Palmeiras – Chelsea Tip Club World Cup, Quarter-Final on Saturday, 05.06.2025 at 03:00
On their intended path to the final, the reigning Conference League winners will only face South American and Asian representatives.
My Palmeiras Chelsea tip must first clarify whether the team from the motherland of soccer is even still in contention for further appearances in the United States.
Those familiar with the situation may not necessarily be impressed by the bookmakers’ predictions that the Blues will make it to the semi-finals.
After all, the bookies’ confidence has recently been severely disappointed by big names such as Inter Milan and Manchester City, even in tests that were expected to be significantly easier.
Chelsea also got a taste of the special magic of Brazilian football in their surprise preliminary round defeat to Flamengo.
With Palmeiras still completely unbeaten, I am therefore not expecting an irresistible march to victory in my Palmeiras Chelsea prediction!
Palmeiras – Chelsea prediction & bets
My main Palmeiras Chelsea tip already suggests that I am reluctant to name a clear favorite here – which leads me to the aforementioned goal bet.
Those of you who also want to bet on a low-scoring first half, but are willing to take a slightly higher risk, can get odds of 2.60 for a goalless draw after 45 minutes.
If you force me to pick a favorite with kind words, I will go with the bookmakers’ opinion with my third bet.
For the bet that Chelsea FC will ultimately reach the next round with a win after 90 minutes, extra time or penalties, I’ll take a just about acceptable odds of around 1.53!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Palmeiras vs. Chelsea
- Palmeiras has had the third-most shots on goal in the Club World Cup (69), but has only scored five times. Only 26% of Verdão’s shots have been on target, with only three other teams having a lower percentage.
- Chelsea FC has scored in 15 of its last 16 games, with the exception of a 2-0 defeat at Newcastle in May. The Blues took the lead in 11 of those games, including all four Club World Cup matches.
- In seven of Palmeiras’ last ten competitive games, there have been no goals from either side. An average of just 2.3 goals were scored in those games.
- Chelsea defeated Palmeiras 2-1 after extra time in the final of the 2022 Club World Cup. The Brazilians also suffered defeat against another English club when they lost 1-0 to Manchester United in the 1999 Intercontinental Cup final.
- Pedro Neto is Chelsea’s top scorer in the Club World Cup with three goals from seven attempts. He also has an average match rating of 8.27, the second highest in the competition.
Palmeiras – Chelsea: odds analysis
Based on the Brazilians’ apparent reluctance to attack at the start of the game, I’m speculating that there will be more goals after the break.
While Palmeiras scored all of its five tournament goals after the 46th minute, Chelsea went into the break with a clean sheet in all four of its games.
Unsurprisingly, our in-house artificial intelligence is also enthusiastic about this trend. The low-risk Palmeiras Chelsea AI tip that the South Americans will fail to score in the first half is only good for a generous 1.4 in the Oddset app.
The fact that European clubs have tended to underperform at the World Cup so far is at least partly due to Chelsea FC, who have won only two of their four matches in regular time.
According to the AI, it could therefore be worthwhile for Palmeiras to put up a fierce fight. The double chance 1X at odds of 1.80 gives the Brazilians a minimum target of reaching extra time again.
Otherwise, “Under 2.5 goals” is the favorite on the AI market and is preferred over “Over.” “Both teams to score” has been correct in seven of Palmeiras’ last ten competitive games, with an average of 2.3 goals scored.
This selection has also won in six of Chelsea’s last ten games in all competitions, making this tip – for example, at popular tax-free bookmakers – a sure bet at odds of 1.70 for a small profit in the quarter-finals!
The best odds for Palmeiras vs. Chelsea
If you consider the European teams to be the strongest in the Club World Cup, Chelsea FC is currently the big fish in the pond on its side of the tournament bracket – and would not face another team from the UEFA zone until the final.
The chances of such a march through the tournament seem anything but slim; at least in the quarterfinals against Palmeiras, the Londoners are clear favorites with odds just above the 2.00 mark.
However, should the match go into extra time again, as it did in the respective round of 16 matches between Chelsea and Palmeiras, a draw after 90 minutes would return around 3.4 times the stake.
With odds of 3.8, Palmeiras’ victory is only slightly higher: So once again, anything is possible for the Brazilians on Saturday night!
Palmeiras vs. Chelsea match analysis:
Palmeiras and Chelsea are set for an exciting clash on Saturday after both teams successfully navigated their challenging round of 16 matches.
Verdão prevailed against Brazilian rivals Botafogo thanks to a decisive goal in the 100th minute by substitute Paulinho, underlining the skillful rotation of coach Abel Ferreira.
Despite his heroics, Paulinho is also expected to start the quarterfinal on the bench due to a leg injury that will require surgery after the tournament.
Palmeiras will also be without suspended defenders Joaquin Piquerez from Uruguay and Gustavo Gomez, while Estevao, who is set to join Chelsea, is available again.
The Brazilians have relied on their robust defense throughout the competition, conceding only two shots on goal in extra time against Botafogo and effectively controlling the pace of the games.
Meanwhile, Chelsea prevailed 4-1 against Benfica in a hard-fought game that went into extra time. Goals from Christopher Nkunku, Pedro Neto, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall secured the victory.
Reece James also scored in regular time. The Blues will now be able to call on striker Nicolas Jackson again after he served his suspension, but Moises Caicedo is out against Palmeiras for the same reason.
Both teams have shown resilience and strength, setting the stage for an exciting quarter-final. Palmeiras has a slight advantage here, as it has already played its round of 16 match in Philadelphia and can benefit from the support of its fans.
Chelsea, who already defeated the Brazilians in the final of the 2021 Intercontinental Cup, are under pressure as they are considered the second favorites to win the title behind PSG with a 25.47% chance of winning according to our internal prediction model.
FC Palmeiras form check
Palmeiras is known for its defensive style of play under coach Abel Ferreira and focuses on stifling the opponent before they can find their rhythm. This strategy can sometimes frustrate the fans, but it has proven to be effective.
The promising start to the tournament with a draw against Porto lost some of its shine after the Portuguese side’s subsequent performances. There was a defeat against Inter Miami and a wild 4-4 draw against Al Ahly.
Nevertheless, Palmeiras’ preference for disciplined defense and quick counterattacks remains the key to success, both in the Club World Cup and in the Brazilian Serie A.
Verdaõ has a high shot ratio in the tournament with 69 shots, but only five of those found the back of the net. Accuracy is a concern, with only 26% of shots on target. Only four other teams have a lower percentage.
In seven of Palmeiras’ last ten competitive games, only one team has scored, with an average of just 2.3 goals per game.
Palmeiras may be weakened and tired at the back, but it is unlikely that the team will change its style of play in a game of this magnitude.
FC Chelsea form check
The Blues have shown a preference for possession throughout the tournament so far and have regularly dictated the pace of the game as the competition has progressed. They also seem to be in good form in front of goal.
Chelsea have scored in 15 of their last 16 games, the only exception being the 2-0 defeat at Newcastle. It is also impressive that the English side scored the first goal in 11 of those games, including all four games in the Club World Cup.
Pedro Neto is Chelsea’s top scorer in the current tournament with three goals from seven attempts, earning him an impressive average rating of 8.27, the second-best rating in the entire team.
Although they have not always been able to take their chances early, as was evident in the game against Benfica, Enzo Maresca’s men have shown resilience and control, keeping their opponents at bay and maintaining their dominance throughout the games.
However, with Moises Caicedo set to miss the quarter-final against Palmeiras, the Conference League winners could face a tougher challenge in Philadelphia.
My prediction: More goals in the second half
