Real Madrid – Alaves Tip La Liga, Matchday 32 on Tuesday, 21/04/26 at 21:30 CET
Even three goals in the Allianz Arena were not enough to bring the German record champions to their knees! Fans of the royals among you can no longer inaugurate a good sports betting bonus with a Champions League match of their favorite club.
But you shouldn’t let that spoil your mood! For my Real Madrid Alaves tip, I’ll watch a game in which the hosts are now fighting for their last mini chance at the title. Otherwise, they will actually end the 2025/26 season without a trophy!
I’m concentrating primarily on a goal bet, as the win odds for Real have been very low. Much more interesting, on the other hand, is the selection: Both teams score, for which you can expect an average of around 1.83.
Alaves has been extremely dangerous in goal lately, after all, it is important to avoid relegation at all costs. At the same time, Real Madrid have repeatedly revealed weaknesses defensively this season, which significantly increases the chances of goals on both sides …
Real Madrid vs. Alaves AI Predictions:
Our Real Madrid Alaves AI prediction makes it a case for a home win bet, as the Whites have won 13 of their 16 La Liga home games in 2025/26 and are now more in need of three points than ever to stay at least halfway on the Catalans’ heels!
But as mentioned at the beginning, the odds of 1.29 are simply not attractive enough for me. Then it is better to make a combination bet of the type Win Real & Both, which is accompanied by significantly higher values of about 2.57.
But even then, the crucial question would still not have been answered: Is it really worth betting on the Madrid team who were still winless in April (1 draw, 3 defeats) with relatively low win rates?
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Real Madrid |
Draw |
Victory of Alaves |
| 76.3% |
15.1% |
8.6% |
Even the absence of the suspended striker Abderrahmane Rebbach does little to change the fact that Deportivo will actually contribute to a highly entertaining evening of football in my opinion.
In four of his team’s last five La Liga games, this mark has already been exceeded – a clear statistical indication of the offensive orientation. The fear of relegation forces Deportivo to play courageously forward every time anyway!
It is precisely from this observation that I derive another exciting value pick: Deportivo over 1.5 goals at odds around 4.25. Especially in view of the last away game at the Bernabéu, which ended 3-2, this scenario seems anything but absurd.
What you need to know about Real Madrid vs. Alaves betting
- Real’s defensive negligence: The Estadio Bernabéu is not an impregnable fortress this season; Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in 9 of their 16 home matches (56%), which statistically supports the bet on goals from both teams.
- Alavés as goal guarantor: The guests are in impressive shape offensively; after high-scoring games against Real Sociedad (3-3), Osasuna (2-2) and Valencia (3-2), the Basques’ last five league games have all ended in a “both score”.
- Mbappé in record mood: Kylian Mbappé is the outstanding player of the Madrilenians; with 23 goals this season, he leads the scorer list and already proved his coolness in front of the goal in the 2-1 first-leg win against Alavés.
- Important points for Europe and relegation: While Real Madrid (2nd place) wants to take advantage of the blunder of league leader Barcelona, Alavés (17th place) needs every point in the relegation battle to maintain its narrow lead over the relegation ranks.
