France – Iraq Tip Football World Cup, Group I, Matchday 2 on Monday, 22.06.2026 at 23:00
If Didier Deschamps can drum into his men to present themselves exclusively as they did in the second half of their opening game, then my France Iraq tip will almost become a no-brainer.
With the combination bet to win France with HC -2 at odds of about 1.82, I hope that the Équipe Tricolore will ignite the same offensive ferno as against Senegal – only this time from the start!
If my prediction comes true, I would push it up a few places instead of the bookmakers in terms of World Cup 2026 odds. Because the team has the potential to become world champions this summer!
Interestingly, a France Iraq tip is celebrating its premiere in the betting shop, as it will be the first meeting between the two nations on Monday!
France – Iraq: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool sees the distribution of chances as extremely one-sided. The probability of France winning is estimated at 92.2%. A draw is only 6.3%, while an Iraqi victory is almost impossible at 1.5%.
The predicted goal numbers reflect this dominance. With 3.22 expected goals for France and only 0.28 for Iraq, everything points to a sweeping victory. The xG total of 3.5 goals in the match underlines the offensive expectation of our data model.
The Asian Handicap Line was therefore set at -2.75 for France. This means that Les Bleus must win by at least three goals for a bet on them to be successful.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory France |
Draw |
Victory Iraq |
| 92.2% |
6.3% |
1.5% |
The goal line for the Asian over/under is 3.5 goals. For a bet on “Over” to win, at least four goals must be scored in the game. If, on the other hand, three or fewer goals are scored, everyone who has bet on the “under” wins.
Meanwhile, Kylian Mbappé is the clear favourite on the market for goalscorers. The probability of him scoring at any point in the game is an impressive 67%. That’s not a big surprise after his brace at the start!
But his teammates are also dangerous. For Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise, the implied probability of a goal is estimated to be 49%. This impressively underlines the enormous offensive quality and depth within the French squad.
France – Iraq Prediction & Betting
In this section, I present you with some other betting approaches that caught my eye as part of my Iraq France prediction and that you can put to the test at any time with a World Cup free bet.
A relatively safe pick at this point would be France/France at small but fine odds of about 1.40. Because it cannot be assumed that the Iraqis can even begin to dispute their points.
For those of you who prefer somewhat bolder bets, I would therefore even recommend France to score in both halves at 1.52, because I can’t really imagine that this game will be fundamentally different from the opening game of the Iraqis.
This is precisely why the bolder variant France wins both halves at a slightly higher 1.78 would also be worth considering – especially if the Deschamps team does not present us with only one strong half of the game again.
What you need to consider when betting on France vs. Iraq
- France improved enormously in the second half against Senegal.
- Iraq had nine shots on goal against Norway in the first half.
- France won only 3 of 21 games with three or more goals.
- Ousmane Dembélé is still waiting for his first goal after 12 World Cup games.
In fact, I believe that Les Bleus will provide continuous fire this time. If the experienced coach motivates his team a little better and prevents avoidable tension drops, then he could soon celebrate a resounding victory against the whipping boy of Group I.
This would bring us to one or the other France Iraq tip, which I also have in my quiver and which, with a bit of luck, could prompt the bookmakers to pay out lavish winnings.
Kylian Mbappé scores in both halves At odds of around 6.00, for example, I would give a chance if the Frenchman only comes close to delivering what he showed us in the second half of the game against Senegal.
The best odds for France vs. Iraq
A look at the common France Iraq betting odds on the 1X2 market reveals the clear distribution of roles. The odds for a French victory are only 1.08 on average, which corresponds to an implied probability of around 93%. That’s awesome!
The odds for a draw or even a victory for Iraq are correspondingly high and reflect the low probability of occurrence. These results would be a sensation and are classified by the bookmakers as simply hopeless.
This one-sided picture on the betting markets fits perfectly with the current form and the difference in quality that exists between the two teams. After all, France is one of the 2026 World Cup favorites, while Iraq is considered one of the biggest outsiders.
In view of the extremely low win rate for FRA, it is therefore worthwhile to look for alternatives for your own France Iraq tip. Handicap bets, goalscorer bets or bets on the number of goals, for example, offer much more attractive odds!
France vs. Iraq Tactics & Match Analysis:
Both nations go into this second group game with completely different feelings. While France are brimming with confidence after an impressive opening win, Iraq have to digest a bitter 4-1 defeat against Norway.
In view of the enormous difference in quality and the fragile Iraqi defence, all experts expect an easy victory for France.
The bookmakers are speculating on a win chance of over 90% for coach Didier Deschamps’ team, which is pretty close to my own France Iraq prediction.
A decisive factor is the incredible depth in the French squad. Even from the bench, world-class players can be brought in who can decide a game. This is a huge advantage over other nations, especially in the climate of North America.
A perfect example of this was Bradley Barcola. He came on as a substitute against Senegal and became the youngest Frenchman to score on his World Cup debut since Thierry Henry in 1998. This shows you the enormous quality that Deschamps can bring at any time!
Even if the underdog manages to keep the French starting eleven in check in the early stages, it will be extremely difficult. The substitution of fresh top players could simply become too much for the Iraqi team in the course of the game.
France form curve
France’s performance against Senegal was a demonstration of their strength, especially after the break. After a rather sluggish first half, in which little came together, the team showed its true, frightening face after the change of ends.
The statistics impressively prove this change. In the first half, there was only one shot on goal that was blocked.
In the second half, on the other hand, they fired ten times on goal, created 1.75 xG and four big chances in mostly extremely outstanding ways.
Kylian Mbappé in particular turned up the heat after the break. He looked lively, creative and was a constant threat to the Senegalese defence. His performance was the key to the turnaround and the ultimately sovereign 3-1 victory of the Équipe Tricolore.
His first goal was a well-considered finish into the bottom left corner. The second goal in the 96th minute, on the other hand, drew a line under this game. Unsurprisingly, he was named man of the match and underlined his status as a potential World Cup 2026 top scorer.
With his brace, Mbappé became France’s sole record goalscorer and overtook Olivier Giroud. With 14 World Cup goals, he also surpassed Just Fontaine’s legendary mark. He made history with it!
Iraq Form Curve
For Iraq, the first matchday was a hard lesson. The team had no chance against Norway in the 4-1 defeat, as the offense around Erling Haaland and Alexander Sörloth was simply too strong. And on the second matchday, the task will be even more difficult.
The defense of Graham Arnold’s team revealed big gaps. They conceded 2.52 expected goals (xGA) from twelve shots and five big chances. The Norwegian efficiency was impressive and it is not to be expected that the French will behave differently!
Offensively, Iraq almost kept up with Norway (12) with eleven shots on goal, which makes a certain impression at first glance. However, only a single shot went on goal, resulting in an xG value of only 0.80. There is a lack of the necessary penetration here.
In order to have a chance of a positive result in the remaining two group games, the team must significantly improve in the conversion of chances. Against a world-class defence like Deschamps’, however, this will not be possible according to my France Iraq forecast.
The game against La Grand Nation should be similar to the one against Norway. France will take possession of the ball and control the game. I just don’t see a surprise in the offing here!
