Taca de Portugal, semi-final second leg, Wednesday, 17.04.2024
“Os Conquistadores” could live up to their nickname on Wednesday and conquer the Estádio do Dragão for a second time in a row! Just under a week ago, the visitors were able to spring a big surprise.
Meanwhile, my FC Porto Vitoria de Guimaraes betting tip, which I placed with a well-known soccer betting provider shortly before the second leg, tries to answer the question of whether this success in the league competition can also be transferred to the cup second leg
When you recently saw Porto fight like lions against Arsenal in the Champions League, you wouldn’t think that FCP would have stopped playing a role in the Portuguese championship race any time soon.
But in fact, the Tripeiros are so far behind for the first time since the 2015/16 season that any hope of catching Sporting would be in vain. After all, they are already 15 points behind the league leaders.
The Taca de Portugal is therefore a top priority for the “Dragoes” until the end of the season – and the signs are indeed good that they will at least be able to add this trophy to their own trophy cabinet for the 2023/24 season
The competition has already reached the semi-final stage and one of the two finalists has already been decided.
Surprisingly, SCP qualified for the final on May 26 from the match between Sporting and Benfica.
By the way: Football fans should mark this date in red in their calendars, because just two weeks later, on June 14, the European Championship 2024 starts in Germany, which my betting friends and I are really looking forward to!
Back to the Taca de Portugal: From this stage onwards, as we all know, first and second legs are played. And in the first clash around two weeks ago, Porto were able to live up to their role as favorites on the markets.
FCP managed to win the first leg 1-0 at Vitoria Guimaraes, so far so good.
But just four days later, as the schedule would have it, the two teams faced each other in the Portuguese league. And there, the fifth-placed team suddenly won 2:1 at the same venue where the cup second leg will be played on Wednesday.
Of course, this 2-1 defeat for FC Porto has no effect on the situation in the cup, where they still lead 1-0. But there are doubts as to whether Vitora SC can really be brushed aside as easily as the bookmakers are currently suggesting.
Personally, both games have shown me that the FCP win odds, which are again below the threshold for a profitable single bet of around 1.50, are simply not worth the risk.
After all, Guimaraes are not in fifth place in the league by chance and in neither of the two April games between the two clubs did Porto achieve an xG value above 1.00 (!).
I doubt whether the big sensation is possible now! However, given the choice, I would stick more to the guests on my betting slip, who have also had a really great series!
After all, Guimaraes have won five of their last six games in the Portuguese league, giving them plenty of confidence to be able to assert themselves a second time in the “Dragon’s Nest” within a week.
Personally, I’m leaning towards a tip 2 with HC +2 here, as it can be placed using the Interwetten app at odds of around 1.73 and is therefore even more profitable than a clumsy home win bet
Bold sports betting fans could go one step further by clicking on a double chance X2 bet, which would earn them a whopping 3.00 if successful.
Finally, for the more daring, I would recommend taking up the “Vitoria Guimaraes qualifies” offer at Betano Sportwetten at bombastic odds of around 11.25.
It’s a risky maneuver, of course, but one that, if successful, could net you a tidy sum with just a small amount of euros.
What really impresses me is the way Vitoria Guimarares have been defending their sixteen recently.
Once again, Liga Portugal
provides us with an indication that it’s no coincidence that Porto cut their teeth on the “Conquistadores'” defense several times in April.
The season is almost over and Vitoria Guimaraes (14) is the club that has conceded the second-fewest away goals in the league!
Fewer than Sporting (16) and even fewer than Benfica Lisbon (17) – only Porto can beat them (13).
Consequently, I’m also focusing on an under 3.5 goals bet for Wednesday, which promises a relatively good payout with an average of 1.50.
Conclusion: The game is far from over!
The visitors are defending extremely well, have been on a winning streak in the league and proved themselves capable of beating FC Porto just a few days ago.
This win in the league in particular showed me that the second finalist in the 2023/24 Taca de Portugal is far from certain and that it’s worth SC Vitoria fans believing in their boys.
My Porto Vitoria de Guimaraes prediction: Away win with handicap +2
