Bayern – PSG Tip Club World Cup, Quarter-Final on Saturday, 05.06.2025 at 18:00
In the Club World Cup in the United States, Bayern Munich seems to have its final opponent waiting in the quarterfinals. If the title odds are anything to go by, the Munich team will face the upcoming world champion on Saturday evening.
After their first triumph in the Champions League, the French team has once again proven its top form in recent days. For example, Atletico Madrid was rolled over 4-0 right at the start.
I therefore can’t avoid a Bayern PSG tip in favor of the official favorite. However, because I also expect the Munich challengers to play lively, I’m aiming for a Paris victory in combination with “BTS” for a pretty impressive odds.
I am well aware that my Bayern PSG prediction goes against several supposedly stable trends:
After all, FCB has not only won the last four direct duels, but has also not conceded a single goal in these matches.
Although no more than two goals were scored in any of those matches, I am convinced that the rematch will be a different story.
Since the two most accurate teams from the top five European leagues in the previous season are only moving forward, I am at least partially prepared for a joyful loss of control in Atlanta!
Bayern – PSG prediction & bets
To be honest, it always gives me a bit of a stomach ache to go against the German record champions when making a prediction for FC Bayern. However, looking at how things have gone over the last few weeks, I simply can’t see PSG losing this time.
However, my other Bayern PSG tips are entirely geared towards hedging my bets against the “danger” of a Munich victory, which is of course still present.
For the open-ended tip “Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals,” I’m getting odds of just under 1.70 in the very likely event of a successful outcome.
At odds of 2.37, I’m also prepared to bet on a Kane goal at any point in the game. For risk-taking bettors, the odds of 4.00 on Olise might also be interesting – after all, the Frenchman already has three tournament goals to his name.
What you need to keep in mind when betting on Bayern vs. PSG
- PSG and Bayern Munich lead the goal statistics per 90 minutes in Europe’s top five leagues this season, with 2.82 for Bayern and 2.62 for PSG. Both teams are currently among the top six teams in terms of expected goals (xG) in the Club World Cup.
- Bayern Munich has scored at least one goal in 29 of its 32 games in 2025. PSG has scored in 37 of its 39 games this calendar year, with only Liverpool and Botafogo preventing the team from finding the net.
- The predicted goal ratio is 3.74, the highest of any knockout game to date. When these two teams met in November 2024, 3.18 xG was recorded.
- This is the 15th competitive match between these two clubs. Bayern have won eight of them and PSG six. None of the 14 games ended in a draw. Bayern have won the last four encounters without conceding a goal.
- Harry Kane scored twice in FC Bayern Munich’s 4-2 win over Flamengo to take his tally for the season to 41 goals. With an average of 0.62 goals per 90 minutes in the last 12 months, Kane is among the top 13% of players in Europe’s top five leagues.
Bayern – PSG: Odds analysis
This is the first time since May 2023/2024 against Real Madrid that Bayern Munich has gone into a game as the underdog. That game ended 2-1 for the eventual winners from Spain. That was 57 competitive games ago. As clear favorites, FCB won 1-0 against PSG in Munich in November in the Champions League.
Since Munich also won the previous three games against PSG without conceding a goal, our in-house AI model has now identified value in betting on the German record champions.
As a low-risk Bayern PSG AI tip, the double chance that Bayern will not lose this game in regular time is being touted. At Betano Sportsbook, this would currently be good for odds of 1.65.
Given the offensive strength of both teams, goal bets are interesting. Unsurprisingly, “Both teams to score” doesn’t even reach the magic 1.5 mark.
The artificial intelligence is therefore switching to an over bet. The recommendation to go for at least four total goals here is rewarded by the best bookmakers with a payout of 2.4 times the stake if successful.
Only one FC Bayern game in this tournament has remained below the 2.5-goal mark. That was a much-changed Bayern team that lost 0-1 to Benfica. Our internal data model now predicts an expected goal tally of 3.74 xG.
Such strong figures are certainly reflected in the Bayern PSG prediction that FCB will score in both halves. If the German champions do indeed strike in both halves, confident bettors can thank our AI for a strong odds of 3.30!
