Qarabag FC – Chelsea Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Wednesday, 05.11.2025 at 6:45 p.m.
If the Londoners remain true to what we have seen from them so far, then my Qarabag Chelsea tip can only be a complete success.
In the Interwetten app, I am speculating that the Blues will seamlessly continue their run of 10 Champions League goals from just two games against their upcoming opponents.
And yes, the Premier League club will rotate a lot – already in 2025/26, no other club has used as many different players (25) in the Champions League.
But no matter who coach Enzo Maresca decides to field, in the end, you can probably count on his team to master the task ahead.
My optimism regarding my Qarabag FC Chelsea bet grows when you look at how the underdog has fared against English Premier League teams so far – namely, disastrously.
The record speaks for itself and leaves little room for hope.
Qarabag has lost all seven games against English teams in Europe, conceding a whopping 21 goals and scoring only once – and that was from a penalty against Tottenham in September 2015.
Since then, the Azerbaijani champions have failed to score in all six subsequent matches against English opponents.
Qarabag FC – Chelsea Prediction & Bets
Based on my own thoughts, I have a really promising Qarabag FC Chelsea tip for you – two, in fact.
I expect a final score of 3-1 or possibly even 4-1 for the Londoners.
My first betting recommendation is therefore a Chelsea win & both teams to score. Especially since the Azerbaijanis have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 European home games – so a consolation goal should definitely be on the cards.
However, my focus is on the first half, which is why I also have half-time/full-time 2-2 at odds of around 1.98 on my radar.
After all, the Londoners have scored six of their last seven Champions League goals before the break.
What you need to consider when betting on Qarabag FC vs. Chelsea
- Only in 2 of Qarabag’s last 8 competitive games have both teams scored.
- Qarabag has scored two or more goals in 4 of its last 5 European home games.
- Six of Chelsea’s seven Champions League goals this season have been scored before halftime.
- None of Chelsea’s last 51 European Cup games have ended goalless (0-0).
- Chelsea have lost their last three UCL away games. The only time they had a run of four consecutive defeats was in the 2004/05 season.
Qarabag FC – Chelsea: AI tip & odds analysis
Blues coach Enzo Maresca is likely to make more use of rotation players in Wednesday’s Champions League match. Our Qarabag Chelsea AI prediction has taken this into account when determining the best scenarios for player bets.
That’s why our data model recommends choosing Estevao to score at odds of around 2.80, depending on the sports betting app you use.
The Brazilian youngster, who often moves up to the starting lineup internationally, already scored against Ajax on the last matchday and could become the first South American aged 18 or younger to score in two consecutive Champions League games.
Our AI also favors over 2.5 goals at odds of around 1.52. And since none of the 51 European Cup games ended in a goalless draw, I would even go one step further.
Although our Qarabag Chelsea AI prediction does not cover over 3.5 goals, I personally have a lot of confidence in this type of bet.
Especially since the English team’s strong rotation should favor a lively game with goals on both sides.
The best odds for Qarabag FC vs. Chelsea
The betting odds for Qarabag FC vs. Chelsea are clearly distributed – it looks like a clear favorite.
A home win for Qarabag is listed at 7.50, meaning only a 12-13 percent chance of occurring. Anyone hoping for a big surprise here will get a really fat return if they are successful.
A draw is listed at 5.25, which means a roughly 17 percent chance. At least in theory, this is possible if Chelsea misses early chances and Qarabag plays defensively.
A Chelsea win is listed at 1.38 – odds that clearly show where the bookmakers think the game is headed. Around a 72 percent probability clearly favors the English, who are far superior both individually and tactically.
Bottom line: daring sports betting fans with the courage to take risks can speculate on a surprise – everyone else is unlikely to bet against a London victory given the difference in quality.
Qarabag FC vs Chelsea match analysis:
The Londoners will rotate their squad heavily in this game, as they have so much depth that even their second string is superior to Qarabag FC in terms of quality.
However, this should not detract from the expected course of the game – on the contrary: with fresh legs and players eager to prove themselves, it should be a lively match.
Coach Enzo Maresca has shown so far that he can bring clear structures and goal-scoring threat to the pitch even with changed lineups.
His international record speaks for itself: including the Club World Cup, Chelsea have won 20 of 23 international games under his leadership, scoring in all 23 games and averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the other hand, Qarabag is going into this match with growing confidence.
The Azerbaijanis have already picked up six out of a possible nine points in this Champions League season – a big improvement on their last appearance in 2017/18, when they only won two of their six games.
In addition, with six goals in three games, they have already tripled their goal tally from that season.
The bottom line is that Chelsea are likely to dominate proceedings, but Qarabag will not be hiding. Especially in phases when the Londoners take their foot off the gas, the hosts could strike back – perhaps even scoring a consolation goal in what promises to be an entertaining game.
Qarabag FC form check
Things are going almost perfectly for Qarabag at the moment. They are back in contention for the title in their domestic league, and the team has also made the best start ever in the Champions League with two wins from their first three games.
Although they recently suffered a 1-3 defeat against Athletic Bilbao, overall they are in strong form and the team looks solid.
Particularly impressive: Qarabag have not conceded a goal in five games as hosts and have already beaten Copenhagen 2-0 on this pitch (4 wins, 1 draw).
The team impresses above all with its discipline, tactical organization, and efficiency in front of goal. Defensively, Qarabag is compact, and the run without conceding a goal gives them additional confidence.
There are no significant injury concerns, which allows coach Qurban Qurbanov to stick with his well-rehearsed starting lineup.
With this stability and the momentum from the league, the underdog could surprise again – especially at home, where the team is currently incredibly difficult to beat.
Chelsea form check
Chelsea comes to Azerbaijan with powerful momentum. Six wins from their last seven competitive games, most recently a 1-0 win at Tottenham – their form is clearly on the up.
This shows how consistent the Blues are at the moment. Only their away form in the Champions League is dampening the mood somewhat – three consecutive away defeats, most recently a 3-1 loss in Munich, are an unfamiliar sight for Chelsea.
A fourth defeat in a row in Europe’s premier competition would be the first such run since 2005.
Nevertheless, the mood is positive, as the balance between defense and offense is just right. There are no major injury concerns, so Maresca has almost a full squad to choose from.
The focus is clearly on carrying the momentum from the Premier League into away games in Europe.
In this form, Chelsea are one of the most dangerous teams in the current group stage – and finally want to show their true colors as a top club away from home again.
