Uruguay – Cape Verde Tip Football World Cup, Group H, Matchday 2 on Monday, 22.06.2026 at 00:00
What a heroic performance it was by the African island state against the team that is at the top of the bookmakers’ list of World Cup title favorites! Nobody really expected that!
Meanwhile, my Uruguay Cape Verde tip is based on the solid defensive work of the “Blue Sharks”. Because with the selection Under 2.5 goals at odds of around 1.65, I don’t rule out that they will manage to seal off their own box as far as possible this time as well.
After all, Cape Verde has already proven in the 0-0 draw against the European champions that their defence is a real bulwark. Uruguay, on the other hand, had a hard time converting chances in the 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia!
A Uruguay Cape Verde forecast celebrates its debut in the betting office, so to speak. Unsurprisingly, Monday will be the first time that the two nations will meet in a football match.
However, I am not overly optimistic that the South Americans will live up to their role as favourites. Because Celeste, who has now been winless in five international matches, could be morally cracked in this trend-setting duel of Group G.
Uruguay – Cape Verde: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our recent Uruguay Cape Verde AI forecast has also analyzed the upcoming clash and provides a clear tendency. This is because artificial intelligence sees South Americans winning 62.6%, while Cape Verde only gets 14.9% in this context.
It also gets interesting in terms of “expected goals”. The forecast model calculates 1.71 xG goals for Uruguay and only 0.69 for Cape Verde. The total of 2.4 goals thus fits my main bet above.
Incidentally, the Uruguay Cape Verde odds on the 1X2 market have hardly moved despite the surprising results at the start. In the eyes of the World Cup bookmakers, the South Americans remain the overwhelming favorite of this encounter!
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Uruguay |
Draw |
Victory Cape Verde |
| 62.6% |
22.5% |
14.9% |
The market for “both teams to score” is also highly quoted, suggesting that bookmakers are not expecting goals on both sides. This reinforces the assumption that Cape Verde in particular could remain offensively harmless.
However, caution is advised with the Asian Handicap. Uruguay must win here with at least a two-goal difference. Since Spain already struggled on the defensive, this bet is associated with a considerable risk and I advise against it.
In terms of goalscorer bets, the usual suspects are once again Darwin Nunez and Federico Vinas. The AI tool even sees a total of ten Uruguayan players with a higher probability of scoring than Cape Verde’s best attacker!
Uruguay – Cape Verde Prediction & Betting
In this section, I present you with one or the other additional Uruguay Cape Verde tip for the second group match of both teams, which you can try out together with a World Cup bonus offer.
I’ll tell you how I imagine this game: It goes into the dressing room with a 0-0, the South Americans then get to hear a fierce speech from coach Marcelo Bielsa and then show more commitment in the second half.
Translated into useful football bets, I would target different scenarios in this group game: On the one hand, 1st half: Under 0.5 goals at 2.65, whereby the risk-averse among you at bet365 can always switch to the Asian HC bet 1st half: Under 1.0 goals at 1.79.
In addition, I would also give Uruguay Cape Verde’s highest-scoring half: 2nd half odds of about 2.18 a chance.
What you need to consider when betting on Uruguay vs. Cape Verde
- Uruguay had 27 shots against Saudi Arabia, 22 of them in the second half.
- The 65-place difference in the FIFA ranking between Cape Verde and Spain was the largest in a draw.
- Cape Verde’s odds on the knockout round improved from 32.7% to 50% probability after the draw.
- Goalkeeper Vozinha (40) kept a clean sheet on his debut with seven saves against Spain.
As long as the legs are fresh, the euphoric underdog will consistently close every gap, but Bielsa’s men will have more shots in the final phase.
I expect a maximum of two goalscorers in this game, which is why I would only recommend a Cape Verde Uruguay tip for a player bet – namely 1st goal: Darwin Nunez at 4.60.
Darwin Nunez is and remains a world-class player, even if he didn’t shine against Saudi Arabia. In fact, I can well imagine him pushing a duster over the line against Cape Verde in the final minutes in a less spectacular way!
