Conference League knockout phase, quarter-final second leg, Thursday, 18.04.2024
Thursday’s UEFA Conference quarter-final second leg is a clash between third-placed Greece and Belgium. So there should be plenty of entertainment at the Toumba Stadium.
My PAOK Saloniki Bruges betting tip, which I place in the Bwin app, explains why both sides are likely to score goals
Bruges can reach a semi-final in the European Cup for the fifth time on Thursday, the last one dating back to 1992, when they advanced to the semi-finals of the Cup Winners’ Cup.
It would be the first European semi-final in the club’s history for the host Black & Whites of PAOK.
Meanwhile, the Belgians won the first leg last week by a narrow but deserved 1-0 margin. The Bruges side had 12:6 shots on goal and a 61:39% share of possession
The early 1:0 (6th minute) by Bruges midfielder Hugo Vetlesen ultimately proved to be the winning goal in the hard-fought match.
The Blue & Blacks also had a successful dress rehearsal at the weekend with a 3:0 play-off home win against the reigning Belgian champions Royal Antwerp.
The team from picturesque Bruges is unbeaten in four games across all competitions (3S, 1U) and has only conceded two goals in those games
The fact that Brugge are unbeaten in their three competitive matches with PAOK so far (1S, 2U) also speaks in favor of the Belgians progressing.
Neither of the two traditional clubs has scored more than one goal in their previous meetings.
However, the fact that PAOK (21) and Bruges (20) are the two most prolific teams in the current UECL season speaks for a high-scoring game
This is the highest-scoring season in European history for the northern Greeks, while Club Brugge have only scored more goals in the European Cup once (21 in 2014/15).
The hosts from Thessaloniki were without a game last weekend and will therefore be fresher, albeit less experienced.
PAOK won their last home game against a Belgian opponent 1-0 against KAA Gent in the UECL round of 16 in 2022
The only other such home game was a 1-1 draw in the Europa League group stage in December 2010.
The fact that Brugge have yet to win an away game in Greece (3U, 3N) should give the Greeks hope.
The Macedonians are also adept at comebacks, having won four of the last six meetings in which they have lost an away first leg
This was also the case in this year’s UECL round of 16, when the “double-headed eagles of the north” first lost 2-0 at Dinamo Zagreb, only to put the Croatians in their place with a 5-1 victory in the second leg in front of a home crowd.
In general, Razvan Lucescu’s men are extremely strong at home in this year’s UECL season.
Including the qualifiers, PAOK are unbeaten in eight UECL home games (5S, 3U), the longest European unbeaten streak in PAOK’s history.
PAOK have scored at least two goals in each of their last six matches
Another point in the Greek hosts’ favor is the fact that they can count on the most combative player in the current UECL season.
The Franco-Ivorian eighth man Soualiho Meïté has a 76% tackle rate (34/45), no other player with at least 40 tackles has achieved such a figure.
The duel between the two-headed eagle and the blue and blacks offers some promising betting opportunities.
It was therefore even difficult for me to decide on a PAOK Saloniki Bruges bet!
Due to the offensive strength of both teams in Europe and the “higher stakes” in the decisive second leg, I recommend betting on goals from both teams.
The sports betting providers are offering decent odds of around 1.68 on this event.
The Greeks are likely to play with an open goal from the outset and sooner or later convert their firepower into goals, while their own defense is not good enough to defend the spaces opened up by the offensive drive and not concede a goal.
The Black & Whites have always conceded at least one goal in their last seven competitive matches, while Bruges have always scored at least one goal in their last nine competitive matches.
Therefore, I recommend the event “both teams to score” at Bwin as your PAOK Saloniki Bruges betting tip