The best odds for Bayern vs. PSG
As already mentioned, FC Bayern are going into a game as clear underdogs for the first time in over a year – so statisticians might want to mark July 5 in their calendars.
This also applies to Bayern PSG bettors, who may well be successful in placing a bet on the underdog. After all, a Bayern victory like this is good for odds of over 3.00!
If Munich manages to make it to extra time, this will be rewarded by both mainstream and tax-free betting providers with odds of around 3.50.
Finally, I have noticed a slight upward trend for a PSG victory in the last few hours. Currently, a victory for the French side would earn you around 2.25 times your stake!
Bayern vs. PSG match analysis:
After finally achieving their goal and winning the Champions League for the first time, PSG have now rightly earned themselves the role of favorites in the Club World Cup. However, that does not mean that the road to the next trophy will be easy.
As is well known, the German champions secured another Bundesliga title, their 34th in total. However, it seems as if Vincent Kompany’s team is still trying to find its feet. Despite their lethal offense, they often struggle against top teams.
With both teams geared towards a consistent offense, it could be a high-scoring game. Bayern are level with City at the top of the scoring charts (4.0), while Les Parisiens (2.5) are in sixth place.
Control in midfield and the distances between players during transitions will be the deciding factors. And this is precisely where the newly crowned European champions currently have the edge.
PSG’s double midfield will lure Bayern forward, bait them – and then Dembele and Kvara will exploit the gaps on the flanks. With a possession rate of 72.0%, the best in this competition, it is understandable why Paris are slight favourites.
Nevertheless, Bayern will be anything but fearful and hopeless in this match. They have already proven their quality in the Club World Cup and are among the top three in relevant statistics such as goals per game (4.0), expected goals (10.0 xG), shots on goal per game, and big chances.
The question is whether they can overcome the best defense in the tournament so far. Les Rouge-et-Bleu have conceded only 0.3 xGA and kept three clean sheets. They conceded only one goal against Botafogo, when they failed to score themselves for the only time in the second round of the group stage.
FC Bayern form check
Even if this may no longer be the iron FC Bayern of the Flick era, the Munich team is still one of the most dangerous offensive machines in the world.
Under Vincent Kompany, they have taken a step towards unpredictability. Sometimes inspiring, sometimes disjointed, but always capable of deciding a game.
The numbers don’t lie. Bayern are level with City and share first place in terms of goals per game (4.0). They are also second in relevant metrics such as xG, shots on goal, big chances, touches in the opponent’s penalty area, etc.
But the most important thing is that Harry Kane looks like a man playing with a clear goal in mind. In addition to his 38 goals this season, he has scored three times and provided one assist in this competition.
However, Michael Olise is slowly taking more control. He has also scored three goals in the Club World Cup, and some of his other statistics are impressive.
While he ranks in the 96th percentile for expected goals (2.42 xGOT), it is his playmaking qualities that set him apart.
He currently leads the assists table, but shares first place with 13 other players. He tops the list because he has the most expected assists (1.3 xA).
Olise and Kane will be key to victory over the European champions. But despite their success so far, it will obviously be no easy task to secure a fifth consecutive win against the French side.
Paris SG form check
There’s no denying it: PSG is no longer the soft-boiled, star-studded sleeping giant it once was. Luis Enrique’s team plays with clarity and gives football fans what they want to see.
A fluid, attacking style with young stars at the forefront has earned them the European crown. Their positioning has stifled opponents left and right, and they don’t even need many clear chances to defeat them. That kind of efficiency wins tournaments!
Apart from the surprise defeat against Botafogo, the Parisians had no problems in their games. The 4-0 opener against Atlético Madrid was a clear sign of their intention to see it through to the end.
The game against Inter Miami showed their quality best. Although the Americans were clear underdogs, many thought that the Herons would at least score a goal. However, their key players Messi and Suarez hardly had a chance to do so, as PSG regularly took the ball away from them in the attacking third.
Messi had only three touches in the opponent’s penalty area, Suarez only two. Despite all their efforts, Miami only managed 0.43 xG, compared to PSG’s 2.91 xG. This best demonstrates the Parisian side’s ability to control the game and leave nothing to chance.
My prediction: PSG win & both teams score
