Ligue 1, Friday, 12.04.2024
I have scoured the offers of various soccer betting providers this weekend specifically for matches in which the respective underdog enjoys the home advantage – and has been given far too high odds to win.
In view of the starting position and the strength of the home side, who are fighting for every point, my Metz Lens betting tip on Friday is therefore an absolute “betting priority” …
Dark clouds are gathering in beautiful Lorraine, thickening the soccer skies over the region’s strongest club.
As the only relegation candidate from the second half of the table, FC Metz have lost each of their last three matches. Not exactly the best conditions for successfully averting a return to Ligue 2.
And then there are the terrible statistics! Only one of the last 19 clubs, who like FCM had exactly 23 points on matchday 28, managed to stay in the league after all.
Incidentally, this was FC Martigues in the 1993/94 season – and this was only due to the fact that Olympique Marseille were relegated in the same season …
However, FCM are much better than the sports betting providers would have you believe with their Metz Lens odds.
With Monaco (2:5) and Brest (3:4), the team from Lorraine recently had to deal with two potential Champions League contenders for the upcoming 2024/25 season.
Lens, on the other hand, are clearly favored in the markets on Friday evening, but in retrospect have only managed one point from their last three Ligue 1 appearances against Nice (1:3), Lille (1:2) and Le Havre (1:1)
It’s precisely because Lens are the unfounded favorites with the bookmakers, in my opinion, that it might be worth taking a double chance 1X bet here.
After all, FC Metz have not lost any of their last five home games against the RCL (3 wins, 2 draws) and have not even conceded a goal in the last four of these duels.
In addition, I have gained the impression over the last few weeks that “Sang et Or” has dropped off massively compared to the previous season.
Lois Openda’s move to Leipzig in particular has left a lasting impression …
Don’t be blinded by the fact that RCL are currently in sixth place. According to the findings of data analysts, the visitors actually deserve a place in the middle of the table, eleventh to be precise.
That’s where Lens would be as soon as the xG value, which stands for the quality of chances created, is included in the calculations.
Elye See Wahi is Sang et Or’s top scorer with seven goals to date, but is by no means capable of creating the same amount of movement in front of the opposing box as Lois Openda once did. So FC Metz have a real chance to score on Friday!
And even if you don’t want to go so far as to believe that the home side will win a point, you could at least be convinced that it makes sense to bet on both teams meeting.
After all, FC Metz have netted in each of their last four Ligue 1 home games and could now record their longest such run since November 2019, when they last achieved this feat in five consecutive matches.
The relegation battle has certainly ensured that the Lorraine side will give it their all in the final straight – and judging by the recent high-scoring encounters against Monaco and Brest, it could well be goals galore this time too.
I’m keeping my Metz Lens betting tip rather simple, but the user-friendly Interwetten app can also be used to place a more sophisticated soccer bet.
For example, the DC-1X bet, which is at the top of my list of priorities, can easily be combined with the BTS option mentioned earlier to generate extremely generous total odds of around 3.66.
I think it’s also likely that the Lorraine side will come away with something worthwhile because they’ve always done well in this Ligue 1 pairing in recent years.
Metz have taken 11 points from their last six encounters with RCL, which is as many as from their previous 14 matches combined
Conclusion: I think the bookmakers’ decision to favor the RCL on Friday is a fatal mistake.
After all, FC Metz not only won the first-round duel, but also usually put in their best performances of the season in their own stadium.
Of course, the last few weeks have not gone according to plan for the team from Lorraine, but driven by the fear of relegation, they should still perform better than the Metz Lens odds might initially suggest.
My Metz Lens betting tip is therefore: Double chance 1X.
