Atletico – Saint Gilloise Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Tuesday, 11/04/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Beating the seven-time Europa League winners from sunny Seville 3-0 at the weekend should be seen as a strong signal from the Rojiblancos to their rivals.
That’s another reason why I think they’ll be victorious next Tuesday, according to my Atletico Saint Gilloise tip. Especially since they desperately need points and the Belgians can’t quite keep up at this level anyway.
A few stark facts alone should be enough to discourage you from placing even a completely risk-free free bet on the visitors.
Did you know, for example, that Atletico has not lost any of its last 16 Champions League home games against a club that does not belong to the top five European leagues?
A Belgian club visiting the Metropolitano Stadium could therefore be fighting a losing battle, so to speak.
After a rather disappointing start to the new edition of Europe’s premier club competition, Atletico is certainly not burying its head in the sand – on the contrary!
Precisely because they have already lost two of their three group stage games in this Champions League season (as many as in the previous two years combined), Diego Simeone is unlikely to let the team rest on its laurels.
The Argentine hates to lose, and knowing his mentality, the reaction is likely to be a venomous one.
Union St. Gilloise can therefore expect intense pressing, early ball wins, and enormous pressure in the opening minutes. Atletico wants to and will make a statement after their 4-0 thrashing by Arsenal!
Atletico Madrid – Union Saint Gilloise Prediction & Bets
1st goal & win Atletico is one of the first suggestions I entered into the Interwetten app. It’s just a shame that the odds for this selection, averaging only 1.40, lead to a modest payout.
However, precisely because the Belgians have lost their last two Champions League games 0-4, I am currently more enthusiastic about the selection “Atletico to win with HC -2.”
The odds are quite attractive at an average of 2.80, and it is quite possible that the Spaniards will be leading 2-0 before the break and will even extend their lead after the break.
What you need to know about betting on Atletico vs. Saint Gilloise
- After a weak start to the season, Atletico Madrid leads the five-game form table in La Liga with 13 out of 15 points (ahead of Real Madrid with 12).
- Union Saint-Gilloise has the best record of all 16 first division teams in Belgium with 2.42 points per 90 minutes (9W/2D/1L).
- Only two players have a ratio of less than 2.0 goals per game: favorite Alexander Sörloth (still goalless) ahead of Atlético’s Julian Álvarez (7 goals in the Champions League & La Liga).
- Julian Álvarez has scored 16 goals in 18 Champions League starts, including 8 in 12 for Atlético Madrid.
- First meeting between Atlético Madrid and Union SG; the Spaniards have won only 2 of their 6 games against Belgian teams (2D, 2L) and are winless in 3 games.
- Atletico has failed to score in its last 3 Champions League games against Belgian teams – all against Club Brugge (2D, 1L).
Atletico Madrid – Union Saint Gilloise: AI tip & odds analysis
Antoine Griezmann to score is a selection that our Atletico Madrid Union Saint Gilloise AI prediction strongly recommends – and for good reason.
Not only because of the attractive odds of around 1.80, but above all because the Frenchman has been directly involved in at least one goal in each of his last 12 Champions League home games (9 goals, 3 assists).
However, my digital betting friend is even more enthusiastic about the selection Julian Alvarez to score.
This is because Griezmann’s strike partner has been directly involved in even more goals (10 goals, 5 assists) in his last 15 home games in this competition.
In my opinion, these are two great suggestions that are not mutually exclusive, as the Spaniards should score around 4 goals on Tuesday.
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals is another excellent suggestion that the AI served up to me at the touch of a button.
The odds of around 3.30 are impressive, and if Simeone’s team gets into a rage, they could dispatch the Belgians at the Metropolitano Stadium in a similar fashion to how they did with Eintracht Frankfurt a few months ago.
The best odds for Atletico Madrid vs. Union Saint Gilloise
If you bet on Atletico Madrid, the best sports betting providers offer odds of around 1.27, which in turn is linked to a probability of around 78 to 80 percent.
A draw, on the other hand, promises betting odds of around 6.00, which corresponds to a chance of about 16 percent. This is worthwhile if you are speculating on a tough game or a surprise in which Atletico does not come through.
A Union Saint Gilloise win is extremely high at 10.0, which means an estimated chance of success of around 9-10 percent. For the brave, this is of course a fat odds, but the risk is correspondingly high.
In short: the Atletico Madrid vs. Union Saint Gilloise odds show a clear gap between the two teams – favorite vs. underdog, as is often the case in the Champions League.
Virtually every bookmaker makes it clear who should be in charge here – and I can only agree with this assessment!
Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint Gilloise match analysis:
This looks like it will be a pretty one-sided game. Atletico will take command from the start, secure control in midfield, and dictate the pace.
Frankfurt may be stronger than Union Saint-Gilloise, but even the Hessians had little influence in the center against the Spaniards.
That’s exactly where the crux of the matter lies: Atletico will once again dominate the midfield, distribute the ball quickly and repeatedly look for Julian Alvarez to exploit the gaps in the opposing defense.
The Belgians, on the other hand, will try to stay compact, but that will hardly be enough in the long run against the Spaniards’ fast, technically clean passing game.
Statistically, everything speaks against them anyway – Belgian teams traditionally have no say away in Spain: only two wins in 22 games, the last one almost 20 years ago, in 2005 by Anderlecht at Real Betis. Since then, there have only been defeats or lucky draws.
So you can assume that Atletico will clearly dictate the game. The ball will circulate safely through their own ranks, while the Belgians will find little relief.
Sooner or later, the pressure will become too great, and the Spaniards will take advantage of their chances with clinical precision. Anything other than a clear home win would be a real surprise.
Atletico Madrid form check
Atletico is simply on fire at the moment and could actually be in contention for the title in the 2025/26 season.
The team is brutally well-rehearsed and has won all of its last six home games – that speaks for itself.
Sevilla was confidently dispatched 3-0 at the weekend, and both Alvarez and Griezmann, who are predicted to score on Tuesday according to AI predictions, both found the net in the aforementioned La Liga game against the Andalusians.
No coincidence, with an xG value of 3.48! This shows how dominant Atletico are at the moment – clinical up front, compact at the back, and with a body language that really makes you want to succeed.
It should be a very similar game against Union St. Gilloise: Atletico will control the action, build pressure early on, and create a lot of chances again.
The fans at the Metropolitano can look forward to a confident team that is almost unstoppable at home.
If they maintain this form, the next success should be a mere formality – anything else would be a real surprise.
Union Saint Gilloise form check
Union St. Gilloise is a real force in Belgium – 7 wins from their last 8 competitive games against domestic opponents speak for themselves.
But as soon as they play internationally, it becomes clear that the Belgians still have a lot of room for improvement. They suffered heavy 4-0 defeats against Inter and Newcastle, and that was anything but bad luck.
Their own xG value in both games was not even above 1.00, so they were far from deserving a consolation goal.
There is little going on offensively, and striker Promise David is often left completely isolated – this is unlikely to change against Atletico.
Defensively, Union is also anything but stable. The game against Inter in particular made this clear: the Milanese had an xG value of 4.55, which would have justified an even higher score.
This clearly shows how vulnerable the Belgians are at the back when their opponents combine pace and precision.
If Atletico play with the same intensity as they did against Sevilla, it could be really uncomfortable for Union. Another big win for the Spaniards is definitely within the realm of possibility.
