Bundesliga 18. Matchday, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 3:30 PM
The first half of the season is over, or as they would put it on the Isar: befitting of the first 17 rounds. On Saturday, our 1. Bundesliga tips officially continue for Munich, with an absolute favorite opponent as a guest.
In my Bayern Wolfsburg betting tip, I can’t help but mention that the Wolves would probably rather go to the dentist than travel to FCB. And yet: my “both teams score” betting tip at least gives them a mini-chance offensively.
Actually, the guests are not doing too badly, only scoring five goals against Mönchengladbach on the last match day. But somehow the German record champions just can’t win, and there’s no end in sight to this series yet.
So I don’t need to tell you that this game is once again presented in a “David against Goliath” style. Bayern home games, you’ve been asking yourself for months: three, four, five, how many goals will there be?
There are really only very, very few people who don’t expect a clear-cut game on Saturday. I’ll tell you in my betting tip why I’m betting on goals from both teams. But: a nice 5-1 win for Bayern wouldn’t be out of the question, of course!
The betting providers’ prediction?
You know the drill: Bayern are playing at home in the Bundesliga and so on… it’s not worth betting on a win only! With our tax-free betting providers, you won’t even get odds of 1.20 on average.
On the other hand, if Wolfsburg scores a hat-trick, the odds go up across the board to between 12.0 and 14.0 – which is hardly surprising given their opponents’ poor form.
Wolfsburg managed to get two points in Munich, so basically nothing. A draw on Saturday would therefore probably be celebrated, but with average odds of 7.50, it doesn’t sound particularly realistic either.
KI prediction Bayern vs Wolfsburg: That’s what ChatGPT is betting on
This is not about whether Bayern will win, but only about the question of how high the victory will be! ChatGPT is certain that the game is over before it even starts. So what high-risk bet does the AI come up with?
It tries the classic approach with an outcome bet, and it’s a 3-0. Realistic? 2-0, 2-0, 4-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 6-0, if you look at FCB’s last home wins against Wolfsburg, a 3-0 could well be on the cards.
The medium risk refers to the fact that the league leaders win with a handicap of -2, so a 3-0 win would also be possible. Since the Munich team have always won their home games very clearly since mid-October, this tip also has my approval.
How many goals will the home side end up scoring? According to the AI, the bet “Over 2.5 goals Bayern” is a good one. Here, too, the same principle has applied for many months in Munich: with 53 goals in the season, there could easily be at least three against their favorite opponent.
Would this first half of the season have deserved a bigger points lead? Bayern have earned a cushion of four points over Leverkusen, which is probably about right for the first half of the season.
After the somewhat sluggish 1-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach, the league leaders stepped up a gear and won 5-0 against Hoffenheim. Certainly not an overwhelming opponent, but they might still have had a harder time of it in 2023/24.
The record of this brain round: one defeat, 13 wins, 53 goals scored and 13 goals conceded – all best values! The offense is by far the strongest, and in fact no one can keep up defensively either.
The German record champions have already played nine times to zero, and in 11 of the 17 games, at least three of their own goals were scored. In their own stadium, it is finally the case again that hardly anything is allowed.
Odds Analysis
The Bavarians have struggled to ignite the turbo before half-time for a few games, but now there were three goals against Hoffenheim. Since the Wolves always score in the first half away from home, with two exceptions, I can well imagine the bet “Over 1.5 goals 1st half”.
At Betano, you get odds of 1.90 if there are at least two goals in the first half. You can go even riskier, because if the Wolves score in this period, the odds jump to 3.05!
Of course, you can make it easy for yourself and bet on a Kane goal if the odds of 1.50 are enough for you. But since Thomas Müller has already scored 17 times against VfL in his career, and he has only been without a goal once at home since 2017, you can also use the odds of 2.62, which are available at Bet365.
Bayern vs. Wolfsburg: All a question of height?
Only four goals have been scored against at the Allianz Arena for FCB, it’s curious that two of them were scored by FC Heidenheim. 5-0 against Hoffenheim, 5-1 against Leipzig, 4-2 against FCH, 3-0 against Augsburg and Union Berlin, 4-0 against Stuttgart? Not too bad, the last home games!
The league leaders’ offense is the showpiece, with Harry Kane returning from injury with two goals and an assist. He actually didn’t score against Wolfsburg in the first half of the season, but he did provide two assists.
The Englishman is now facing his first home game against Wolfsburg, having missed the 2023/24 season with back problems. Perhaps he’ll get tips from his colleague Thomas Müller?
Wolfsburg is traveling to Munich cautiously but confidently
He has scored 15 goals and provided 17 assists against Wolfsburg in his career! So the Bavarian statistics against their absolute favorite opponent have to be correspondingly strong.
19 wins and two draws since April 2009, when the 5-1 defeat occurred, and just one loss. Defeats at home? Not a single one, with the only draws at home coming in 2001 and 2017.
It seems that it really is only about the extent of the victory, so VfL are reluctantly embarking on this journey on Saturday. Although the Lower Saxony team could actually board the plane with their chests held high, as their form is not that bad.
After the 1-0 win over Hoffenheim at the start of 2025, the Wolves swept away 5-1 against Borussia Mönchengladbach – so Wolfsburg and Bayern have had the same opponents so far.
Six of the last eight games have been won, with only two defeats since mid-October. 3:4 in Leverkusen (in the last second) and 2:3 in Freiburg? With two defeats, the team is selling itself very strongly in foreign countries.
They kept a clean sheet against Kiel, St. Pauli and Hoffenheim, and these three teams are among the absolute candidates for relegation. On the other hand, I would like to mention that Wolfsburg has always scored goals, with the exception of a 0-0 at the Millerntor.
With 38:29 hits, this results in an average of 3.9 per game, which is really quite impressive. What impresses me almost even more: the Lower Saxony team has already taken a lead into half-time six times away from home – but Bayern has never been behind at home either.
My Bayern Wolfsburg Tip:
Bayern are playing at home against VfL Wolfsburg – what could be better! After looking at the head-to-head, you can definitely come to this conclusion, because nothing can go wrong against the Wolves.
However, we also know that the guests are bursting with self-confidence and have only scored once this season. With 38 goals, VfL has the second-best away strike force with 19 goals.
That’s why I decided to give the hosts a little wobble in defense. Hoffenheim was really no match for them in the 5-0 win. So my tip for you is:
Both teams will score!
