European Football Championship, Sunday, 14.07.2024 at 21:00
La Furia Roja against the Three Lions. What sounds like a semi-interesting battle scene from Greek mythology will be the crowning finale of EURO 2024 on Sunday.
In my Spain-England betting tip, I’m focusing on the contrasts between the two teams. After all, it’s clear at first glance that Spain and England have taken very different paths to reach the European Championship final.
One team marched through the group stage without conceding a goal, was not rattled by surprise team Georgia and then eliminated two top teams, the DFB team and France. The other team is – erh – England.
So it should come as no surprise to you that I favor the Iberians in my Spain-England prediction and feel extremely comfortable with my main tip “Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals” (1.60 @Betano).
Because although our European Championship bookmakers are hardly leaning out of the window in favor of Spain with their European Championship final odds – as I will show in detail – I consider an English success after 90 minutes to be simply unrealistic
The Iberians have been too solid in the tournament so far. Morata and Co. were also too mature in the semi-final against France.
I also think a goal festival is generally out of the question. Both Spain and England have excelled at the European Championships through controlled attacking rather than exuberant finishing.
In short, more than three goals simply won’t be possible. In fact, I expect – in line with the Spain-England odds – a pretty tough struggle.
The most likely scenario for me is that Spain will ultimately win the 2024 European Championship final 1:0 or 2:1
At this point, you could turn up your nose and ask: “So why doesn’t the gentleman bet on a Spanish win?” Quite simply, my suspicion of the Three Lions is simply too great.
In the knockout rounds so far, the motherland of soccer has always scored late goals and dragged itself into the European Championship final by its own boot, so to speak.
This special momentum must be respected in every Spain England betting tip. The fact that the Three Lions could possibly save themselves against La Roja with a late equalizer in extra time is something to keep in mind on Sunday.
A look at the odds for the classic 1×2 bets on the occasion of my European Championship final tip also proves this:
The Spain – England prediction of the bookmakers
One thing is clear: The Iberians are the favorites going into the European Championship final. However, the corresponding Spain-England odds for a win in regular time are 2.50, which is much higher than I would have expected beforehand.
For an England win, however, the European Championship betting providers are offering odds of around 3.50. Here I would have liked a value just under 4.00 to actually justify a risk tip.
I’m quite ambivalent about the draw odds. As mentioned, I would definitely consider a 1:1.
However, since the odds don’t even make it to 3.00 on average, I find it difficult to speak of a solid value bet here
KI prediction Spain vs England: This is what ChatGPT
is betting on.
In the last few days, I’ve never tired of criticizing ChatGPT for his – shall we say – creative predictions. In the wake of the Spain-England AI prediction, however, the old tinpot is keeping a low profile.
In fact, I can’t argue with the suggested result of 2:1 for Spain. In addition to the 1:0 for the Iberians, the 2:1 is on the tip of my tongue, so to speak.
The AI also recommends Alvaro Morata as the first goalscorer. Although the Atlético striker has only scored one goal in the tournament, he is of course always one of the hottest candidates for a goal on the Spanish side.
The fact that Morata obviously came through the unfortunate collision with the steward after the final whistle of the semi-final in good shape also speaks for the possibility of a goal from the captain.
So I’m going with you here too, especially as ChatGPT has marked the bet as a risk tip
Only the tip “Both teams score” makes me grind my teeth a little.
Spain beating England without conceding a goal or the game even going into extra time with a 0:0 is quite realistic in my opinion.
ChatGPT sees a low risk here with his bet, I see a medium risk
Spain – England odds: Where are the highest Spain/England odds?
If you turn to the boost bets of the various European Championship betting providers, you will notice that player bets for the final match are very popular. For example, top bookmaker Bet365 is offering boosted odds of 9.50 for the Spain-England bet “Lamine Yamal to score the first goal”.
If you prefer to side with the Three Lions, Harry Kane is a quick bet. If the Bayern star scores the first goal, the odds climb to 6.50.
Fittingly: With his goal in the semi-final against France, Kane is now the player who has scored the most goals in knockout matches at European Championships. Now that’s something …
NEObet also has another boost in store. The bet “Spain wins & over 2.5 goals” would cover a 2:1 for the Iberians and is undoubtedly not a bad idea at odds of 5.40.
Analysis: Spain vs England
There’s not really much debate: Spain is the best team at EURO 2024. Three wins in the preliminary round, knockout victories against Georgia and France and a progression after extra time against hosts Germany in the quarter-finals.
