West Ham – Brighton betting tip, prediction & odds 21.12.2024

Premier League, Saturday, 21.12.2024 at 16:00

Fabian Hürzeler is facing something of a mini-crisis for the first time in his tenure at the Seagulls.

Brighton have gone four competitive games without a win (2U, 2N) and only lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace on the final matchday. During that match, captain Lewis Dunk looked unfortunate, not for the first time since returning from injury.

That’s not the only reason why I’m giving my West Ham Brighton betting tip at LeoVegas at odds of 2.10 on “West Ham over 1.5 goals”

Before we go into the West Ham Brighton betting tip in more detail, let’s take a look at the odds distribution of the bookmakers for this duel.

So far, the Hammers have won just one of 14 Premier League matches against Brighton (7U, 6N), which is why the odds of around 2.90 for a home win don’t seem too far-fetched.

However, as mentioned above, the visitors are in poor form at the London Stadium, so the odds of 2.35 for a “Brighton win” are also pretty tempting.

Julen Lopetegui has been accused of a lack of consistency in the Irons’ results, and not without good reason, which is why I am moving away from the classic three-way bet in this pairing.

My West Ham Brighton betting tip is not based on the strengths of a team, but rather the weaknesses of a team. In this case, a lot revolves around the Seagulls’ current situation.

Fabian Hürzeler’s team are conceding too many cheap goals and are often robbing themselves of a better points haul as a result. The current lack of form of captain Lewis Dunk (33) is not something the German coach can use at all at this stage.

Hürzeler himself spread the public pressure over the entire team and pointed out that there was more behind the goals conceded than just weak defending.

No matter how you look at it, one thing is certain: Brighton need to get a better grip on their own penalty area. The Seagulls have conceded over 1.5 goals in ten of their last 14 competitive games

In addition, the number of goals conceded (25.9 xGA) is far too high and is only good enough for a place in the lower midfield.

Much of this is closely linked to the way they defend around their own penalty area. No other team in the Premier League conceded a higher rate of shots inside their own penalty area than the visitors (80.83%).

This is also the reason for the rather high xGA value per opponent shot (0.13 xGA/shot), which is only surpassed by two other league rivals.

A goalkeeper in good form would be an advantage in such a phase, but the 31-year-old does not have one at the moment.

Bart Verbruggen has only saved 63.6 percent of the balls that have come his way – 17th out of 20 in the comparison of goalkeepers in the English top flight.

The Seagulls have now conceded over 1.5 goals in three Premier League games in a row. In addition, Brighton have conceded at least two goals in half of their appearances as visitors.

On average, the host team have conceded 1.63 goals per league game against the Seagulls. That should encourage the Hammers and perhaps persuade you to include an odds boost in your West Ham Brighton betting tip.

West Ham are in a solid mid-table position in the Premier League (10th) with 24.4 expected goals and have even taken 241 shots – the fifth-highest figure in English top-flight soccer!

The hosts’ great strength lies in the resting ball. The Hammers have recently scored five goals in a row from set-pieces and 43% of their goals this season.

The home side have been in extremely good form at London Stadium recently, picking up ten points from their previous five Premier League home games (3S, 1U, 1N).

Brighton have conceded “Over 2.5 goals” in two of their last three league games and have conceded at least two goals in all three.

West Ham have scored at least two goals in three of their previous five league games and have once again demonstrated their strength in possession.

My West Ham Brighton tip is therefore: West Ham to score at least two goals

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