SC Freiburg – 1. FC Heidenheim betting tip
He will stand in front of the curve one last time, wave to the fans one last time and, he hopes, enjoy three points at home one last time. In Freiburg, not only the sky will be weeping on Saturday, but also one or two people in the Europa-Park stadium.
SC coach Christian Streich will be bidding farewell, so there should be no shortage of emotions. There’s also soccer being played in our 1st Bundesliga tips, with Sportclub aiming to qualify for Europe.
FC Heidenheim are an unpleasant opponent who have adopted the following tactics: Hardly ever win, even rarer to lose! The promoted team, which has already retained its place in the league, could even catch Freiburg!
A derby to say farewell to Streich, it could be a very cheesy afternoon in the Black Forest. Our bookmakers see the home side ahead with average odds of 1.75 to 4.25, despite the fact that their home form has been at the lower limit for months.
I will now analyze exactly what this is all about in my Freiburg Heidenheim betting tip. I’ll also tell you why I don’t think anyone will be left without a point and why the relatively high risk of the draw bet is worth it this time
The betting providers’ forecast?
A home win in 2024? That’s very slim! Freiburg are not at all satisfied with their second half of the season, so I’m all the more surprised that the odds at our top bookmakers are only 1.75 on average.
Heidenheim are now winning very rarely, but there are also hardly any defeats. Should there be another three away points on Saturday, you would be able to pick up odds of 4.25 for this bet.
Draw? That’s what 1. FC Heidenheim loves! Nine of the last 16 games have been draws and, fittingly, Freiburg have already shared the points six times at home. A draw on Saturday too? That would give you average odds of 3.90.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Heidenheim
We know Christian Streich as a coach who never made a secret of his tears and other emotions, who never tried to hide disappointment, sadness or great joy.
He worked at SC Freiburg for many years and achieved cult status there and beyond. Now it’s over, on Saturday the sports club will play its last Bundesliga match under his direction in its own stadium.
The aim: to win in order to make it to Europe once again. Seventh place would be enough and the curious thing is that Freiburg are in a much weaker position than in recent years
41 points? That’s how many some need to stay in the league! Not everyone in Breisgau is really satisfied. Eleven of the 32 games have only been won, plus eight draws and 13 defeats.
1:1 against Mainz, 1:2 against Wolfsburg and 0:0 against Cologne? The last three games have been really disappointing, because Freiburg actually have the right to score three points against relegation candidates.
Three wins from the last 14 games is not the best result. Bochum, Gladbach and Darmstadt? One of these teams has already been relegated, the other two still need the last few points in the fight to stay in the league
Analysis of odds
It’s obvious that I’m opting for a draw in the 1×2 bets. As SCF have only finished one home game in 2024 without conceding a goal, I add the “Both teams to score” and arrive at odds of 4.60.
Freiburg have been struggling defensively for some time, conceding three goals in the first leg against Heidenheim. As FCH have not conceded a single goal away from home since the beginning of October, I think the bet “Over 2.5 goals” is appropriate (odds: 1.62).
How will the match end? A result bet may be a very high risk, but it also offers a great chance of winning. For me, only the 2:2 comes into question here, for which you can get 13.0
Where is Freiburg’s home strength hidden?
And something else strikes me: The three Freiburg victories mentioned above were won away from home. What about Freiburg’s well-known home strength? Quite simply, it’s unfortunately no longer there.
Only one of the last nine matches at home has been won, and there hasn’t been a three-pointer since the 3-2 win against Hoffenheim in January. They have already scored 29 times at home, and just before Christmas was the last time their supporters saw a game without conceding a goal.
No, SC Freiburg are really no longer strong at home. At the same time, a draw has already been collected six times, whether 0:0, 1:1, 2:2 or 3:3, both rather dreary and spectacular performances are possible here
Heidenheim loves a draw
In the first half of the season, the game against Heidenheim was more in the second category. They lost 2:3 and this will be only the fourth head-to-head encounter (the two teams met in League 2 in 2015/16, with Freiburg winning both games).
From the visitors’ point of view, the result of the derby is no longer all that important in sporting terms. Or does it? It sounds strange, but although the club was only mathematically assured of relegation a few days ago, there is still a very small chance of reaching Europe!
Seventh-placed Freiburg have 41 points, while Heidenheim have 38. Two teams are still in between, Hoffenheim and Augsburg are also hoping for international business
Apropos Augsburg, FCA open the 33rd matchday on Friday against VfB Stuttgart.
So FCH know that Europe is probably not in the cards after all, but before this season started, many didn’t even believe the team could stay in the league. They did, and ahead of schedule too.
Nine wins may sound relatively slim, but the Swabians always knew what was required of them. The last few months have been a little strange, as somehow they have neither won often nor lost regularly
Admittedly, three wins from the last 16 games sounds anything but promising. But it makes all the better reading that only four of the last 18 have been lost.
1:2 against Leipzig, Frankfurt and Leverkusen, plus a 0:1 against Augsburg? These four defeats didn’t even have to be! The Swabians are actually considered to be strong at home, but the draw-lovers can now also do it away from home.
Defeats away from home? One in the last nine games! Six times the points were shared away from home, exactly the same number I could see at SC Freiburg in their own stadium.
There is a serious weakness in attack. They have only failed to score five times in the entire season, but now Tim Kleindienst, their most important striker, is suspended!
Incidentally, Kiliann Sildillia will not be able to play for Freiburg as he is also suspended. Merlin Röhl is also unable to play due to a torn muscle fiber
My Freiburg Heidenheim tip:
Freiburg or Heidenheim, who will win the Baden-Swabian derby? There are only three points between the two teams in the table, which shows that Sportclub are not really satisfied.
They are hardly winning any more, and with just one home win in 2024, they are anything but positive. However, Sportclub have already drawn six times at home. Something that can be applied almost 1:1 to Heidenheim.
The visitors have hardly lost for months, but victories are also in short supply. Sure, after all, points are shared incredibly often. All in all, I can’t defend myself against the relatively high risk here and I’m betting:
Freiburg and Heidenheim draw
