Paris Saint-Germain – Borussia Dortmund betting tip
This, my dear friends, is a very tricky task that Borussia is facing!
Especially as very few in the black-and-yellow fan scene will have forgotten just how dominant the hosts were back in September on their last visit to the Prinzenpark.
For my part, my PSG Dortmund prediction for the second leg of the Champions League semi-final is that the French side will completely turn around the 0-1 scoreline from a week ago
There are plenty of reasons to share my optimism regarding a successful comeback by the hosts and therefore also a sports betting provider with the intention of placing a corresponding PSG Dortmund tip.
If only because the French association has shown maximum consideration for the country’s strongest club.
While Borussia celebrated an outstanding victory in Augsburg, the footballers from the city of love were given the weekend off to prepare for the second leg.
The bookmakers’ forecast
I believe it, so do many experts – and now apparently even the German bookmakers!
For example, even the bookie Sunmaker, which we recently rated as good, has published PSG Dortmund odds that underline the host’s role as favorites.
With a value of around 1.50, the PSG win odds lead to a payout that is around 10 times lower than if Borussia were to win at the Prinzenpark after the first leg.
Analysis: PSG vs Dortmund
Dortmund were able to recharge their batteries last weekend.
They were able to celebrate an outstanding 5-1 win against Augsburg while still resting regular players such as Niclas Füllkrug, Jadon Sancho and Emre Can for the second leg against Paris.
Borussia should definitely be well rested, as the upcoming task will be difficult enough as it is.
Watch out: Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain have already met three times in Europe, and each time Dortmund have visited, they have gone home without a win (1 draw, 2 defeats).
This season, in September, they were beaten 2-0 away by the French side and only managed to get the ball on target once
PSG, on the other hand – as already mentioned – were able to work on themselves undisturbed at the weekend in order to celebrate the kind of uncomplicated start-to-finish victory against Borussia on Tuesday that is surprisingly rare at the Parc des Princes.
Paris Saint-Germain have trailed for longer (339 minutes) than they have led (291 minutes) in the Champions League this season.
They have also consistently conceded the first goal of the game in each of their last three games in the competition and have not conceded, which is their longest such run since April 2015 (4 games). So BVB fans have reason to hope!
Those of you who register with Betway via the link below can also hope. The top bookmaker not only offers you the tried-and-tested Joker combo of up to €100, but also the chance to win 2 VIP tickets for the Frankfurt v Leipzig match
Analysis of odds
Personally, I have three possible scenarios circling in my head, all of which could end up on the same combi ticket, where they probably belong!
I’m toying with the idea of selecting a goal from Mbappe together with a win for France without conceding a goal. A 2:0 or even a 3:0 is quite conceivable.
For the combination of the three scenarios above, you can expect lucrative odds of around 4.20 in the betting shop in the event of success.
PSG doomed to score goals?
Just as Borussia’s notorious UCL home strength proved itself statistically in the first leg, Paris should at least be able to score a week later. Because this also seems to be a regularity that can be derived from the amount of data.
Paris Saint-Germain have only failed to score twice in their last 38 home matches in the top flight (a staggering 93 goals have been scored in this period).
Also interesting: FC Bayern Munich were the only team to keep a clean sheet against the million-strong side on both occasions (1-0 in February 2023 and April 2021)
PSG: It’s all about Kylian Mbappe!
I still remember the first leg very well, when Kylian Mbappe fired a wonderful shot that kissed the inside of the post but still wouldn’t cross the goal line. Immediately afterwards, PSG hit the bar again!
This time, however, Borussia were unable to withstand the French side’s constant pressure, which they had already felt in the group stage, for 90 minutes.
On their last visit to the Parc des Princes in September 2023, the xG ratio of 2.15 to 0.54 was already a strong indicator of the Parisians’ superiority in terms of play
The fact that Kylian Mbappe scored in the 2:0 home win against Borussia during the group stage is also a great opportunity for a corresponding goal bet with bookmaker Oddset.
The Paris Saint-Germain striker has been directly involved in 32 goals in 31 home matches in which he has started in the Champions League (21 goals, 11 assists).
In fact, only once before has he failed to score in both games of a knockout round of the competition in which he played from the start (against Real Madrid in the round of 16 in 2017/18).
But the Frenchman is not just an enforcer, he’s also a playmaker. In fact, I fully expect almost every significant attacking move to go through the wonder striker.
Mbappe has created the most chances under pressure of any player in the Champions League this season (23), although none of them have been successfully converted by a Paris Saint-Germain team-mate.
Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, who is much more efficient in this regard, is the player with the most assists under pressure (5) in the competition this season.
My PSG Dortmund tip:
There’s a lot at stake for the Parisians! They were also given extra time by the French FA at the weekend to prepare thoroughly for the second leg.
In this cauldron, I personally expect Dortmund to finally collapse under the enormous pressure on Tuesday.
Luis Enrique has put together a really strong team in his short time at the club and with the home crowd behind him and the experience of BVB’s last performance at the Prinzenpark in mind, it could well end up 2-0 to the hosts again.
So my PSG Dortmund tip is: Paris win the game with handicap -1.
