Champions League, Tuesday, 04.03.2025 at 21:00
The round of 16 of the Champions League is coming up and we have some cracking matches, including the Spanish top duel between Real and Atletico Madrid. I have the honor of writing the prediction for this first leg for you.
In the play-offs, the Whites flexed their muscles against the disastrous Citizens. However, their dress rehearsal at the weekend went down the drain and their city rivals are in very good form.
In my Real Madrid Atletico Madrid, I expect both teams to score and add the bet at Bet365 that the hosts will not lose the game, i.e. the “double chance 1X”.
I expect a really high-class battle in the Champions League duel between Madrid’s biggest teams! We’ve seen the more consistent results from the Colchoneros in 2025, who have only conceded one defeat.
Real have already dropped points against Espanyol (0:1) and most recently against Betis Sevilla (1:2). They also suffered a heavy defeat against Barcelona in the Super Cup (2:5).
However, a Champions League round of 16 is a different stage and if the hosts play to their potential, I think they are the clear favorites against Atletico. How do the bookmakers rate the situation?
The bookmaker forecast
Real Madrid start the first leg favored at 1.87, those who successfully bet on an away win can quadruple their stake. The draw odds are just under that (3.60). Anyone looking for suitable odds for a combination ticket is well positioned with the “Double chance 1X”.
Real were clearly the better team in the league game a few weeks ago and Diego Simeone’s team are likely to take on a defensive role in the draw at the Bernabeu – and that would be a good starting position ahead of the reunion at the Wanda Metropolitano.
AI prediction Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: ChatGPT
We asked for the AI’s opinion on this top match. ChatGPT also has the goal of both teams on the cards, but suggests this bet as a “low risk” variant. I watched the entire length of the last duel and am convinced by the selection.
Real in particular created a number of chances. In only a few phases of the match did we see midfield skirmishes. Real netting a ball in both halves is the “medium risk” option, for which we already get a whopping 2.90.
The odds are tasty, but too hot for me due to Atletico’s style of play. The Colchoneros have conceded no more than one goal in nine of their last ten games. Only in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final against Barcelona (4:4) did they go all out.
And what did the artificial intelligence fish off the high shelf? The half-time/final score selection “X/1”! It’s quite conceivable that Real will only pick up the pace in the second half, making it one of the better bets in this odds region!
Analysis: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
I had already made the Real Madrid win my odds suggestion for this game. However, the 1:2 against Betis Sevilla showed me once again that the Blancos sometimes fall far short of their potential.
In addition, there have been no white vests on the assembly line in recent weeks. Especially not in the Champions League, only against Girona (3:0), who had already been eliminated from the competition, did they manage the feat. We already get 1.77 individual odds for the goal of both teams.
This is fitting: The visitors have scored in all games so far, with the exception of the 0:1 at CD Leganes. Real have only failed to score at Espanyol Barcelona in 2025 (0:1).
Two teams that are sure to score among themselves. With “Double chance 1X” we can push the odds up to a whopping 2.15. The Whites have only lost twice at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu this season, against AC Milan in the league phase of the CL and 4-0 against Barcelona.
Atletico, meanwhile, have only won every other away game at league level and have not won at their city rivals for almost ten years. Their last treble came in 2016.
Odds Analysis
Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe alone have scored 14 of the Champions League goals. The corresponding single goal odds for the players are 2.20 and 2.75. In my opinion, the “double chance” variant from Winamax is a very hot odds for the first leg.
There you get 1.60 for the bet, which is won if at least one of the two top attackers scores. Since the 4-0 defeat against Barca in October, Mbappe and/or Vinicius have scored at home!
Across all competitions, we’ve only seen two games at the Bernabeu without a goal from the two stars. The bet is a clear recommendation, Winamax has a large selection of odds with attractive highs and a first-class new customer bonus.
Your first deposit is doubled in the form of free bets up to 100 euros. In addition, all bets are tax-free, so you can expect five percent more profit here, just like at Bet365.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds: Real without Bellingham
One of Real’s galactic attacking players will be missing on Tuesday and that is Jude Bellingham, who has to watch the home game from the stands due to yellow card suspension, Eder Militao, Jesus Vallejo, Daniel Carvajal and Dani Ceballos are injured.
Atletico, meanwhile, will be without Pablo Barrios, who is still sidelined due to his red card against Leverkusen. Captain Koke is also battling muscle complaints.
Not an ideal personnel situation in the center of the team, which qualified directly for the round of 16 in fifth place, only losing to Benfica and Lille and pushing ten balls over the line in the last five games.
In addition to the spectacle against Barca (4:4), Atletico celebrated an emphatic 3:0 win against Valencia and a 1:0 victory over Bilbao. Before that, we saw the 1-1 draw against Real and the same result a week later against Celta Vigo.
1:1 was the final result in the last three duels against Real Madrid. For this result tip we get a whopping 7.00 odds at Bet365. The official partner of the Premier League is also currently running an interesting promotion where you can win tickets for the Champions League.
You should also take a closer look at the sports betting bonus with the code: “VIPANGEBOT”. Incidentally, the last winner in this matchup is Atletico, a 4-2 victory in the Cup round of 16 last season, shortly after Real recorded a 5-3 win in the Super Cup semi-final.
We’ve seen nine consecutive meetings in which both teams have scored. But it’s not just at league and cup level that we’ve seen Atletico and Real play each other. The two Champions League finals in 2014 and 2016 are also unforgettable.
The Whites came out on top on both occasions, in 2016 on penalties and in 2014 the match was decided in extra time. In 2015, the Blancos also prevailed in the quarter-final direct duel and in 2017 in the semi-final.
Diego Simeone was already on the touchline back then. The Argentinian, who has been head coach since 2011, still has a big Champions League score to settle with Real.
As you can now see from my conclusion, however, I’m not convinced of a big revenge, at least not in the first leg.
My Real Madrid Atletico Madrid tip:
Real haven’t lost to Atletico at home since 2016, and the two superstars Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe are also sure-footed at the Santiago Bernabeu. In total, we’ve only seen two games without a goal from this pairing.
In addition to the double chance goalscorer bet, I can recommend the bet that both teams will score. Atletico already put four goals past Barca last week and have only failed to score once in 2025.
At the same time, even after the defeat against Betis, I rate Real as strong enough on the big Champions League stage to finish the first leg with at least a draw. The most likely outcome for me is a home win. Nevertheless, I’m hedging my bets as follows:
My Real Madrid Atletico Madrid prediction: Double chance 1X & Both teams score!
