Series A, Monday, 06.05.2024
The craziest stories are usually written by soccer itself! Fabio Cannavaro, the new coach of Udinese, was born just a stone’s throw away from the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Tonight, however, he is sitting on the bench of the “Friulani”, where, according to my Udinese Napoli tip, he will witness a heated game with goals on both sides
For Napoli, this is the very last chance to get anywhere near the European Cup places. For their upcoming opponents, on the other hand, it’s red alert after the events of the past weekend!
Sassuolo beat Inter Milan for the second time this season and have thus fully re-established contact with the relegation places currently occupied by the Friulani.
In fact, it seems that almost every club in the second half of the table could still be relegated, meaning that nobody can rest assured – least of all Udine! Could this precarious situation provide additional motivation for the home side?
One look at the Udinese Napoli odds is enough to understand that the sports betting providers believe in the possibility of the home side scoring.
Although the Neapolitans are favored with odds of around 2.00 to win, the 3.60 that are being traded for both a draw and a home win have been deliberately placed in the “realm of possibility”.
This idea is not entirely absurd in view of the fact that Udinese were able to snatch a 1-1 draw from a strong team like Bologna, who are on course for the Champions League, just the previous week.
However, Udine’s record against their upcoming opponents is devastating – so much so that I no longer want to mark a home win on my betting slip given the odds and data.
Keep in mind: Udine have only managed to wring a measly two points from the last 15 Serie A encounters between the two rivals (2 draws, 13 defeats).
To make matters worse, they also conceded an absolutely horrendous number of goals – an average of 2.7 per appearance.
And the first-round duel? That also clearly went to the “Partenopei” (4:1).
However, I wouldn’t want to put my money on Napoli setting the tone as they did on matchday 6.
SSC will be without the suspended Amir Rrhamani tonight in a defense that is far too error-prone at the moment anyway.
Watch out: Napoli have trailed at the break in their last four Serie A away matches and have even gone behind after just 10 minutes in the last two of those games
Furthermore, providers such as Sunmaker have not set the SSC win odds for tonight at a low level for good reason.
The bookmaker therefore also seems to employ capable data analysts! After all, Napoli have “only” won four of their eight games this season against clubs that were languishing in a place below the bottom of the table (2 draws, 2 defeats).
That’s a far from impressive statistic for a club that dominated Serie A at will in the previous season
However, I don’t want to make Udine look any stronger than it actually is at this point.
They are also missing two important players, Payero and Perez, due to yellow cards.
In addition, they have been winless for six matchdays (2 draws, 4 defeats), although they are currently more in need of points than ever.
The bottom line is that a classic 1X2 bet is far too tricky for me and also not particularly high odds – regardless of which way we look
Instead, I will focus on a goal bet. Strictly speaking, my hopes are pinned on a simple both-teams-meet bet, which has a perceived probability of 90%.
After all, players from both sides have been on the scoresheet in 9 of the last 10 games in which they have scored together
Conclusion: Both sides have a very clear goal in mind, but neither Udinese nor Napoli can really convince me.
However, Udine must at least be praised after the 1-1 draw against Bologna, even if they haven’t been victorious in a direct comparison with the Neapolitans since 2016.
In any case, the suspensions on both sides will make for a lively game tonight, in which both opponents will have numerous opportunities to score.
My Udinese Napoli tip: Both teams to score
