Women’s Olympic soccer tournament, semi-finals, Tuesday, 06.08.2024 at 21:00
The 2024 Women’s Olympic Football Tournament is like walking through a revolving door, at least for some teams! Because just a few days after a Brazil Spain tip, the next one is due.
This time, however, there is much more at stake, as the winner will keep their chance of gold. Even if the Brazilians have certainly improved enormously in the quarter-finals, I don’t think the final result will differ significantly from that of the preliminary round
Against all odds, Brazil, without world footballer Marta, actually managed to knock the favored French out of the competition in the quarter-finals (1:0).
The South Americans’ ability to nestle cleverly at the back can simply no longer be underestimated.
The “Seleção” tend to play good old Italian soccer, focusing on a stable defense and taking advantage of occasional offensive actions with ice-cold precision.
Of course, I have scrutinized the direct duel from the group stage as thoroughly as I usually do the Betano bonus conditions in order to be able to draw possible conclusions for a successful Brazil Spain betting tip
Meanwhile,
Spain got into considerable turmoil in the quarter-finals – as I anticipated in my Spain Colombia betting tip. If you followed my example, then you were certainly delighted with the great odds of 4.75.
The Iberians actually had to fight to the end against the venomous Colombians and even had to take the detour via the hated penalty shoot-out. But it’s also clear that there was a lot of bad luck involved with 32 of their own shots.
Furthermore, I don’t think the Brazilians will have the same success against SPA as the Colombians did before. In Ramírez and Santos-Herrera, the “cafeteras” have two excellent, fast players who are made for quick counter-attacks.
Brazil, on the other hand, lack the necessary explosiveness to embarrass the Spaniards in a similar way when they successfully win the ball.
Let’s take a look at the first-round duel together: Spain won 2-0, but also benefited from a red card against Marta after around 45 minutes. The goals were only conceded after that!
However, it is also clear that there were already clear indications that Brazil did not have the players needed to make a decisive offensive impact against this opponent.
Brazil fired just four shots in the entire match and launched only 24 dangerous attacks, while the Spaniards completed up to 132.
And yes, Marta is now eligible to play again. But the former world-class player is no longer of the right age to cross the middle of the pitch with the ball at her feet at speed
Interesting for a profit-oriented bet is whether the bookmakers have called out different odds for Spain compared to the preliminary round duel with Brazil – and indeed they have!
While the odds for an Iberian victory during the group stage were still around 2.05, the corresponding Spain odds this time are only 1.65 on average, making it more difficult to place a lucrative win bet on the Europeans.
On the other hand, the “premium” for a Brazilian success has been lowered from around 5.00 to 3.45, reflecting the betting operators’ increased confidence in a possible surprise
I would have advised you to place a corresponding win bet with odds of 2 for the Spaniards, but the bookies have now set the odds a little too low for the semi-final.
It is also to be expected that the reigning world champions will be more defensively minded after the two goals they conceded against Colombia and will no longer have the necessary self-confidence to boldly push forward with the ball at their feet.
As a result, there’s only one Brazil-Spain betting tip that I can seriously consider next Tuesday: Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 bets could be the key to success, especially as the payout has not changed compared to the clash in the preliminary round and remains unexpectedly high at 1.77.
Of course, you can also hope that the game goes into the half-time break with a 0-0 draw again. A corresponding scenario is part of the offer from licensed bookmaker Merkur Bets and promises odds of around 2.80 – not bad!
In comparison to the first showdown, the arena has shifted and this could lead to a greater fear of making mistakes, which could result in a slower game.
The Stade Vélodrome in Marseille can hold around 25,000 more spectators than the Matmut Atlantique, where second-tier FC Bordeaux play.
In addition, only 15,000 seats were filled in the group stage, whereas there will be significantly more in the semi-finals. This crowd could hold back the Spaniards, who already look a little insecure, somewhat in terms of their playing options
Conclusion: The match was supposed to be a carbon copy of the first clash in the group stage.
Brazil lack the right players to seriously embarrass the world champions, while on the other hand I expect the favorites to start the game in an unusually cautious manner.
The bottom line, however, is that the score should remain 0-0 for much longer this time compared to the clash a few days ago.
My Spain Brazil prediction therefore assumes that an under-2.5 bet will be crowned with success
