Mainz – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 15 on Sunday, 21/12/2025 at 15:30 CET
On the last matchday before the winter break, FSV Mainz and FC St. Pauli will face a relegation thriller in the Bundesliga. While the St. Paulians have to make do with the relegation place after 14 games, FSV will spend the winter at the bottom of the table in any case.
The fact is that the St. Paulians were able to stabilize noticeably on the home stretch of the year. The cup success against Gladbach was followed by two solid performances in the Bundesliga against Cologne (1-1) and Heidenheim (2-1). Accordingly, I trust the neighbourhood club to score points in Mainz as well.
Since both teams are extremely vulnerable defensively, however, I primarily target the classic “Both teams score” at a strong odd of around 1.90 at Betano for my Mainz St. Pauli tip.
Although Mainz was able to gain new self-confidence with the 2-2 draw against Bayern, I see FSV at a disadvantage against St. Pauli. After all, Mainz were still in action in the Conference League against Samsunspor during the week and could not prepare for the relegation cracker in peace.
Mainz also speaks of the blatant home weakness. In fact, FSV is the only team not to have won a single home game so far. Two home points after 14 matchdays speak the language of a designated relegation.
Mainz – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips
As usual, I would like to recommend three more tip alternatives at this point. This time we start with a result bet. Pauli has been in better form recently, Mainz has the nominal home advantage. The “1:1 draw” is therefore suitable at odds around 6.70.
Of course, the “Double Chance X2” is also interesting. Mainz are still without a home win and have the Conference League game in their bones. I think it’s very likely that Pauli will earn at least one point. The odds at German bookmakers are about 1.85.
Since I expect an overall tight game, “draw at half-time” is also a good idea. The odds around 2.00 are set comparatively low, but in view of the initial situation, they clearly belong to the area of value bets for me.
What you need to know about Mainz vs. St. Pauli betting
- Mainz have not kept a clean sheet in their last 25 Bundesliga games – the longest run without a clean sheet in the club’s top-flight history and currently also the longest in the league.
- St. Pauli have only scored 13 goals this Bundesliga season, making them the weakest offense in the competition together with Heidenheim and Mainz. With an average of 10.9 shots per game, the Hamburg team also has the second fewest shots on goal in the league – only Mainz is below with 10.6.
- In the last five direct duels between Mainz and St. Pauli, a total of 16 goals have been scored, which corresponds to an average of 3.2 goals per game. However, the bet “Both teams to score – Yes” was only successful in two of these five matches.
- No player who could be in action in the upcoming game has scored more goals this Bundesliga season than St. Pauli’s Andréas Hountondji (4). On the Mainz side, Nadiem Amiri is the team’s most successful goalscorer in the current season with three goals from twelve appearances.
Mainz – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
If things are going well in the basement of the table, our AI model is of course not far away. Accordingly, you don’t have to do without a Mainz St. Pauli AI prediction.
In this case, however, the digital brain and yours truly do not agree. Because the AI sees Mainz against Pauli with advantages. “Sieg Mainz” has a proud odds of around 2.60, but in my opinion it is a very risky selection for a team without a home win.
In the second tip, the AI expands the Mainz victory into a combination. “Win FSV & Both Teams Score” is quoted at around 4.25. My counterproposal: “Double chance X2 & both teams score” at odds around 3.25.
The third tip then brings us together again. “Under 2.5 goals” makes sense at odds around 1.70 even without an odds boost. After all, Mainz and St. Pauli have only scored 13 goals each this season. And since I’ve already decided on a 1:1, this selection is also perfectly fine for me.
The best odds for Mainz vs. St. Pauli
The odds for the duel between Mainz and St. Pauli see the hosts in the role of favorites in the 1X2 market. The win rate for Mainz implies a probability of winning of 51 percent. St. Pauli, on the other hand, is only given a 24 percent chance of victory by the bookmakers.
The Asian handicap line is 0.5 for the upcoming game. The handicap St. Pauli +0.5 is successful if the guests avoid defeat. If the match ends in a draw, this bet also pays off completely. The handicap Mainz -0.5, on the other hand, only pays out if the home side win the game.
An Asian goal line of over/under 2.25 goals was also set for the game. Given the Bundesliga average of 3.22 goals per 90 minutes – almost one goal more than the 2.25 line – this market could be attractive to many bettors.