But even if I assume a 2-0 win for the Uruguayans, after the heroic performance of the “Blue Sharks” against Spain, I can absolutely understand if you are in the mood for World Cup free bets that you can bet on a similar surprise.
The best odds for Uruguay vs. Cape Verde
The overall Uruguay Cape Verde betting odds reflect a clear set of expectations. With odds of around 1.50, Uruguay is said to have an implied probability of winning over 66%, making them the clear favourite in this match.
A draw is higher odds, but after Cape Verde’s heroic deed against Spain, it cannot be ruled out by any means. Because if Uruguay’s offense has loading inhibitions again, a share of points could well be within the realm of possibility.
A victory for Cape Verde would be the next big sensation of the tournament. The probability is only about 14%, but who would have thought they could pick up a point against Spain before the tournament started? As is well known, anything is possible in football.
Ultimately, it all depends on whether Uruguay’s much-vaunted attack can find a way through the defensive bulwark. While the odds are firmly based on this, the performance in the first game raises at least slight doubts about this assumption.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Tactics & Match Analysis:
In Group H, everything is still open after the two draws at the start. A win in this game would be a huge step towards the knockout phase for both teams and would significantly reduce the pressure before the last group game.
We will see a clear contrast of styles on Monday. Marcelo Bielsa’s side will be pressing high and in possession, while Cape Verde will rely on the disciplined and deep defensive formation that was so successful against Spain.
At Uruguay, striker Darwin Nunez in particular has to find his coolness in front of goal again. “La Celeste” created many chances, but lacked the final consistency in the finish, which can take revenge against a deep block.
The folk hero of Cape Verde is undoubtedly the 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha. With seven saves, he unnerved the Spanish attackers and secured his team’s historic World Cup point.
For Uruguay, it will in all likelihood be a game of patience somewhere, in which they will have to keep a cool head.
In the end, however, according to my Uruguay Cape Verde forecast, I stick to a narrow nil victory for the South Americans. The probability that the underdog will survive another 90 minutes against a top team without conceding a goal is simply too low!
Uruguay Form Curve
Despite being the clear favourites, Uruguay did not get beyond a frustrating 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia in the opening game. They dominated the game, but could not convert their superiority into a victory and disappointed.
Marcelo Bielsa’s defence is also severely weakened. With Ronald Araújo and captain José María Giménez, two absolute pillars in the defence are missing due to injury, which could affect defensive stability.
The Celeste travelled to North America with high hopes, but have been without a win since October 2025 and have been waiting for a sense of achievement in five games. The duel against Cape Verde has therefore already become an absolute must-win.
However, their style of play remains unchanged: Bielsa demands tireless pressing, quick ball conquests and vertical attacks. It will be crucial to convert this intensity into goals and crack the Africans’ defensive bar.
“La Celeste” must therefore first and foremost rediscover their efficiency in front of goal in order to avoid another disappointing preliminary round exit. All eyes will be on star striker Darwin Nunez, who could make the difference according to my Uruguay Cape Verde prediction.
Cape Verde Shape Curve
Cape Verde defies all expectations at this tournament. As the third-smallest nation ever to qualify for a finals, they continue to cause a sensation. Already in the qualification they surprisingly left Cameroon behind.
The extraordinary 0-0 draw against European champions Spain in the opening game was their first point in their first participation. So they go into the duel against Uruguay with huge confidence and firmly believe in their chance in Group H.
Incidentally, the team relies on enormous defensive discipline. Their structured, deep block and the experienced defensive chief Roberto “Pico” Lopes are the key to bringing even playfully superior offensive lines to despair.
Against Spain, they allowed the opponent 74% possession and were clearly dominated with 27:6 shots. Nevertheless, they secured the point and committed only one foul, which underlines their tactical masterstroke.
Offensively, they are limited, but efficient. In ten qualifying matches, they scored only 16 goals. Striker Dailon Livramento is their most dangerous weapon on the counterattack and can make a lot out of a few chances.
This is arguably the most important match in Cape Verde’s football history. A positive result would gild the coup against Spain and put them in an excellent starting position to progress.
