Austria – Argentina Tip Football World Cup, Group J, Matchday 2 on Monday, 22.06.2026 at 19:00
There is still a long way to go to become the top scorer at the 2026 World Cup, but three goals in the first game already provide a good argument. Accordingly, I have also designed my Austria Argentina tip for the superstar’s second appearance at this tournament.
Because Lionel Messi is still trading tonight at extremely attractive betting odds of around 2.10. Despite his advanced age, the probably best player of his generation is more than just the mascot of the “Albiceleste”.
Incidentally, a goal against the ÖFB eleven would only be the natural consequence of his outstanding form. Did you know that before leaving for the national team, he was directly involved in 12 goals in his last five games for Inter Miami?
In my Austria Argentina prediction, however, not everything revolves around Lionel Messi. Other exciting betting approaches to the possible outcome of the game as well as the question of why Bwin’s World Cup betting offer is so great are also answered.
In any case, this encounter brings back great memories for the Argentine fans: the last time the two nations met, the Albiceleste later reached the World Cup final. Back then, in 1990, they parted ways with a hard-fought 1-1 draw.
Argentina – Austria: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our data model also looked at the game and dared to make its own prediction. The probability of Argentina winning is 57.8%, while a draw should be 23.2% and Austria should win 19.0%.
Artificial intelligence therefore sees the reigning world champion clearly ahead. This coincides with the general assessment of the experts and also with my personal Austria Argentina forecast. The roles in this game are therefore clearly divided.
In terms of goals, however, the tool expects a total value of 2.52. Argentina is credited with 1.68 goals and Austria with 0.84 goals. This points to a rather narrow victory for the South Americans, possibly a 2-0 or 2-1.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Argentina |
Draw |
Victory Austria |
| 57.8% |
23.2% |
19% |
It is also interesting to take a look at the Asian Handicap Line. This is -1.0 for Argentina. This means that Lionel Scaloni’s team must win by at least two goals for a bet on this line to be successful.
The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals, on the other hand, is 2.5. Since the AI tool’s forecast of 2.52 goals is almost exactly on this line, a bet on the number of goals is particularly tricky here. It seems to be a 50:50 affair!
However, our model clearly supports my primary Austria-Argentina tip! The probability of Lionel Messi scoring a goal is rated at a strong 52%. For me, this is another indicator that the captain could once again make the difference.
Argentina – Austria Prediction & Betting
Now we turn to the other betting approaches that I follow in this game in order to place another worthwhile Austria Argentina bet at a selected World Cup betting provider.
It will be a close game, but 1st goal & win: Argentina at odds of about 1.74 still seems to me to be a relatively safe combination bet. The ripped-off Albiceleste will probably celebrate their second victory in Group H according to exactly this pattern.
By the way: Only Lionel Messi really shone in the game against Algeria, his fellow striker Lautaro Martínez, on the other hand, looked pale. That’s why I think we’ll get another memorable performance from the World Player of the Year.
Messi 2+ goals is by no means a hopeless option in this context, which gives you odds of about 4.90 at bookmakers and thus has a first-class risk-reward ratio.
What you need to know about Argentina vs. Austria betting
- Argentina has a positive record against European teams (23 wins, 18 draws, 17 losses).
- Austria have lost just one of their last 12 games and won ten of them.
- In nine of Argentina’s last ten games, a maximum of one team has scored.
- Messi drew level with record holder Miroslav Klose with his 16th World Cup goal.
By the way, I have already mentioned the half-time final score bet Argentina/Argentina in the section on the odds boosts and in this regard you should definitely stop by Interwetten, as hardly any other bookie can top the 2.20 traded there.
By the way, I’m pretty confident that the world champion will score at least one brace. The ÖFB eleven has a good defense, but I will still dare to bet Argentina 2+ goals at odds of about 1.78.
I assume that the Austrians will score, but if we are guided by the facts alone, Argentina would at least be playable from a statistical perspective.
After all, the world champions have won seven of their last eight international matches without conceding a goal. Nevertheless, I can think of something even better in this context!