However, only five teams have scored an average of less than 3.0 goals per game league-wide this season. Both Mainz and St. Pauli belong to this group with 2.79 goals per game each.
In the market for the goalscorer at any time, Mainz attacker Armando Sieb is considered the favorite to score. At St. Pauli, Matijn Kaars leads the list of likely goalscorers after scoring twice in the 2-1 win against Heidenheim.
Mainz vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
Mainz are currently at the bottom of the table and will face St. Pauli, who are two places and four points ahead of Rheinhessen. A win would be an enormous boost for both teams in the relegation battle – accordingly, an intense and entertaining game is to be expected.
Mainz’s style of play has changed since the dismissal of Bo Henriksen at the beginning of the month. Although the club basically sticks to pressing, it has proven to be less effective so far, which is reflected in the placement in the lower half of the table in the PPDA value (passes allowed per defensive action).
Against FC Bayern, Mainz played much deeper, but remained dangerous on the counterattack – an approach that could also be promising against St. Pauli.
Despite the relegation battle, St. Pauli ranks fourth in the league in the so-called field tilt, a key figure for measuring territorial dominance. However, if Hamburg remain inefficient with the ball in the front zones, spaces open up for transition situations – an area in which Mainz has had its strengths in the past.
The underlying data points to a high-scoring encounter, as both teams are among the five teams with the highest xGA (Expected Goals Against) values in the Bundesliga.
In addition, Mainz games are among the richest in the league: In the overall statistics, they are in fourth place. In view of the importance of this game immediately before the winter break, many duels and a heated atmosphere are to be expected.
Mainz Form Check
FSV Mainz 05 have been waiting for a win in ten league games and have averaged only 0.4 points and 0.8 goals per game in this period.
In addition, Mainz have gone without a clean sheet in their last 25 Bundesliga games – the longest run without a clean sheet in the club’s history in the top flight and currently the longest in the league.
So far this season, Mainz have scored only 13 goals and, together with St. Pauli and Heidenheim, have the weakest attack in the Bundesliga. With an average of 10.6 shots on goal per game, the Rheinhessen team has the fewest shots in the league.
The xG value of 1.17 per game is the third-worst in the league, even though a valuable point was won last weekend with the 2-2 away draw at FC Bayern.
The upcoming game is of great importance in the relegation battle, but follows a Conference League game against Samsunspor and thus increases the pressure on Mainz.
In fact, the 05ers have not won any of the seven games this season that followed games in the Conference League or the DFB Cup – an indication that the squad has so far been unable to absorb the multiple burdens insufficiently.
With just seven points from 14 games, Mainz is currently experiencing the second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history, with even fewer points only in the 2020/21 season (six points).
In addition, Mainz are winless in twelve Bundesliga home games (seven draws, five defeats) – the longest home winning streak in their top-flight history and currently also the longest in the league.
A small glimmer of hope: The last home win was against upcoming opponents St. Pauli (2-0 in February). It was also the last Bundesliga game so far in which Mainz kept a clean sheet.
St. Pauli Form Check
FC St. Pauli’s long-term form has been disappointing: In the last 13 competitive games, only two wins have been achieved. On the last matchday, however, the Hamburg team ended their ten-game winning streak in the Bundesliga and celebrated their first league win since mid-September.
St. Pauli is currently unbeaten in three competitive games (two wins, one draw). In the past 14 games across all competitions, however, the team has conceded at least one goal in every game.
With only 13 goals scored, St. Pauli has the weakest offense in the league this Bundesliga season, along with Heidenheim and Mainz. In addition, the Kiezkicker have the second fewest shots on goal with an average of 10.9 shots per game – only Mainz has a lower value with 10.6.
The high PPDA value (passes per defensive action) of 17.4 is also striking, the highest value in the league and an indicator that St. Pauli allows the opponent a particularly large number of passes per defensive action.
St. Pauli have been waiting for a Bundesliga win on foreign ground since the 2-0 win at Hamburger SV on Matchday 2. In the following six away games, the team picked up only one point (one draw, five defeats).
In these six games, St. Pauli scored only three goals. Overall, the away record is extremely weak with only one of a possible 18 points.
