Copa America, Group D, Saturday, 29.06.2024 at 03:00
Copa America 2024? Copa America 2024! There are actually some people who are only concerned with the current European Championship and completely ignore the continental tournament “on the other side of the world”.
True to the motto: “What do I care about the undergrowth behind the next corner”. Not so the betting fans. Not me personally.
So I present to you my Paraguay Brazil betting tip, which revolves around the piquant question of how inferior the Paraguayans will actually be in the end.
The fact is that with my bet “Brazil to win without conceding a goal”, I don’t even think the underdogs will score a goal. Exaggerated? Let’s see
You will realize in the course of my analysis that this assessment is primarily related to the Paraguayans’ offensive problems.
The Brazilians have by no means been defensive specialists in the recent past.
Ultimately, however, the difference in the quality of the – erh – players is likely to prove so significant that a lot would have to come together for Brazil to come under serious pressure – or even just concede a goal
The betting operators’ forecast?
Although the five-time world champions are currently not in a very stable phase, the Paraguay Brazil odds speak for themselves.
It is hardly worth betting on a Brazilian victory with a single bet. The 1.40 offered for this is simply not lucrative enough.
At the same time, I can only advise you against considering the double-digit odds for a Paraguay victory. The underdog is simply too weak for that.
I can guarantee you that the Paraguayans will not play a major role in the Copa America 2024. Fittingly, the currently busy European Championship betting providers don’t even trust the Guaranies to draw. The odds of 5.20 for a draw leave no questions unanswered
Analysis: Paraguay vs Brazil
To get straight to the point: With the 2-1 defeat to Colombia on matchday 1, Paraguay’s fate in Group A is basically sealed.
Unlike at EURO 2024, only the top two teams in each group qualify for the first knockout round at the Copa.
If Paraguay lose to Brazil and Colombia score against Costa Rica, their elimination would therefore already be certain after matchday 2. Of course, none of this is surprising.
Above all, Paraguay’s offense is currently in the second tier at best in international comparison. Fittingly: In the last 17 games, they have only managed to score more than one goal on two occasions.
The bookmakers are correspondingly skeptical ahead of the match against Brazil. Top bookmakers such as Oddset are offering odds of around 2.00 for just one goal from the underdogs
Despite the clean sheet against Costa Rica, the question on the Brazilian side is less whether Dorival Junior’s team will make it through the group stage than whether they are actually capable of winning the title.
The fact is that the Selecao have already had limited success in the run-up to the Copa America 2024. Defeats in the World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina speak for themselves.
However, the Brazilians were able to recharge their batteries with recent performances against the co-favorites for the European Championship, England (1:0) and Spain (3:3).
Interesting: They have scored at least two goals in two of their last four games. If they manage to do the same against Paraguay, you can get odds of around 1.50.
Analysis of odds
If you take a closer look at the Paraguay Brazil odds, it becomes clear that the big bookmakers only have limited faith in the underdog to score.
The classic “Both teams to score” has well above-average odds of around 2.10. If you combine these odds with the 1.75 for “Over 2.5 goals”, you can say that Betano and Co. favor an extremely one-sided game.
Inevitably, the focus shifts to the result bets, where, curiously enough, a 1-0 win for the Brazilians is considered the most likely outcome.
The odds for this only rise to 6.10. However, the 2:0 for Brazil is only listed slightly higher (6.40) and would be my tip of choice if I had to decide on a result.
In fact, I assume that Paraguay will only concede in the second half and concede the majority of the goals. With odds of just under 2.40, the “draw at half-time” bet is undoubtedly a strong alternative bet
Brazil and the difficult Copa ratio
If we look at the Copa America statistics, the first big surprise is not far away.
In fact, the relationship between Brazil and the Copa cannot necessarily be described as a love affair. The Selecao have “only” won nine titles so far.
By comparison, arch-rivals Argentina and Uruguay have 15 triumphs each. Paraguay, of course, can only dream of such successes.
They have a total of two titles to their name (1953 and 1979). The last time they reached the final was in 2011, where they lost 3-0 to Uruguay.
Many goals – or few goals?
From a Paraguayan perspective, the statistics of the head-to-head comparison are unsurprisingly not good news.
In fact, Paraguay have only won eleven of the 82 encounters so far. In addition, they have 21 draws and 49 defeats on their record.
It is therefore fitting that the Brazilians were able to record a clear win in their last match to date. In the course of the 2020-22 World Cup qualifiers, the favorites clearly won 4:0 in front of their home crowd.
All in all, it is noticeable that Brazil did not have any major problems in the last qualifying matches against Paraguay.
The bet “Brazil to win without conceding a goal” would have led to success in each of the last three meetings in the World Cup qualifiers.
However, the most recent Copa America comparisons paint a completely different picture. The two national teams met in the quarter-finals of the continental tournament in 2011, 2015 and 2019
And each time it went to penalties. Paraguay came out on top twice. Most recently, the Brazilians won 4:3.
Strikingly, Paraguay failed to score against Brazil in regulation time in two of those three matches.
The truth is, however, that Brazil’s last Copa win against Paraguay without extra time was some time ago. In 2001, the favorites won 3:1 at the tournament in Colombia.
My tip:
Before I turn my attention back to Euro 2024, I owe you one more conclusion: Brazil are quite rightly the clear favorites against Paraguay. There can be no doubt about that. I know – what a groundbreaking insight.
However, the fact that this is the case is largely due to the underdog’s weak offense and not to Brazil itself. That is worth a mention.
As we have seen, the Paraguayans have major problems initiating a meaningful build-up play. As a result, top-class goalscoring opportunities are in short supply. Goals mostly come from set-pieces or chance productions.
Accordingly, I do not believe that the Brazilians can be put under pressure in the long term in this way.
Therefore, my Paraguay Brazil tip is: The Brazilians win and don’t concede a goal
