Champions League, Tuesday, 04.03.2025 at 21:00
Niko Kovac has arrived in Dortmund! BVB are finally getting the results they wanted and now have to prove themselves in the last 16 of the Champions League. The latest impressions in our Champions League tips? They were very pleasing from a black and yellow perspective!
In my Dortmund Lille betting tip, I would therefore like to tell you why I am actually ruling out a defeat on Tuesday. However, since the French side were surprisingly strong in the group stage, I’m taking a more cautious approach with the “Double chance 1X”
In addition, Borussia have improved considerably in defense recently, which is why I’m adding a “Under 3.5 goals”. In the playoffs against Sporting Lisbon, they kept a clean sheet twice, and the recent performances of the defense in the Bundesliga also commanded my respect.
The visitors from France suffered a 4-1 defeat against PSG a few days ago, which is obviously not the best way to go into the Champions League with confidence.
In this respect, I will now explain to you in my analysis what led to Dortmund’s improved performance and why I believe that BVB will end the first leg with at least a draw on Tuesday.
The bookmaker forecast
After their confident performances in the playoffs, BVB can be happy to be considered the favorite by our tax-free betting providers. If you want to bet on a home win against Lille, odds of 1.70 are due.
The visitors would probably have traveled to Dortmund as underdogs even without the 1:4 against PSG. The odds come close to 5.00, even though the Great Danes also won at Atletico Madrid in the preliminary round.
Borussia would probably not really be satisfied with a draw, as the only two encounters against Lille so far have ended in a draw. If this happens again, you can secure odds of 3.90.
AI prediction Dortmund vs Lille: ChatGPT
What is ChatGPT’s prediction for the match between Dortmund and Lille? The AI is of course now a very nice way of looking for exciting tips, although it should of course also be treated with caution.
For this clash, it suggests a Dortmund win with more than 3.5 goals. In my opinion, that’s a little too optimistic as far as a shooting match is concerned. I’m assuming an efficient performance that doesn’t degenerate into a wild back-and-forth
Will Dortmund win by at least two goals? The victory with a 0:1 handicap could well be worth it, after all, the victories against St. Pauli, Union Berlin and Sporting were also clear.
Who will score first at Signal Iduna Park? Dortmund have scored nothing in four of their last five competitive matches, so I think the AI’s prediction that Borussia will score the first goal of the game is very realistic.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Lille
It seems to be a good fit between Borussia Dortmund and Niko Kovac after all! After a false start for the former Munich champions, he has now arrived at the Black & Yellows and is achieving the results that are expected of him.
In the Bundesliga, Dortmund first won 6:0 against Union Berlin and a little later 2:0 against St. Pauli. Admittedly, not the most difficult of opponents, but regardless of the opposition, BVB had previously only scored three times in total.
Those who know Kovac know that he loves defensive order. Under his direction, the team showed twice in the Champions League that it is quite capable of keeping things together.
After beating Sporting Lisbon 3-0 in the first leg, BVB managed a 0-0 draw in the second leg, meaning that progression was never in danger. The results in the top flight might have been even worse if Serhou Guirassy hadn’t been there.
Odds Analysis
Will Dortmund get off to a flying start? Difficult to say, I’m leaning towards a more defensive affair in which the zero should stand at first. I can therefore imagine that no goal will be scored before the break. The corresponding odds are 2.92 at Betano.
I would therefore go all out with a result bet and say: An unadorned 1:0 is not unlikely! Betano spits out odds of 7.30 for this, which also sounds attractive with the Betano bonus.
Serhou Guirassy is in absolute top form, scoring five times in the last two league games. Since he already has ten goals in the CL, he is my absolute favorite for a goal bet, which guarantees you odds of 2.10 at Betano.
Dortmund vs Lille odds: Will Guirassy or David decide the game?
Ten goals and three assists, the former Stuttgart player is completely on fire in international competition. Only in the 0-0 draw against Sporting, of course, was he not involved in a goal.
He has already scored a brace three times at home. In this respect, you can risk the bet “Guirassy scores at least twice” with a clear conscience, which has odds of 5.60 at Betano.
The fact that they have only lost one of their last 16 home games in the Champions League is naturally encouraging for the fans. In addition, Dortmund have won four of their last five knockout matches at home.
Incidentally, Borussia played Lille once before in 2002, when they were eliminated in the round of 16 of the UEFA Cup. 1:1 away, 0:0 at home, the away goals rule knocked the Black & Yellows out.
Over 20 years ago, of course, the players on the pitch were completely different, while Jens Lehmann kept goal, Marcio Amoroso, Stefan Reuter and Tomas Rosicky missed the goals.
Lille have already beaten Real and Atletico!
The visitors from Lille played a surprisingly strong group stage, securing a direct place in the knockout round by finishing seventh. And they did so despite losing 2-0 to Sporting on the very first matchday.
This was followed by unexpected victories against Real (1:0) and Atletico Madrid (3:1)! The Great Danes also performed well against Juventus Turin (1:1), Bologna (2:1) and Sturm Graz (3:2), while a narrow 2:1 defeat against Liverpool was of course forgivable.
In the final group game, the French fired out everything they had in the tank in a 6:1 win against Feyenoord. What is striking about the results, of course, is that Lille have only managed to play to nil once.
The last six games have seen goals on both sides, but Lille’s two defeats in the previous round came away from home. Is a German opponent a good omen for the round of 16?
The French top club have won two of eleven encounters against Bundesliga clubs, an extremely meagre result. For the first time since 2002, they will now face a German club in the knockout phase.
Of course, I have to talk briefly about Jonathan David, because he is the counterpart to Serhou Guirassy. He has scored six CL goals and has also scored twice less often. He scored a brace at Atletico, plus a goal at Anfield – the big stadiums suit him! Accordingly, the goal odds after Oddset registration are 3.25.
My Dortmund Lille tip:
How stable is Kovac-Borussia really already? The last few performances have been more than promising, with the Black & Yellows scoring zero on several occasions in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League.
Tuesday will show whether the nerves will actually hold in the last 16 of the top flight. Lille were beaten 1:4 by Paris St. Germain a few days ago, which will naturally put a damper on things.
I assume that BVB will take the decisive step forward. The new defensive strength has also impressed me, so I have decided on the following bet:
Dortmund will not lose by a maximum of three goals!
