Series A, Friday, 17.05.2024
Six points behind seventh place, but still a catch-up game on offer? No, AC Florence haven’t given up on international business yet! But La Viola know that the pressure is on, because there is still such an important final to play…
The team from Tuscany have an exciting few weeks ahead of them, which of course has to be part of my Fiorentina Napoli tips.
When the whistle blows on Friday against the defending champions, I say at least one point will stay with the home side
Italy and Germany in luck: Particularly strong performances in the 2023/24 season will pay off! These two nations will receive another starting place in the Champions League, which means that seventh and eighth place will suddenly become interesting.
Fiorentina are currently eighth, but could climb another place. Now, of course, the Violets have to ask themselves: Which way is the safest, with which strategy do we want to play our way into Europe?
This question arises for a specific reason: In a few days, Fiorentina will play the Conference League final against Olympiakos Piraeus. A big day, which naturally makes you wonder how seriously the league is still being taken.
The last few weeks have been turbulent, especially between the beginning of March and mid-April. However, La Viola have now fought their way out of this minor crisis, winning three of their last four games
However, I have to put things into perspective here. First, Salernitana and Sassuolo were beaten, one of these teams has already been relegated, the second is still below the line. The third win was a narrow 2:1 against Monza.
More interesting is the fact that they have conceded goals in 14 of their last 17 games. This will be Florence’s last home game of the season, so they will be all the more motivated to give their fans something to cheer about. At HappyBet, the BTS is therefore only scratching at a 1.60.
Two of the last 13 home games have been lost, and only against the top teams from Milan. All four defeats in their own stadium were very close, so they could easily have got away without losing at all.
They have already faced Napoli twice this season, winning 3-1 in the league and losing 3-0 in the Copa. So is the direct comparison even overall?
In the last few years there have actually been all the results, so I can’t really identify a trend. However, there is one fact that Fiorentina fans might not like: Only one of the past 15 home games against Napoli ended successfully!
This time, La Viola go into the encounter in a better position, two points ahead of their rivals with one game less to play. The designated defending champions from Naples never got going in 2023/24, and the negative statistics are not abating even in the final
13 wins from 36 rounds? What a haul compared to the championship season! Napoli are currently without a win in five games, winning just one of their last nine matches.
Only once this year have they managed to get away without conceding a goal. Whether it’s Frosinone, Udinese, Empoli, Roma, Juve or Cagliari: regardless of whether it’s a top team or a relegation candidate, anyone can score here
Whether Napoli play at home or away is almost irrelevant. Two of their last eleven games away from home have ended victoriously, which is nothing to write home about. Six times without a goal during this period, another point that speaks against the Sky Blues on Friday.
Victor Osimhen, the only player who is usually close to his normal form, has now suffered muscle fatigue, while Jesper Lindstrom is suffering from lumbago. The duo are therefore more than doubtful for the match in Florence
SSC Napoli are definitely a fearful opponent for Fiorentina – at least when they play at home. At the moment, however, the chances of a home win are probably better than they have been for a long time.
The visitors, who were superior champions a year ago, have been out of form for a long time and are no longer winning anything away from home. They are out of Europe, but Fiorentina can still finish seventh.
All in all, I expect a very close encounter in which both teams will make life difficult for each other. As I could find the better statistics for the home side, my betting tip is
Florence score against Napoli