Because with the combination bet Argentina win & under 3.5 goals to 2.32 you cover a possible 2:1 of the favorite. So you don’t run any risk if the ÖFB eleven should actually get their honorary goal.
Last but not least, a pick that Oliver has on his list and which in my eyes is not necessarily likely, but still promising enough to be tried out thanks to the XXL odds of 7.30 – meaning a surprising 1:1 draw.
The best odds for Argentina vs. Austria
A look at the Austria Argentina odds confirms the role of the world champion as favourites. The bookmakers see the probability of an Argentine victory at around 64%. This corresponds to an odds that are often around 1.60.
The Albiceleste finally goes into the game as defending champions and with a convincing opening victory. The team looks well-rehearsed, defensively stable and with Messi has a player in the ranks who can decide a game single-handedly at any time.
A draw would already be a great success for the ÖFB selection, there is no doubt about that. However, the bookmakers make it clear with their values for a point split that it will be difficult to come to that!
Austria vs. Argentina Tactics & Match Analysis:
Lionel Messi stole the show with his hat-trick against Algeria and dispelled any doubts about his form. Argentina started their title defence with an impressive and confident performance that leaves them wanting more.
It was an all-round successful performance by the reigning champions. Midfielders Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister pulled the strings and set the pace of the game. Both had an outstanding pass completion rate of 94 percent.
Defensively, Lionel Scaloni’s men did not let anything go to waste. Algeria was limited to an xG value of only 0.32. Incidentally, it was the twelfth time in the last 17 games that the South Americans kept a clean sheet.
Now the star squad travels on to Texas, where Messi can overtake Miroslav Klose with just one more goal and become the sole World Cup record scorer.
This historic opportunity will give him additional motivation according to my Austria Argentina prediction, I’m sure.
However, the ÖFB selection is by no means an easy opponent. The team has lost only one of its last twelve games. Even though Argentina will have more possession, the Austrians are always dangerous from set pieces and with long-range shots.
For the “Albiceleste” it is also a rare endurance test. Apart from a friendly against Iceland, they have not met a European team since the 2022 final. That makes this encounter particularly interesting.
Argentina Form Curve
Argentina has started its mission to defend its title flawlessly. The 3-0 victory against Algeria was a demonstration of power, led by an outstanding Lionel Messi. There is hardly a better way to start a big tournament.
The 38-year-old forward made history again in Kansas City. He became the oldest player to score a hat-trick at a finals tournament and the first player to take part in six different tournaments. A man for the history books.
Lionel Scaloni’s starting line-up showed us why they are the team to beat in North America. Ten veterans of the 2022 triumph were on the pitch and did not give Algeria the slightest chance.
Incidentally, this sovereign performance was Argentina’s clearest opening victory since 1994. A stark contrast to the title defenses of 1982 and 1990, both of which began with defeats. This time the omens are different.
As is well known, successfully defending the title is a Herculean task that no men’s team has managed since Brazil 1962. But after this opening game, Argentina seems to be well on their way to reaching the knockout rounds.
In any case, the current form is impressive. Argentina has won all of its last eight games and conceded only one goal.
Austria form curve
Austria celebrated their first success at a finals tournament since 1990 with the victory against Jordan. This ended a long dry spell for the team, having last participated in such a tournament in 1998. A historic moment.
The team played at a high pace in the first half and had 18 touches of the ball in the opponent’s penalty area. However, the team also revealed defensive gaps. Jordan, for its part, had 15 actions in the Austrian box.
Romano Schmid took the lead with a long-range shot worth seeing. He was the first Austrian since Ivica Vastic exactly 26 years ago to score from outside the penalty area at a final tournament. A goal for eternity.
Although both teams had eleven shots and four of them on target, a late penalty helped Austria finish the game with an xG value of 1.66, while Jordan only managed 0.53. In the end, efficiency was the key to success.
Experienced striker Marko Arnautovic sealed the victory with his goal. With 48 goals, the 37-year-old extended his lead in the all-time ÖFB scorer list and consolidated his legendary status in the national team.
With this victory, Austria also continued a curious series. In 30 finals games, there has never been a goalless draw. And according to my Austria-Argentina forecast, there should not be a zero number on Monday either.
