Championship Playoffs semi-final, Friday, 17.05.2024
One win separates Southampton and West Brom from the final at Wembley after the goalless semi-final first leg of the Championship play-offs.
The visitors have just under 20 fewer expected goals on their tally compared to the Saints. The Baggies’ defense could tip the scales.
Fortunately for coach Carlos Corberán, WBA had the third-best defense in the Championship during the regular season (47 goals conceded).
I expect another close encounter in my Southampton West Brom betting tip, use my Oddset bonus for “Under 2.5 goals” and play with odds of 1.78.
Arguably the toughest league in the world offers a pairing of opposites in its promotion playoffs. The Saints have virtually invented the goal-scoring touch, boasting the third-best attacking line in the Championship this season (87 goals).
Happybet is offering odds of 1.75 for the home side to win, while West Brom have been given top odds of 4.90.
Although the first leg ended in a draw, this odds distribution is not surprising. Southampton collected 87 points over the course of the season. West Brom ranked directly behind the Saints in the standings, but only managed 75 points.
On the whole, I think the favorites role for Russell Martin and his team is fine, but wouldn’t rule out the Throttles bricking their way to the final
I base this assumption partly on the poor finish to the regular season. Southampton have lost three of their last four fixtures, scoring just four goals in total.
Two of the three final encounters even saw the Championship’s third-best offense fail to score from the vice.
If you’re already registered with Bet365, take a look at the goal bets. “Southampton Under 1.5 goals” is not out of the question in my opinion and is around 1.80 odds.
West Brom would be out of the question for a bet on under 1.5 goals, as the bookmakers have looked far too closely at the Throttles’ low scoring rate
If you compare the expected goals conceded by both promotion hopefuls, you will find Southampton (50.2 xGA) and West Brom (50.9 xGA) among the five best expected defenses in the Championship.
I have already mentioned the rather average attack of the visitors (61.3 xG). West Brom will not create many big chances with the home side’s high possession percentage (66.0 percent).
That’s not the style of Corberán’s team, who, compared to Southampton (1,583), only know their opponents’ penalty area from stories (957).
However, I don’t see West Brom as far behind as the bookmakers suggest with their odds distribution. Soccerment lists West Brom in the top 4 of the Championship in non-penalty xGA (3rd) and goals conceded from set pieces (4th).
Pressing is a foreign word for WBA and is rarely used. Only one league rival allowed more passes per defensive action than the Baggies (16.20).
In attack, set-pieces usually have to be used. West Brom produce the second most expected goals per 90 minutes from resting balls (0.38 xG).
If you put a handicap bet for the visitors in front of me, I would be prepared to take the risk with a sports betting bonus.
In the odds comparison of the best bookmakers, a “West Brom win (HC +1)” easily reaches the upper range of the 1.90 odds and is completely fine
The distribution of West Brom’s goals between home and away games is not really in order. Away from home, the Throttles hit the woodwork far less often (36 percent).
However, if Southampton have a weakness, it is the rest of the defense. 0.14 expected goals conceded from opposition counter-attacks (via Soccerment) is one of the five weakest values in the league comparison
West Brom’s underdog role is acceptable, but doesn’t quite match my expectations for this pairing. Southampton’s attacking play dropped off a bit towards the end of the season and they didn’t score in the semi-final first leg.
I’m expecting a game similar to the first leg, one that thrives on excitement and doesn’t promise a great goal experience for the spectators in attendance.
For my Southampton West Brom betting tip, I choose the bet Under 2.5 goals in the match
