Liverpool – Real Madrid Prediction Champions League, Matchday 4 on Tuesday, 11/04/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
The fourth matchday of the Champions League preliminary round promises to be a real treat. Liverpool FC will face Real Madrid in front of their home crowd and will be looking to finally make some positive headlines again with a convincing performance.
In my Liverpool Real Madrid tip, I therefore assume that the English will look to go on the offensive from the start and conjure up an open exchange of blows. The bet “Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals” at odds of around 1.55 at Betano is the logical conclusion.
The fact that I have opted for a combined goal bet and am not focusing on the actual outcome of the game has mainly to do with Liverpool’s current form.
Although LFC recently won their Premier League game against Aston Villa (2-0), they had lost six of their previous seven games.
It is therefore difficult to predict whether the Reds have overcome their crisis or whether a Madrid victory at Anfield seems more realistic. Either way, I expect goals – so I am very happy with my selection.
Liverpool – Real Madrid Prediction & Bets
But you can’t do without alternative tips. So I’m going to bring the “Double Chance X2” into play. After all, it’s not often that the DC on Real Madrid makes it past the 1.50 mark. And when you consider LFC’s problems in recent weeks, this bet definitely stands out.
In my opinion, “Real over 1.5 goals” is also worth a try – with a view to the Betano promo code. Before the game against Villa, Liverpool conceded three goals each against Brentford and Crystal Palace. So the Reds’ defense is not rock solid. This could come back to haunt them against Real, of course.
And since I expect the Madrid team to come out firing on all cylinders to shake up a struggling Liverpool side, I’m also considering betting on “Real Madrid to score first.” With odds of around 1.90, you really can’t complain.
What you need to consider when betting on Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
- Since the start of last season’s Champions League, no Liverpool player has made more key passes than Alexis Mac Allister (16). The Argentine averages 2.1 key passes per 90 minutes.
- After three matchdays, both Real Madrid (0.25 xGA) and Liverpool (0.27 xGA) are among the four best teams in the current Champions League season when it comes to expected goals conceded from set pieces.
- Kylian Mbappe is the most successful goalscorer in the current Champions League season with five goals – alongside Harry Kane of FC Bayern Munich. With an expected goals value of 4.94 xG, the Frenchman also leads this statistic. Hugo Ekitike (2.45 xG) is the next best player among those who will be on the pitch in the upcoming match.
- The last meeting between the two teams took place at Anfield Road during the previous Champions League season. At that time, the Reds went into the game as clear favorites. Goals from Alexis Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo sealed a dominant home win – Liverpool created six “big chances,” while Real only managed two.
Liverpool – Real Madrid: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model has dressed up for the top duel and designed its very own Liverpool Real Madrid AI prediction.
First, the digital brain presents the bet “Real Madrid to win” on a silver platter. Due to Liverpool’s unpredictability, I don’t feel entirely comfortable with odds of around 2.55, as already indicated. However, if I had to decide on a 1×2 bet, I would also go for the away win.
As a safety-first approach, the AI suggests “Over 2.5 goals” as a single tip. The odds of just under 1.50 at Interwetten Mobile are acceptable when you consider the offensive personnel of both teams. A classic 0-0 would be a minor sensation in light of this.
The AI won’t let us go without a result bet. “2:1 for Real Madrid” brings strong odds of around 10.75. If you want to take a full risk, you should know that the bookmakers are only offering lower odds for one other result. And that is 1:1 (at around 8.75).
The best odds for Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
Liverpool’s recent losing streak was briefly halted on matchday three with a 5-1 win in Frankfurt. But after several subsequent defeats and the upcoming clash with Real Madrid, there is likely to be a lot of interest in the odds for the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid game in the 1×2 market.
The Spaniards travel to Merseyside as slight favorites after being considered underdogs when the market opened.
Odds of 2.50 for an away win in the 1×2 market suggest that Liverpool could be underdogs at Anfield Road for the second time in a week. This was previously the case in the EFL Cup, when a heavily changed lineup was eliminated against Crystal Palace.
The Asian handicap for the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid match is currently 0.0. This line ensures that bets will be refunded in the event of a draw, regardless of whether you bet on Liverpool 0.0 or Real Madrid 0.0.
The last meeting between the two teams at Anfield Road took place in the previous Champions League season. At that time, Liverpool went into the game as clear favorites. Goals from Alexis Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo sealed a commanding home win – the Reds had six “big chances,” Real only two.
The Asian goal line for the upcoming match is set at over/under 3.25, which is also in line with the current average of 3.01 goals per game in the Champions League after three matchdays. In 55% of the games so far, more than 2.5 goals have been scored, and in 73% of the games, at least two goals have been scored.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid match analysis:
Real Madrid has started the Champions League season with a flawless record and is three points ahead of Liverpool going into the fourth matchday. Both teams are considered sure candidates for the knockout stages, but a defeat could seriously jeopardize Arne Slot’s ambitions.
Xabi Alonso demonstrated his tactical flexibility in the recent 2-1 win over Barcelona. He usually has Real play offensively and dominantly, but this time he had the team sit deep, let the Catalans have the ball, and relied on quick counterattacks—with success.
A similar approach could also bear fruit at Anfield Road.
Slot has spoken openly about Liverpool’s difficulties against deep-lying opponents. Frankfurt chose a different tactic in the Reds’ last Champions League game – and was punished for it.
Real, on the other hand, could remain compact and put pressure on the home side’s defense with the enormous pace of its attacking players. The Reds’ problems on the wings are well known, which is why it will be difficult to control players like Vinícius Jr. or Kylian Mbappe.
Nevertheless, Liverpool remain dangerous in attack. New signing Hugo Ekitike is the only one who has really impressed so far, but other players in Slot’s team are also capable of breaking down Real’s defense. Accordingly, the game is likely to offer numerous chances for both sides.
Liverpool form check
Liverpool performed outstandingly last season, winning the Premier League and only narrowly failing to reach the Champions League final against eventual winners PSG.
When Arne Slot invested heavily in the summer to further strengthen the offense, it was considered a certainty that the Reds would once again be among the dominant forces—but so far, that has not been the case.
Slot is having great difficulty balancing offensive power and defensive stability. Milos Kerkez has struggled to find his place in the team, while Jeremie Frimpong has been plagued by injury problems.
Last season, Liverpool’s fullbacks were among the top 10% in Europe in terms of progressive passes – Conor Bradley and Kerkez, who are likely to start again this season, are currently in the bottom 40%.
The lack of a clear build-up play is clearly noticeable and repeatedly costs the team control and punch.
In addition, Liverpool cannot find a way to counter teams that operate with long balls. Direct play has proven to be extremely effective against the reigning English champions.
Despite these problems, the Reds already have six points to their name after three games, thanks to victories over Atlético Madrid and Frankfurt. With an average of 2.67 goals per game in this competition, at least the offense remains a clear bright spot.
Real Madrid form check
Real Madrid has made an excellent start to the season, both domestically and in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso is acting boldly – he rarely plays Kylian Mbappe, Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo together in order to maintain balance in the team.
Despite the good results, there is talk of tension between Alonso and some of the more experienced players. The coach is demanding a higher workload from his stars – not everyone shares his assessment.
Nevertheless, Real remains one of the strongest teams in Europe and is among the favorites to win the title. Like Liverpool, Los Blancos have already scored eight goals in three Champions League games.
Real is peppered with big names, but Mbappe is undoubtedly the standout player. The Frenchman has already scored five goals in this competition – joint top scorer with Harry Kane. Kylian is likely to continue to flourish as the league season progresses.
