PSG – Real Madrid prediction Club World Cup, semi-final on Wednesday, 09.06.2025 at 21:00
Of course, I would have loved to see an all-German clash between two Bundesliga teams in the second semi-final of the 2025 Club World Cup. However, the “replacement program” quickly consoled me for the failure of Bayern and BVB.
The bookmakers are also pretty certain that today’s clash in East Rutherford will see the next world champion crowned, given the well-known qualities of both teams.
My PSG Real Madrid tip is therefore set for a lot of fun. I expect at least four goals, with neither side letting themselves be held back.
Kylian Mbappe is one man who could be responsible for the hoped-for and expected flood of goals, although he may find himself in a slight moral dilemma in the upcoming match.
Before the 2018 World Cup winner donned the Real jersey, the Frenchman earned his living – and certainly a few extra treats – on the banks of the Seine for many years.
However, given that PSG only really became successful after his departure, this should motivate the 26-year-old to such an extent that a Mbappe goal on Wednesday evening seems inevitable.
In any case, that’s what our AI predicts in its PSG Real Madrid forecast. But my detailed preview and analysis has a lot more betting ideas to offer!
PSG – Real Madrid Prediction & Betting
To be honest, I do feel a little reckless after thoroughly weighing up the options and deciding to bet on at least four goals in addition to a “BTS.”
However, since PSG Real tips on either team seem a little risky, the odds of 2.60 I am aiming for seem quite lucrative when considering the cost/benefit ratio.
However, the unusually high odds for Madrid make me lean quite clearly towards the Spanish side in my other tips. Even the prediction that the white ballet will win at least one half is rewarded with 1.8 times the stake here.
The double chance X2, which means that Real Madrid will not lose within regular time, is also definitely worth a recommendation in my opinion, given the odds of 1.65 offered by bookie Betano!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on PSG vs. Real Madrid
- PSG has won its last five games against European teams outside France (twice against Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atlético Madrid, and Bayern Munich) with a total score of 14:1.
- Los Blancos have scored an average of 2.20 goals per game in this tournament, exceeding their xG value by 0.41 per game. Of the teams in the semi-finals, only PSG has a higher average number of goals per game (2.4).
- The average betting odds for a Real Madrid win have only been higher in one game since the end of April. That was the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona, which Real drew 2-2 but lost after extra time.
- Real Madrid knocked Paris Saint-Germain out of the 2021/22 Champions League round of 16 with a 3-2 aggregate score. Kylian Mbappé scored both goals for PSG in those games.
- Vitinha leads the Club World Cup in terms of accurate long passes per 90 minutes (10.08). The PSG midfielder is second behind Rodri (104.1) in terms of accurate passes per game (103.2). Real Madrid’s Luka Modric is third with 100.5 accurate passes.
PSG – Real Madrid: odds analysis
Regardless of the competition, there are few games in football that currently promise as much excitement as PSG against Real Madrid. The Club World Cup semi-final promises to be an exciting duel, which will probably motivate even the artificial intelligence we surveyed to come up with particularly “well-thought-out” betting tips this time.
However, the first PSG Real Madrid tip is characterized by a certain degree of caution, and with an expectation of over 2.5 goals, it is undoubtedly one of the low-risk bets.
The fact that at least three goals will be scored in regular 90 minutes is only good for odds just above the magic 1.5 mark, even among German bookmakers.
The game has an added dimension as Kylian Mbappé faces his former club. The Frenchman played a key role in the last meeting between these two teams in the 2021/22 Champions League round, scoring both goals for PSG before Real Madrid eventually won 3-2 on aggregate.
On Wednesday evening, there seems to be a lot to suggest that the Frenchman will score against his compatriots and former colleagues after switching sides. Our in-house AI is also predicting a Mbappe goal at any time at odds of 2.20.
At the last minute, the AI’s PSG Real predictions are going all in – fittingly, at exactly the point when the game enters the high-risk zone.
For the not-so-far-fetched assumption that both teams will score at least one goal in each half, the best bookmakers have settled on odds in the range of 8.00 to 9.00…
The best odds for PSG vs. Real Madrid
After 12 competitive matches between the two teams, Real Madrid has a narrow 5-4 lead, but that may not even survive the upcoming rematch.
If the betting providers, who are generally undecided, have to choose a favorite here, they prefer to give the vacant role to the French with odds of just over 2.3.
Fans of Los Blancos are thus being enticed with odds that haven’t been seen in a long time. After all, a win after 90 minutes would return almost three times the stake.
