Copa Libertadores 2024, Thursday, 25.04.2024
While here in Europe the Champions League 2023/24 will only start its exciting phase next week, the preliminary round of the “premier league” is currently taking place on the South American continent.
In my Libertad River Plate betting tip, I am of the opinion that the odds of bookmakers such as NEObet for this match can be wonderfully torpedoed with a DC-1X bet
River Plate had a strong Apertura and finished first in Group A, which gave them the supposedly easiest draw in the play-offs: a clash against the fourth-placed team in Group B.
On Saturday, the Millonarios faced Boca Junors in a match that ultimately went to the visitors with a 2:3 victory.
But just a few days later, the focus must return to the Copa Libertadores, where a win over Libertad Asuncion could see them take a huge step towards the knockout phase.
That would be the norm, incidentally, as River Plate have progressed from the group stage of this prestigious competition without interruption since 2014.
With regard to Thursday, however, I have the uneasy feeling that River Plate will either drop points or concede goals for the first time in this group stage – maybe even both!
The Millonarios survived the first two matchdays in Group H against Deportivo Tachira (2-0) and Nacional (2-0) without staining their keeper’s pristine white vest.
But the Paraguayans are supposedly the strongest opponents in the group and also seem to have a permanent ticket to the knockout phase of this competition.
In the previous season, however, Libertad Asuncion were surprisingly eliminated in the preliminary round, as the lottery with Athletico-PR and Atletico Mineiro as group opponents did not mean well for them…
What speaks in Libertad’s favor is that they are still undefeated in their domestic league competition after 14 matchdays (9 wins, 5 draws).
Of course, the Paraguayan Division Profesional is no benchmark, but they need this treble more than River Plate and also have the necessary playing potential to successfully implement this plan.
On the first two matchdays of the group stage, however, they suffered a 2-0 away defeat at Nacional, which was followed by a commanding 3-0 home win over Deportivo Tachira.
In general, their renewed “home advantage” could be crucial in the upcoming game…
River Plate is a complete team, complemented by extremely talented youngsters such as Sebastian Boselli.
However, it is clear that the Argentinians are not always successful away from home.
They have only won two of their last six competitive matches.
And in view of the intense play-off duel against Boca Juniors last weekend, I can also well imagine that coach Martin Demichelis, who is well known to Bayern fans, will want to rest some of his regular players
Meanwhile, the sports betting providers make a Libertad River Plate bet tasty by the fact that their odds run counter to my forecast.
With average odds of 1.87 to 4.00, the bookies are assuming that it will be the Argentinians who come out on top!
However, precisely because I am convinced that this does not necessarily have to be the case, the double chance 1x odds of around 1.88 are the focus of my attention
In addition, you should know that both opponents are old acquaintances, as their duels in this competition can be traced back to 2003.
When analyzing the data, I found it interesting, for example, that the two clubs have only been able to agree on a draw once in their twelve previous meetings.
Much more relevant to my Libertad River Plate prediction, however, was the realization that the Paraguayans have won four of their last five home games against this opponent.
That impresses me! However, the last time they faced the Argentinians was in 2014, just over a decade ago.
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Conclusion: I think the bookmakers are greatly underestimating the Paraguayans’ ability to score.
River Plate have just had an intense game that had the character of a play-off and at the same time cost the players a lot of energy. Moreover, a win next Thursday is not essential for them to progress from the preliminary round.
Libertad, on the other hand, are confident that they can always produce their best performances at home! In view of the odds, I believe they can at least draw.
My Libertad River Plate tip for you: Double chance 1X.