There really is hardly anything to complain about. The main reason for Spain’s success is undoubtedly their controlled approach to the game. In four of their six European Championship matches, the Iberians have scored no more than two goals.
They have never conceded more than one goal at most. In total, La Furia Roja have only conceded three goals after six European Championship matches.
If they also keep a clean sheet against England, the bookmakers are offering Spain England odds of 2.45 – a strong betting alternative in my view. However, anyone with their sights set on a Spanish defeat should close both eyes now.
The Iberians have only conceded one defeat since March 2023. They lost 1-0 to Colombia in a test match. 17 of the other 18 games in this period were won
England have not been similarly successful, especially in the recent past.
In fact, Gareth Southgate’s team have only won two games in regulation time in the entire course of the European Championship.
Alongside underdogs Serbia (1:0), they recently defeated the Dutch 2:1 in the last minute.
The other four England matches at EURO 2024 ended in a draw after 90 minutes. Is this really the way to become European champions? Apparently so
It should not be swept under the carpet that – despite their differences – Spain and England have one crucial element in common in the run-up to the European Championship final: defensive strength.
The Three Lions also have their qualities against the ball and have only conceded four goals in the entire tournament.
Just like the Iberians, they never conceded more than one goal in any match. If England are crowned the new European champions in the end, it will be their defensive performance that will be remembered above all.
If this streak continues in the final and England concede no more than one goal against Spain, you can still dust off odds of 1.45.
EM Final odds analysis
An open exchange of blows between Spain and England would undoubtedly be a big surprise. Accordingly, the European Championship bookmakers are clearly positioning themselves in favor of a low-scoring encounter.
In fact, the bet “Under 2.5 goals in the match” will only just make it over the 1.50 mark. If more than two goals are scored, the odds of 2.50 are extremely good.
Considering that ChatGPT recommends 2:1 for Spain and that I also have this final result on the cards, an “Over 2.5 goals” is definitely worth considering. The “Draw at half-time” is also interesting as a European Championship final tip – once again.
It is a realistic scenario that Spain and England will not let their cards be played in the first half and will try to maintain defensive stability.
Although the odds for a draw at the break are only 1.85, this is not a bad deal given the starting position.
If you want to take a little more risk, you could also consider a 0:0 at half-time in the Spain-England prediction. For this, the odds rise to a solid 2.25.
Spain vs England odds: For the 4th or 1st time?
What tends to get lost in the general criticism of the Three Lions’ style of play: England have never been more successful at the European Championships!
After reaching the final at Euro 2021, they are once again in the final of a EURO and have the chance to finally win their first ever European Championship title.
Spain’s trophy cabinet has not been empty for a long time. After winning the title in 1964, they caught up with record champions Germany in 2008 and 2012 and would now become the sole record winners of the European Championship if they beat England.
Debut success or 4th title? The final match of EURO 2024 will bring clarity!
Spain with problems against the Three Lions!
The head-to-head is a bitter disappointment right from the start. There has not been a recent duel that allows us to draw direct conclusions about the European Championship final.
The last time Spain and England met was in the 2018/19 Nations League.
In the group stage, the Spaniards won 2:1 in England. In the second leg, the British returned the favor with a 3:2 away win
Overall, the English have a narrow lead in the standings. After 27 matches, England have won 13, Spain have drawn four and Spain have won ten.
The two national teams have only met twice before at the European Championships.
In 1980 at the tournament in Italy, the English came out on top 2:1 in the group stage. At the 1996 European Championship on home soil, the Three Lions then won on penalties (4:2) in the quarter-finals.
La Furia Roja have yet to win a European Championship against England.
In general, one could argue that the English have not been the Iberians’ favorite opponents in the recent past. Spain have only won two of their last five matches against the islanders.
The “Double chance X2” (odds at 1.57) as a counter bet to my main betting tip would therefore not be completely out of the blue as a European Championship final tip
My Spain England prediction:
In view of the way the tournament has gone so far, I really have a lot of faith in the English. However, a 90-minute win against these Spaniards in the EURO 2024 final is not one of them.
In fact, I expect the British to finally reach their limits in the final and face a much better opponent.
I therefore expect the Iberians to dominate the game from the outset and to play with their usual passing ability in midfield, but without taking any risks.
A low-scoring game with the better end for the three-time European champions is therefore likely in my view.
Consequently, my Spain-England betting tip for the European Championship final is: The Iberians will not lose and there will be less than four goals in total