Premier League, Saturday, 04.05.2024
Only two players (Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer) have delighted the fans with a goal more often this season than Alexander Isak (19 goals).
The attacker is an excellent finisher and has scored nine goals in the last eight matchdays – eight of them at home.
Newcastle are away from home this weekend, however, and just like their top scorer, the Magpies are struggling away from home. I therefore play my Burnley Newcastle betting tip on “Under 3.5 goals” in the game and use my Happybet betting bonus for the odds of 1.70.
Vincent Kompany and his team have only lost one of their last eight Premier League games. However, “the Clarets” have only won two games.
For the home game against Newcastle United, Burnley are being offered odds of up to 3.50 by the various sports betting providers.
The hosts have escaped defeat in their last three home games. On matchday 36, that streak could well be extended to a fourth encounter.
The Magpies have picked up just 26 percent of their points away from home and have lost eight of their last eleven visits. Visiting coach Eddie Howe should therefore have few problems with odds of up to 2.00.
Newcastle are playing phenomenal attacking soccer this season and have already scored 74 goals. Top striker Alexander Isak is responsible for 19 goals.
Away from home, however, the Toons’ attack is worth a maximum of half that and has scored just 35 percent of its goals this season.
Eddie Howe has repeatedly experienced difficult phases this season. The defense made the headlines all too often and was plagued by injuries for long stretches.
Recently, a positive trend has emerged in the seventh-placed team’s defense. Only four goals conceded in the previous five matchdays is a pleasing development for all Magpies supporters
Burnley are struggling to hold their own against the competition this season. 38.0 expected goals is the second lowest figure in the league (19th).
However, the Clarets’ defense has also caught up. Kompany’s charges have only conceded more than one goal in one of their last five games.
However, four of these five encounters were less entertaining and produced a total of “under 2.5 goals” in the game
Burnley have been unbeaten at home for three matchdays, but this has not changed the lowest rate of points at home (42 percent).
The Bet365 offer code is therefore best used in a “double chance”, which you ideally pack into a match combination.
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in two of their last four league games. Eddie Howe’s strengthened backline could be reason enough to play odds of 2.62 for “Under 2.5 goals” at Sunmaker.
The Magpies’ weak away offense has also been evident in recent visiting appearances. Only one of the last four away games yielded “Over 1.5 goals” for the Toons. In the Betway app you can play for “Newcastle Under 1.5 goals” at strong odds of 2.10.
I have given my Burnley Newcastle tip a buffer with “Under 3.5 goals” to take into account the increasing strength of form of the visitors. After all, the Toons have won three of their last four league games
One of the things I’m worried about is the home side’s poor standards. No other Premier League team has scored four goals from a resting ball.
In addition, only the two fellow promoted teams, Sheffield United and Luton Town, scored fewer expected goals than Burnley (27.61 xG).
Burnley have stabilized somewhat in recent weeks, losing just one of their eight league games. That could help them challenge the Magpies, who are not too strong away from home.
Newcastle are much less dangerous away from home than at home, while Burnley cannot create a strong offense regardless of where they play.
My Burnley Newcastle betting tip is therefore: There will be less than 3.5 goals scored