However, this value is easily surpassed by the “X odds,” which are currently relatively stable at around 3.65.
PSG vs. Real Madrid match analysis:
Whoever wins this semi-final will start as favourites in the Club World Cup final. PSG are the reigning Champions League winners and face a Real Madrid side that has earned a reputation as the dominant force on the continent over the past decades.
Luis Enrique’s style of play has earned him and his team much praise in recent months. The rotating three strikers and the tireless work ethic in defense promise an exciting duel with Real Madrid, who seem to be approaching their best form under Xabi Alonso.
Real have scored in all five of their Club World Cup games, averaging 2.2 goals per game. In their victories over Dortmund and Juventus, the Spaniards had five clear-cut chances, four more than their opponents in both games.
Los Blancos have played different formations in this tournament, and it will be interesting to see how they line up here. Keeping Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desire Doue in check will be no easy task.
Trent Alexander-Arnold will have his hands full at right-back for Real, but he could prove to be a decisive factor at both ends of the pitch.
PSG also have very active full-backs. Achraf Hakimi ranks among the top 3% of full-backs in Europe’s top five leagues in the categories of goals without penalties, assists, progressive passes, and goal-scoring assists.
Nuno Mendes has also emerged as one of the leading players in this position. This creativity from deep has enabled PSG to score an average of 2.4 goals per game in this competition.
The battle on the wings could decide the outcome of this match. Both teams have a wealth of quality at their disposal, so no one can afford to make mistakes here.
Kylian Mbappe scored in the win against Dortmund. The Frenchman has scored 44 competitive goals this season, but he has come in for criticism due to the lack of titles.
Many experts even believe that PSG has benefited from Mbappe’s departure. The striker now has a fantastic opportunity to prove his doubters wrong, which adds extra spice to what is already an exciting duel.
Paris SG form check
PSG has built its Club World Cup campaign on a solid defensive foundation. No team has conceded fewer goals (0.2 per game) or kept more clean sheets than Les Parisiens (4).
Gianluigi Donnarumma has a save percentage of 92.3%, but the real credit goes to the discipline of Luis Enrique’s back line under pressure.
But despite these excellent defensive statistics, the French side have been anything but passive. In terms of expected goals, they are third with 10.0, behind Man City and Bayern, who have both already been eliminated.
With their hard-fought 2-0 victory over Munich in the quarter-finals, they now have a perfect record in their last five international games against European teams, with an aggregate score of 14-1.
What makes the French truly unique and entertaining is the way they move the ball forward. Les Rouge-et-Bleu lead the tournament in the category of accurate long passes (38.2 per game).
Vitinha, who plays in midfield, has become a tactical linchpin with an average of 10.8 accurate long passes and over 100 passes per 90 minutes. He is the driving force behind his team in midfield.
The biggest challenge so far was the quarter-final against Bayern Munich. Despite two red cards, a late goal from Dembele in extra time sealed the fate of the German giants. Only 0.66 xG was conceded against Bayern, who had been one of the most efficient teams in attack in the previous rounds.
In summary, PSG appear more than capable of beating any team in the world. The odds reflect this, as they are slightly in favor of the French side. But of course, anything is possible for Real on the other side of the pitch.
Real Madrid form check
Real Madrid has shown an average offensive performance by its own standards in recent days and weeks, scoring 11 goals from 9.6 xG, which corresponds to a conversion rate of 14.7%.
The Spaniards currently rank fourth in the tournament standings for chances created and sixth for touches in the opponent’s penalty area. That may seem impressive, but it falls far short of expectations for a team like Los Blancos.
The 3-2 win against Borussia Dortmund highlighted both the team’s potential and its weaknesses. Los Blancos took a 2-0 lead within 20 minutes and controlled the game until shortly before the end. But a late comeback from Dortmund exposed weaknesses.
A goal in the 90+3rd minute and a penalty in the 90+8th minute caused unnecessary tension. The team held on, but such mistakes are unlikely to go unpunished against PSG.
Defensively, the Spaniards have conceded four goals at 6.9 xGA this summer – not an alarming figure, but they are not playing at elite level either. Even when they tried to keep the Germans at bay after taking a 2-0 lead, they still allowed 1.39 xG.
Gonzalo Garcia has developed into an important part of the team under Xabi Alonso. With four goals and 2.88 xG, he is one of the most efficient players in the competition.
He is also not afraid to take risks and has had eleven shots on goal (seven of them on target). Gonzalo will play a key role against PSG when it comes to finding the way to goal.
My tip: Both teams to score & Over 3.5 goals
