La Liga, Tuesday, 14.05.2024
At the championship celebration, Carlo Ancelotti made a wish: he wanted to dance with Eduardo Camavinga. In the end, the entire Royal team danced and celebrated their 36th title in the Spanish Primera División.
However, the La Liga season is not officially over yet, so I still have some time for a Real Madrid Alaves tip.
The visitors are playing their first year after promotion and are in a secure mid-table position. The last few weeks of “El Glorioso” have been littered with strong performances, so I’m going for odds of 1.95 for “Alaves to score” at Interwetten.
I would not place a sports betting bonus on a win bet in this game. Real Madrid have already been crowned Spanish champions and, with maximum odds of 1.25 to win, won’t be giving you any big gifts.
Deportivo Alaves has win odds in the lower double-digit range. The form of the visitors is remarkable (3 wins, 1 draw) and could lead to a big surprise
Real Madrid have only lost one league game all season (1:3 against Atlético Madrid). Since the defeat on September 24 last year, Carlo Ancelotti has not lost a night’s sleep over a defeat in La Liga.
The 36-time Spanish record champions have recently celebrated eight league victories in a row, with the Whites going six times without conceding a goal.
Deportivo Alaves, the fastest team in the Spanish Primera División, have registered for the upcoming matchday. No league rival flies across the pitch faster in possession than the promoted side (2.17 m/s).
The quick transition game suits Luis García’s team perfectly. The visitors only scored against Girona (2:2) on the last matchday and even defeated Atlético Madrid (2:0) in mid-April.
After Deportivo Alaves’ attack emerged from its spring slumber and had gone five league games without scoring, the newly promoted side recently scored eight goals in four league games.
The visitors’ form is remarkably good and their defense is one of the four best in the Spanish top flight with 28.23 goals conceded from play
At no point in the season have opposition set-pieces caused “El Glorioso” any heartache (six goals conceded by default) and their wait-and-see approach (14.1 PPDA) has created plenty of space to counter-attack.
According to Soccerment, there are only three league rivals who have scored more expected goals on the counter-attack per 90 minutes than Deportivo Alaves (0.15 xG).
If Real Madrid take a relaxed approach to this match, it could be a close encounter at the Santiago Bernabéu. Is that enough for you to stash this Oddset bonus in odds of 2.05 for “Victory Alaves (HC +2)”?
I wouldn’t want to talk you out of this one. Alaves have finished 94 percent of their away games so far with “Under 2.5 goals conceded” and are not a team that gives up after falling behind.
The 41.5 goals conceded by the visitors is a perfectly acceptable figure for a newly-promoted team, which can be ranked relatively mid-table in the league (12th).
As already mentioned, the cogs in Deportivo Alaves’ attacking play have meshed perfectly of late. This is reflected in the expected goals scored by García’s side, which have been registered at over 1.80 xG in two of their last three league games
It seems as if the newly promoted team has finally found its balance between attack and defense. Defensively, the Alaves players have nothing to blame themselves for. Only five league rivals conceded fewer goals than García’s side (41.3 xGA).
For this occasion, I’ll quickly throw the odds of 1.77 at Happybet into the room, which you can dust off for a bet on “Real Madrid under 2.5 goals”.
This bet definitely has “value”, I’m sure of it. Deportivo Alaves haven’t conceded “Over 2.5 goals” since Feb. 3 (1-3 vs. Barcelona) – that’s twelve league games!
If you think my Real Madrid Alaves tip is absolute rubbish, you can opt for the opposite. If you play “Alaves Under 0.5 goals” in the Crazybuzzer app, you have odds of 1.75.
This route is particularly justifiable because Real Madrid have won 53 percent of their league home games without conceding a goal.
However, since Alaves have scored “Over 1.5 goals” in three of their four previous league games, I would rather bet on “Alaves scores” at the current time and without much motivation from the home side.
I already mentioned the visitors’ counter-attacking strength above. Real Madrid do not always sit securely in the saddle when the opposition switch quickly and, according to Soccerment, only have an average xGA value against counterattacks (0.10 xGA per 90 minutes).
In addition, the newly crowned Spanish champions conceded significantly more expected goals from resting balls (7.30 xGA) than the two standard opposition goals reveal.
Deportivo Alaves are by no means an elite standard team, but have recently sprinkled in several new variations and now stand at a solid seven goals.
Real Madrid already have the Spanish championship in the bag and only one goal in the last three matchdays: to prepare all players for the Champions League final in the best possible way.
Nobody will blame the Whites if they fail to consistently defend every counter-attack by the visitors. That leads to my Real Madrid Alaves tip, which is:
Alaves will score at least one goal
