Venezuela Mexico betting tip
There was no big surprise on matchday 1 of the 2024 European Championship, but there was one overseas at this year’s Copa America.
After the opening fiasco, Ecuador will now have to work harder than ever to at least finish second in Group B.
Unlike here in Europe, the limited number of participants means that there is no chance of being involved in the knockout phase beyond 3rd place.
However, this is irrelevant for my Venezuela Mexico prediction for the time being, as it is only about determining the group winner.
And this match could be more exciting than the European Championship betting providers seem to be assuming with their Venezuela Mexico odds at the moment
VEN and MEX share top spot in Group B after winning their respective opening games with decisive second-half goals (more on that in a moment).
Should a winner emerge from this clash, they would maneuver themselves into a very advantageous position, as six points have almost always been enough to advance from a group of four.
Incidentally, this edition already represents an improvement for Venezuela, as they failed to record a single win in the group stage of the last Copa America three years ago (2 draws, 2 defeats).
The prediction of the bookmakers?
A rethink seems to be taking place on the betting markets. The “Vinotinto” is being shown more and more respect for its performance.
Although it is still not enough to be assigned the role of favorite within the Venezuela Mexico odds, the bookies are almost open-minded, but only “almost”.
The Mexico odds for a win are on average 2.25, lower than the Venezuela odds of around 3.80.
By the way: In the event of a points draw, both teams will certainly progress and the odds of around 3.20 traded in this context are also not bad from a betting professional’s point of view.
Analysis: Venezuela vs Mexico
In retrospect, Venezuela were only able to secure a surprise 2-1 win over Ecuador on matchday 1 because their opponents’ national hero Enner Valencia made a momentous mistake.
The experienced striker stepped on his opponent’s chest with his foot in a tackle in the penalty area, which resulted in him having to leave the pitch early with a straight red card in the 22nd minute.
Although Ecuador briefly took the lead without him, it did not last long. As the game wore on, fatigue set in and Venezuela overtook them on the scoreboard at the start of the final half hour (2:1).
Venezuela have improved significantly in recent months, but it is also clear that the game would have been very different against a full-strength Ecuadorian side last Sunday.
However, their upcoming opponents seem to have their best days behind them. According to my successful Mexico Jamaica betting tip, the Central Americans did indeed have great difficulties with the supposed underdogs.
Nevertheless, Arteaga managed to score the only goal of the game in the course of the second half after Romo’s assist, helping his team to a somewhat flattering victory.
All in all, I’m still not expecting much from Mexico at this Copa America
Odds analysis
Just a few weeks ago, the Venezuela Mexico odds would have been much higher for a soccer bet like the one I intend to place using a sports betting app.
Since the double chance 1X bet does not fully satisfy my betting needs for this match, I will also resort to an under 3.5 goal bet.
Only 30% of Mexico’s last ten international matches have cracked this goal mark and with combined odds of these two events of around 2.07, I feel I’m in good hands with the Bwin app.
Perfect breeding ground for a special goal bet?
I already had the feeling beforehand that this game would be low-scoring. After all, both teams defend quite successfully, but have difficulties making advances into the opponent’s third of the pitch.
During my research, however, this theory was confirmed by the Mexicans’ recent international record.
In the last two head-to-head meetings between Mexico and Jamaica, as well as in 12 of Mexico’s last 13 competitive matches, at least one of the teams involved has failed to score.
Venezuela: “Surprise” with an announcement?
There are clear signs of a surprise. Mexico are no longer as strong as they used to be in the past, while Venezuela have been able to celebrate some unexpected victories since the fall of 2023.
For example, qualifying victories over Paraguay (1-0) and Chile (3-0) as well as a 1-1 draw against Brazil around nine months ago, which can also be considered a great success for the “Vinotinto”.
Sixteen Mexican players on the pitch against Jamaica celebrated a successful debut at the Copa America after a bumpy preparation phase shortly beforehand.
With this 1:0 victory against a clear underdog, the Central Americans only partially whitewashed the two sometimes bitter test match defeats against Uruguay (0:4) and Brazil (2:3).
By the way: For one of the 22 players who will be on the pitch on Thursday, the Sofi Stadium is a very special place.
Mexican striker Santiago Giménez was the hero at this very venue 11 months ago when he scored the only goal in the 2023 Gold Cup final against Panama.
Nevertheless, I wouldn’t advise you to bet on goals here, as I don’t expect many goals in a thoroughly uneventful match anyway
My tip:
MEX will go down against the first team of comparable strength.
The Central Americans are simply struggling to maintain the form of previous years and now face a real challenge.
Venezuela, after all, have quietly developed into a respectable team in the CONMEBOL zone.
However, I am trying to strike a good compromise between risk and odds with my Venezuela Mexico betting tip.
This is my Venezuela Mexico prediction: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals
