St. Pauli – Werder Bremen betting tip, AI prediction & odds 14.12.2024

Bundesliga Matchday 14, Saturday, 14.12.2024 at 18:30

On Saturday, the top match will be a duel between the volatile northern teams of St. Pauli and Werder Bremen. So there should be plenty of excitement at Hamburg’s Millerntor!

My St. Pauli Werder Bremen betting tip, for which I recommend the Swedish provider LeoVegas (which also offers a sports betting advent calendar), advises a combination of a Bremen points win and goals on both sides.

After 13 matchdays, the promoted FC St. Pauli is, as expected, in the middle of the relegation battle and can currently point to 15th place and eleven points (3S, 2U, 8N).

Their lead over the first direct relegation spot is already a not-uncomfortable six points.

The truth is, however, that with 11 points from 13 games, FCSP is currently playing its second weakest Bundesliga season.

The betting providers’ forecast?

The online sports betting providers favor the visitors from Bremen by a wafer-thin margin in the classic three-way betting with odds of 2.55 to 2.65. A thoroughly unusual starting position.

However, a draw is also trading at lucrative odds of around 3.40.

KI prediction St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen: This is what ChatGPT

How does ChatGPT actually react to the question of which northern team will cut the better figure in Saturday’s top match? The well-known AI model is of course equipped with the latest statistics and has presented betting fans with three betting suggestions.

For the more daring among you, the AI recommends giving Werder a virtual handicap of -1. I would be cautious with this recommendation, as Bremen have only won one of their five matches by more than one goal.

For medium risk, the AI recommends expecting the first goal to come from Bremen. ChatGPT knows that Bremen have always taken the lead in the last three games in which they have scored. My feeling: a real insider tip!

ChatGPT considers the event “both teams score” to be the safest option, which I also consider to be less risky and therefore include in my St. Pauli Werder Bremen betting tip.

Analysis: St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen

Only in the 2001/02 relegation season did the Kiezkickers have fewer points on their account at the time of comparison than they currently do (seven, 18th place at the end of the season).

However, the spirited and self-sacrificing fight on the last matchday in the 1:2 draw at champions Leverkusen is proof of morale and that games against Pauli are no walk in the park for any team.

Meanwhile, the following fact does not exactly give hope to Pauli fans: FCSP and Werder will meet for the 17th time in the Bundesliga on Saturday.

After St. Pauli won the first duel in 1977, the Kiezkickers have remained winless in 15 league duels since then (4U, 11N).

Werder have won all of their last seven league duels – eight BL wins in a row against an opponent would be a new club record for Werder in the top flight (they also won seven in a row against Freiburg from 2004 to 2011).

The fact that Morgan Guilavogui will be missing through yellow card suspension does not exactly speak in the hosts’ favor either; the attacker has scored in each of the last two Bundesliga games, recording his first two goals in the German top flight.

This season, Guilavogui has the most shots (23) and penalty area actions (47) for FCSP.

Rating Analysis

The clash between the relegation-threatened Hamburgers and the in-form Bremen, who have lost only one of their last four games (2S, 1U), offers some promising betting opportunities, which I would like to point out below.

For example, I consider a Bremen opening goal, which ChatGPT also recommends, to be an attractive betting offer with odds of around 1.95.

I also consider bets on goals from the in-form Bremen player Jens Stage (odds around 4.00) or the brilliant Paulian Johannes Eggestein (3.00) against Kiel to be promising.

St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen odds: Can Eggestein come up trumps against his former club?

Guilavogui’s lack of goalscoring threat could also be compensated for by Johannes Eggestein, who was directly involved in all three of his team’s goals (1 goal, 2 assists) in their last Bundesliga home game against Holstein Kiel.

Eggestein played his first 46 Bundesliga games from 2017 to 2020 for Werder Bremen (5 goals) and will now face his former club for the first time.

Meanwhile, the weakness of the two Hanseatic teams at the top of the table speaks for a draw.

St. Pauli and Werder Bremen meet for the first time in the Bundesliga top match on Saturday evening. The Kiezkickers have lost all three of these games, all of them at the Millerntor, most recently 3-0 against Mainz 05 on matchday six.

Opponents Bremen have also won just one of their last 10 top-flight matches and have lost eight of those 10 games (1U).

Bremen are currently strong away from home but weak against promoted teams

With 19 points (5S, 4U, 4N), the Green-Whites are currently in mid-table in the German league (10th place), although they may even have cautious hopes of reaching the European Cup with just five points behind fourth place.

However, Werder should overcome their acute weakness against promoted teams as quickly as possible.

SV have lost all of their last four Bundesliga games away to promoted teams – a club record (last set between 1996 and 1997) and currently the longest such streak in the league. The last points came in a 2-0 win at Bielefeld in mid-March 2021.

However, this is offset by their current strength on the road, which is likely to outweigh the aforementioned statistical bon mot.

Werder have won four of their last six away games in this Bundesliga season (2N), which is as many victories as in the previous 21 away games in the top flight combined.

After the first seven away games of a Bundesliga season, the last time SV Werder Bremen had as many points (15) as they currently have (13) was in 2009/10, when Mesut Özil and Per Mertesacker were playing.

But Bremen are not only strong away from home at the moment, they are also strong on the ball. SVWB have already scored seven headers in this Bundesliga season – which is tied for the league lead with FSV Mainz 05.

opponents St. Pauli, on the other hand, have only scored once with a header, and only Bochum have not scored at all.

Werder Bremen midfielder Jens Stage has also scored six goals in his last five Bundesliga games, which is as many goals as he has scored in all of his previous 66 appearances in the top flight and three times as many as opponents St. Pauli’s most successful player this season (none more than 2).

Werder Bremen can also rely on international Marvin Ducksch, who recently provided his sixth assist of the Bundesliga season in the 1-0 win over Bochum. Only high-flyers Omar Marmoush and Vincenzo Grifo (7 each) have scored more in the top flight in 2024/25.

Ducksch hasn’t managed a single assist against St. Pauli in seven competitive matches – but he has scored four goals himself against the Hamburgers (all in the 2nd division).

My St. Pauli Werder Bremen tip:

In order to combine lucrative odds and decent risk, I’m going for a match combination that’s worth registering for at LeoVegas.

My recommendation assumes goals on both sides and accentuates Bremen’s current away strength, which is why I expect the Green-Whites to win at least one point.

I think a home win for Pauli is less likely, as the Kiezclub have only managed one home win in six games so far.

Furthermore, Hamburg have only won 1 of their last 11 home games against Werder in all competitions (3U, 7N).

In the LeoVegas app, these events predicted by me are combined into a combo tip with highly lucrative 2.25 odds.

My St. Pauli Werder Bremen betting tip is therefore: DC X2 & both teams score!

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