Bundesliga matchday 16, Saturday, 11.01.2025 at 15:30
Frankfurt played an insanely good first half of the season and climbed to third place in the table with 27 points. However, the Eagles gradually ran out of steam towards the end of last year.
The Kiezkickers had a little more energy for their last league game of the calendar year. St. Pauli defeated VfB Stuttgart (1:0) and spent the winter in 14th place in the table – their best position this season.
Alexander Blessin has learned from the first unsuccessful performances of this season and, after a troubled start, has increasingly sent his team onto the pitch with a greater defensive focus, making life more difficult for some opponents.
The Hessians should be on their guard at the Millerntor, otherwise they could face their fourth Bundesliga game without a win, perhaps even their third defeat in a row?
At least that’s not ruled out in my St. Pauli Frankfurt betting tip. I place my bet with Betano and play “Frankfurt under 1.5 goals” at odds of 1.78.
The betting providers’ forecast?
The SGE is not exactly what the general public would consider a strong away team. The bookmakers have a similar impression, with odds of up to 2.10 for a “Frankfurt win”.
This means that the third-placed team in the table is still the odds-on favorite with the bookmakers. St. Pauli are the third weakest home team and have picked up just five points from seven matches at the Millerntor.
Recently, their performances in their own stadium have steadily improved. The newly promoted side have picked up four of their five points at home in the last four home games.
Nevertheless, the odds for a three-pointer for the Kiezkicker reach just under 4.00 at the top – a level that makes my eyes wander towards a “double chance 1X”.
KI prediction St. Pauli vs Frankfurt: This is what ChatGPT
In the meantime, artificial intelligence is also being asked for possible betting tips and I have also asked for various AI predictions. According to ChatGPT, a low risk would be a bet on “Both teams to score”, which you can find at odds of 1.63 at Interwetten. The odds would be too low for me, but such a bet would hardly be reprehensible after three SGE Bundesliga games with goals on both sides.
A slightly more crisp and contrary to my own expectations, a somewhat more profitable variant of the AI turns out. ChatGPT suggests “Win Frankfurt & Over 2.5 goals” for odds of 2.95. This offer is available to you after registering with Oddset.
The St. Pauli Frankfurt AI tip with the highest risk is again not a bad suggestion. Omar Marmoush already has 13 goals this season (2nd) and a history with the Kiezkickers. “Omar Marmoush scores the 1st goal” would be a typical soccer story, which Winamax links with odds of 5.30.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Frankfurt
Frankfurt have scored the third most goals in the German top flight (35) and have the second-best goalscorer in the squad in Omar Marmoush (13 goals). So why a St. Pauli Frankfurt bet on a maximum of one SGE goal?
First of all, SGE have not won any of their five final competitive matches in the 2024 calendar year. In addition, the Hessians scored “Under 1.5 goals” in each of their two previous Bundesliga meetings.
In addition, the attacking engine has not really wanted to start in several away Bundesliga matches recently. Frankfurt have scored “under 1.5 goals” in three of their last five Bundesliga appearances.
It’s actually not quite as far-fetched as my St. Pauli Frankfurt tip may have sounded to some at the beginning.
In addition, the Kiezkicker’s defense has made a strong impression on the Bundesliga matchdays so far.
Apart from Bayern (13 goals conceded), no other team in the German soccer league has conceded fewer goals than St. Pauli (19).
At home, Blessin’s charges conceded two goals against Werder Bremen (0:2) in their last home game of 2024. Before that, however, Pauli prevented more than one goal from being conceded in three consecutive Bundesliga home matches.
Rating Analysis
Win odds of over 2.00 for the third-placed team in the Bundesliga against a promoted team threatened by relegation sound a little high at first glance. In my opinion, however, the bookmakers are absolutely right.
SGE have only won four out of eight visits so far and have conceded the fourth most expected goals away from home (16.30 xGA).
On the other hand, no Bundesliga team has conceded fewer expected goals at home than the Kiezkickers (6.92 xG). It remains to be seen whether the new winter signings have loosened the hosts’ knots and improved their attacking play.
With the crowd behind them and the positive feeling from the 1:0 win against Stuttgart, I could very well imagine a sports betting bonus of 1.75 for “Double chance 1X”.
St. Pauli vs Frankfurt odds: The own sixteen is sealed
The promoted team from the north of Germany has not yet picked up that many points in its own stadium. Five points from seven home games are still too few, but could soon become more.
Over the winter, the team added to its attacking options. Defensively, on the other hand, things are pretty good even without new signings.
Alexander Blessin coaches the second-best defense (19 goals conceded), which is hard to crack at the Millerntor. St. Pauli only conceded two goals from play in their own stadium. Two! That’s the fewest in the league.
What’s more, the newly promoted side have conceded less than 1.5 goals in three of their four previous Bundesliga home games and are well equipped to deal with the SGE’s onslaught.
However, you are well prepared with the Betano new customer bonus. Click on the graphic, sign up and enjoy a €20 free bet.
The stop sign for Frankfurt
The expected goals conceded in their own stadium are 8.06 xGA for St. Pauli – the fourth best value in the entire German Oberhaus.
In addition to the well-coordinated processes between the various defensive lines, Nikola Vasilj is waiting in the box. The goalkeeper has been one of the best keepers in the Bundesliga this season.
Vasilj has already gone five Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal and has saved 71.6 per cent of the balls that have come his way (4th).
Of all the goalkeepers in the Bundesliga, only Oliver Baumann (4.8) and Kamil Grabara (4.2) have stopped more goals than the St. Pauli goalkeeper (3.9).
The hosts have only allowed their opponents 179 shots so far (5th) and have generally been extremely skillful around their own penalty area.
Just as important is Omar Marmoush’s first small dry spell, which was indicated at the end of the 2024 calendar year.
The Bundesliga’s top scorer this season (20) went scoreless for the first time this season during SGE’s three previous Bundesliga pairings.
If the second-highest scorer in the German top flight (13 goals) has not yet regained his form, SGE could face a fourth winless Bundesliga game in a row.
Like Alexander Blessin, however, Dino Toppmöller can rely on his backline. Kevin Trapp successfully fended off 74.5 percent of the shots in his box (2nd).
That, of course, contributed to the fact that the opposition’s shot conversion rate against SGE has been relatively poor so far (9.87 per cent).
My St. Pauli Frankfurt tip:
St. Pauli have only conceded three goals at home and have successfully defended their own goal with all possible means.
Frankfurt are facing a big challenge, which is rather inconvenient for a team in poor form (unbelievable that I’m writing this about the third-placed team in the table) like SGE.
I fancy St. Pauli to do well in this pairing, especially as the Kiezkickers have won two of their previous four Bundesliga games.
My St. Pauli Frankfurt tip: Frankfurt under 1.5 goals!
