La Liga, Friday, 03.01.2025 at 21:00
Yes, nobody wants to break away!? There is an intense battle for the top in our La Liga championship betting – also because the defending champions have not shown their best side recently.
It is therefore essential to win the catch-up game on Friday, as the Whites are once again not on the “1”.
In my Valencia Real Madrid betting tip, I’ll tell you why I think the home side will put up a strong fight and therefore say: Both teams will meet!
Somehow Real Madrid imagined their farewell from 2024 differently! Once again, it was a very successful season, with the Whites ending it with the league title and the Handle Cup.
For the new 2024/25 season, they knew that Barcelona and Atletico had upgraded, so defending the title would not be an easy mission. No sooner said than done, this trio is now very close together:
41 points for Atletico, 40 for Real, 38 for Barca (although the Catalans have already played one more game), a duel could soon develop in the capital. A duel in which the team currently second in the table must ensure it does not lose out.
The reigning champions went into the short winter break with a 2-1 defeat against Athletic Bilbao – which also saw the Basques close the gap on FC Barcelona to two points.
3:3 against Rayo Vallecano, 4:2 against Sevilla and then 1:2 against Bilbao – the last three games revealed some defensive weaknesses. For the first time since Barca’s 4-0 dismantling, the score against Athletic was 0-0 at the break.
After four wins without conceding a goal, the defense obviously thought: Let’s show that we can do things differently! Seven goals conceded in three games, three times in a row more than two? That’s never happened before!
What’s more, we’ve now failed to win away from home twice in a row. Well, the Whites always score away from home, but have now also conceded five goals in just two matches.
The injury list that Real have been struggling with for months is at least thinning out, with only Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao still missing. The team must now try to overcome their slight weakness on the road
While it may seem a little strange at first, when a club like Real Madrid only win four out of nine appearances, it is noticeable in comparison to the home games (eight wins and one defeat).
Now, of course, I automatically look at the history, because if two clubs have already played 209 matches against each other, there are surely one or two important facts to work out here.
Two wins, one defeat and two draws? The most recent games weren’t really that clear-cut! I’m now expanding my view to include the venue. So how will the Whites perform in Valencia?
Three wins from their last eleven away games – what’s going on? The last time Real played to nil in Valencia was in January 2013, so it’s certainly not an easy draw to start this new year
Since that day, there has only been one clash without either side scoring. And yet, Real is so clearly favored on Friday that the odds show an average of 1.40 to 7.70.
Valencia are second last and have only won twice, so the odds are easy to understand. Nobody has won less often, Betis Sevilla and Girona have been beaten.
The many slip-ups, even against the relegation candidates, do not allow a jump up the table. At least the attack works better at home. Four goals away, twelve at home, that’s a huge difference.
There have only been two home games in which Valencia have failed to score. Which has never happened at the Mestalla: A lead for the home side after the first 45 minutes. If Real are leading at half-time, you could secure odds of 1.90 at Betano.
Can Real Madrid get back on track? It was extremely unfortunate for the Whites to end the year on a losing note. Atletico have moved past them, so they now need to become even more stable away from home and should give up the draws.
Defensively, Real have been outplayed more often recently. Valencia may be a club in crisis with only two wins to their name. However, the Blanquinegros have not looked bad at home against the Madrilenians for a few years now.
As the visitors haven’t scored a goal at the Mestalla in almost twelve years, I’ve decided to give both teams an offensive chance and bet on them:
Real and Valencia score!
