Serie A, Saturday, 18.05.2024
In Serie A, Stefano Pioli’s farewell tour as head coach of the “Rossoneri” continues. The program includes a stopover at the Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
In my Turin FC AC Milan betting tip, I analyze the situation on the betting markets below to help me make my own betting decision.
The fact that the visitors are the slight favorites increases my interest in placing a lucrative away win bet here
Milan’s last few games have been anything but boring! An epic 3:3 draw against Genoa was followed by an equally entertaining 5:1 win over Cagliari.
Stefano Pioli, meanwhile, couldn’t care less, as it’s an open secret that the board are planning to appoint a new coach next season. The outcome of the match against FC Torino will not change that much.
It’s a shame really, because the runners-up title is certainly not the product of a nightmarish season.
However, given the enormous sums that the AC bosses invested in upgrading the squad last summer, they certainly didn’t want to end the 2023/24 season without a title
Turin FC will not be giving away the game on Saturday. After all, the club is still in the running for a UECL starting place thanks to the excellent performance of Italian teams on the international stage.
And against Verona last week, they were finally able to pick up three points in a row – something the team had previously been consistently denied at every opportunity since the beginning of April (3 draws, 1 defeat).
At the same time, it was also the only time in this period that the Turin side scored any goals in a match. In fact, their attacking contract is one of the areas that will require the most attention during the summer break.
Watch out: Of all the clubs in the league’s current top 10, the Toro have currently scored another 14 goals fewer than the second-harmiest Serie A offense in this segment of the table (Lazio, 47)
Of course, it’s hard to “shoot” your way to Europe like that
So it’s no surprise when I tell you that the Crazybuzzer app – as well as those of all the other bookmakers we consider – offers significantly lower odds of 1.50 on average for a match with less than 2.5 goals than for the opposite case.
But here I feel a tinge of skepticism. Because even if only one goal was scored in Turin’s last five Serie A home games – which is actually inconceivable – spectators could still get a bit more for their money.
After all, since the start of 2024, Milan have been notable for the most three-goal performances in Europe’s top five leagues after Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal.
In fact, 9 of the 18 Serie A games played since the turn of the year have ended with at least three goals for the “Rossoneri.”
The fact that the bookmakers have also announced almost even odds for Torino FC AC Milan as favorites only increases my interest in a win bet on the visitors!
If the Milanese had been favored, I might have refrained from doing so, but the 2.70 being traded in this context fuels my interest.
Especially as Milan have already won six of their last eight Serie A games against their upcoming opponents, which represents a significant improvement in performance.
That’s exactly the same number of wins the Red & Blacks have had in their previous 17 Serie A encounters against the Toro combined!
In addition, Torino lack a really good striker to really put Milan’s usually solid defense under pressure.
Since the departure of Andrea Belotti, the “Granata” have had the problem of providing the necessary attacking power.
Duvan Zapata, a player I admire from his time at Bergamo, is the only reasonably reliable attacker to have scored more than 6 Serie A goals in a Turin shirt.
For comparison: Milan have 4 players under contract who have cracked this mark in 2023/24
A bet of the half-time/final score 2/2 type is primarily suitable for betting fans with an above-average willingness to take risks and who are always chasing high odds.
Almost every user-friendly sports betting app promises odds of currently around 4.50 for this type of betting, which you should not turn your back on.
Turin FC are decidedly harmless in the first half and if the Rossoneri seize the opportunity, a 1-0 half-time lead could possibly last until the end.
In any case, the Toro have surprisingly failed to score before the half-time whistle in any of their last 8 Serie A home games.
And don’t forget the first-round duel! Not only did Milan win 4-1 on that occasion, but the Rossoneri hammered three of those goals into the Turin side’s net in the first half alone
Conclusion: Initially, I didn’t want to place an away win bet.
But Milan’s victory over Cagliari the previous week was impressive and the upcoming opponent comes just in time to take a 1-0 lead before the break with a bit of luck.
Meanwhile, the sports betting providers provide the necessary betting incentives with attractive AC win odds and over-2.5-goal odds, both of which convinced me.
My betting tip for the match between Torino FC and AC Milan is therefore: Half-time/final score 2/2 – although a simple away win would also be an excellent option.
