Marseille – Atalanta Bergamo Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Wednesday, 05.11.2025 at 9:00 p.m.
It’s child’s play to decide on a great free bet, but it’s much harder to be an Atalanta fan these days. Believe me, I know what I’m talking about.
A club that once played the most exciting attacking soccer in Europe is now playing a string of 0-0 or 1-1 draws – and that’s only when they score at all.
According to my Marseille Atalanta Bergamo tip, that should come to an end on Wednesday – at least the northern Italians’ stubborn streak of under 2.5 goals per game.
Facts such as the fact that Olympique, for example, has only kept a clean sheet in two of its last 24 Champions League games also reinforce my assumption that the game will be high-scoring.
I prefer a goal bet on a good sports betting app simply because I don’t want to bet directly against my favorite team – even if, from a purely rational point of view, that would be the right thing to do!
This is because Atalanta, which is already struggling at the moment, has not won any of its four away games against Ligue 1 teams so far (2 draws, 2 defeats).
The Bergamaschi shared the points with Lyon (September 2017) and Marseille (May 2024) in the Europa League, but lost twice to PSG in the Champions League (August 2020 and September 2025).
Marseille – Atalanta Bergamo Prediction & Betting
You know, in terms of goals, anything can happen in this game, but with my betting plan Atalanta: Over 1.5 goals, I should have a particularly good chance of success. I like the odds of around 2.42 – and the Italians’ tendencies too!
Even if it has rarely paid off so far, “La Dea” is the Champions League club with the most shots (22) ahead of this matchday. With a little more luck and consistency in front of goal, they could score twice this time.
Over 3.5 goals is my second personal Marseille Atalanta tip, because I definitely expect resistance. In my opinion, a 2-2 draw is much more likely than a possible shutout victory for the Bergamaschi at the Velodrome.
What you need to consider when betting on Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo
- The last two meetings between Marseille and Atalanta took place in the semifinals of the 2023/24 UEFA Europa League. Marseille were eliminated after a 1-1 draw at home and a 0-3 defeat in Italy.
- Atalanta has not won any of its four games against French teams outside Italy (2 draws, 2 losses).
- Marseille coach Roberto De Zerbi has lost seven of his nine games against Atalanta (1 win, 1 draw).
- Marseille is unbeaten in its last eight home games in major European competitions (7 wins, 2 draws).
- Atalanta has lost only two of 11 games in the UEFA Champions League group/league phase since the start of last season (5 wins, 4 draws).
- Only Inter Milan (10) and Arsenal (8) have kept more clean sheets than Atalanta in the first round of the UCL league phase during the same period.
Marseille – Atalanta Bergamo: AI tip & odds analysis
While I prefer to hold back on a 1X2 scenario, our Marseille Atalanta Bergamo AI prediction clearly shows its colors in this regard – and how!
One of the reasons for recommending Marseille/Marseille is that the French side were behind for only 9% of their total Champions League playing time in 2025/26 (28 minutes).
With odds of around 3.30 for this possible outcome, I’m not going to say “no” to it outright…
Atalanta is one of only three teams to have both taken at least 45 shots on goal and conceded at least 45 shots on goal in this Champions League season.
That’s precisely why our AI also recommends the selection Over 2.5 goals at odds of around 1.67 – even if I personally would go one goal further in this regard!
Charles De Ketelaere to score at average Marseille Atalanta Bergamo betting odds of around 4.40 is, last but not least, a player bet that I can absolutely stand by.
After all, the Belgian created 6+ chances for the Bergamaschi for the second time in a row on the last matchday – none of his teammates are even close to being as active as he is!
The best odds for Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo
Let’s take a look at the betting markets together to see what the Marseille Atalanta Bergamo odds are and what the best sports betting providers think. The match promises to be exciting – and the numbers confirm exactly that.
The odds for a Marseille home win are 2.05, which corresponds to a probability of around 48 percent. The French are therefore slight favorites going into the game, mainly thanks to home advantage and the strong atmosphere at the Stade Vélodrome.
A draw is priced at 3.60, with a probability of around 26 percent. These odds are quite attractive when you consider that both teams are strong in attack but not always solid in defense.
A win for Atalanta Bergamo is priced at 3.40 – according to the odds, this corresponds to a probability of around 29 percent. The bookmakers therefore believe that the Italians will keep the game open and seriously challenge the favorites.
Bottom line: The Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo odds point to a close contest, with every bet justified – ideal for those looking for a balance between risk and value.
Marseille vs Atalanta Bergamo match analysis:
Marseille will notice, at the latest when building up play, that they are currently struggling with numerous absences. Nevertheless, I expect the hosts at the Velodrome to dictate the game and come out strong from the start.
The French often perform at their best at home.
So you can expect OM to have a lot of possession, combined with vertical passes to Igor Paixao, who is currently one of the team’s most dangerous offensive options.
Paixao has already scored three goals in this Champions League season – the last player to score more goals for Marseille in a campaign was Andre Ayew in 2011/12 (4 goals).
On the other hand, Atalanta will try to succeed with quick transitions. Marseille must therefore be particularly attentive to counterattacks, as the Italians are known for their speed in offense.
Despite the absences, the hosts have enough quality to close down the spaces and shape the game according to their wishes.
Even in the best-case scenario, the Bergamaschi would have difficulty securing the greater share of possession because, with De Roon possibly injured, they lack a organizing force in midfield.
Marseille form check
Marseille gave themselves some breathing room with a 1-0 win in Auxerre, but the last few weeks have been marked by a clear dip in form.
Before their Ligue 1 success, the team went three games without a win (1 draw, 2 defeats), including a bitter 2-1 defeat to Sporting, in which they conceded the knockout goal late on.
At least Marseille can rely on their home strength: they have remained unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 competitive games at their own stadium (12 wins, two draws) – including a clear 4-0 win against Ajax, their highest Champions League victory since 2010.
Nevertheless, the southern French team is plagued by acute personnel problems that could force them to rotate their squad. Added to this is Emerson’s suspension, which forces coach De Zerbi to improvise, especially defensively.
Atalanta Bergamo form check
Atalanta is currently playing below its potential, especially as the 0-1 defeat to Udinese abruptly ended an already unsatisfactory run of five consecutive draws.
ATA has remained unbeaten in eight of its last nine competitive games, but the team often looks sluggish and lacks punch in attack.
In the Champions League, however, the record is impressive: five wins, four draws, and only two defeats from the last eleven league games, plus six clean sheets – so defensively, they are extremely reliable.
However, their poor away form is a cause for concern: they have won only one competitive game at a foreign stadium this season, and, as already mentioned, Atalanta have never won in France (two draws, two defeats).
Marten De Roon is also at risk of missing out with muscle problems, and as I have already noted, this would significantly impair the Italians’ ball circulation in midfield…
