Bundesliga matchday 16, Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 15:30
For Kiel’s hopes of staying in the Bundesliga, they need another performance of the kind they produced against FC Augsburg last time out (5-1 win).
Freiburg were on the unpleasant side of a 5-1 scoreline in their last outing, when they went down by four goals to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
SCF will now be out to make amends at the start of the new calendar year and will be looking to build on their typical home strength, which is proven with 2.29 points per Bundesliga home game.
According to my Freiburg Kiel betting tip, the Breisgau team will need at least two goals to win, as I think both teams will score in any case.
A suitable offer can be found at Betano with odds of 1.82 for “Both teams to score”.
The betting providers’ forecast?
The Storks are still waiting for their first Bundesliga away win in the club’s history after 15 match days. Normally, this should not be the case against a team as strong at home as SC Freiburg.
This line of thought is clearly reflected in the odds of up to 7.75 for KSV’s third win of the season.
Freiburg have recently won two Bundesliga home games in a row, even overcoming tricky challenges against Gladbach (3:1) and Wolfsburg (3:2).
In total, the Breisgau team have won five of their seven matches at Europa-Park-Stadion, so the low odds of around 1.45 shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to anyone.
KI prediction Freiburg vs Kiel: ChatGPT
The artificial intelligence predictions don’t match my ideas for a Freiburg Kiel betting tip at all, which is why my excitement for the upcoming matchday is increasing even more. Contrary to my analysis, Chat-GPT gives a bet on “Both teams score: No” with a low risk. Well, the odds of 1.90 at Bwin suggest otherwise.
I also don’t think much of the subsequent AI prediction that throws “Freiburg will win to zero” into the draw. If you are registered with ODDSET, you can play this bet there at odds of 2.37. However, I don’t really warm to this idea. After all, Kiel have scored in every away Bundesliga game so far.
A high-risk bet that definitely deserves its name is the following option: Half-time/final score: Draw/Freiburg. In my imagination, goals could have already been scored by the break, which could jeopardize the result at half-time in particular.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Kiel
Freiburg have always woken somewhat sleepily from hibernation in previous seasons. Most recently, SCF went winless three times in a row at the start of the year (2U, 1N).
What Julian Schuster absolutely has to reduce is the number of goals conceded. 24 goals conceded after 15 matchdays is too many and has already cost the home side several points.
The basic framework and the right system for a successful defense actually seem to be in place. This is indicated by the mere 18.33 xGA.
The Breisgauers have found it particularly difficult once their opponents have found a good rhythm. Freiburg have already conceded at least three goals in four matches.
Kiel may only be 17th in the table, but they put five stamps on Augsburg’s ticket home on the last matchday and showed their attacking prowess.
The level of defending shown by the Storks so far has of course been far too low. 38 goals conceded represent the Bundesliga’s shooting gallery and must not be doubled by the end of the season, otherwise relegation will be difficult to avoid.
To prevent this impending scenario, the KSV management took action in the winter and signed David Zec, a dream candidate for the central defense.
Rating Analysis
I personally think the odds for a three-goal win for the home side are too low, even if Freiburg statistically sends one of the strongest Bundesliga home teams onto the pitch.
SCF have only won two of their previous eight matches in the German top flight and have not exuded the strength that was expected of Julian Schuster’s team at the start of the season.
In my Freiburg Kiel betting tip, I’m definitely planning on more than two goals and can only nod approvingly at odds of 2.32 for “Over 3.5 goals in the match”. This is available to you after registering with Bet365.
So far, Kiel are the only Bundesliga team to have conceded at least two goals in every away game, but have also scored at least once in every away appearance.
Freiburg vs Kiel odds: The vest has to go in the washing machine
Among all Bundesliga teams this season, there are only two teams that have conceded at least one goal in 14 out of 15 league matches: Bochum and Kiel.
However, Freiburg did not take out a subscription for conceding white vests before the season. The Breisgauers have also not managed more than four clean sheets so far.
Instead, the hosts have not conceded a goal in any of their last five Bundesliga games. Instead, invitations were handed out to their rivals, which Leverkusen (1:5), Wolfsburg (3:2) and Dortmund (0:4) all accepted with “over 1.5 goals”.
The Storks can look back on three Bundesliga away games with at least two goals of their own. The Bundesliga newcomers would certainly not be complaining about another game with two or more goals.
There are certainly no complaints about Betano’s new customer bonus either. After all, the €20 free bet offers newly registered fans a risk-free bet of €20.
This darn first half
Neither Freiburg nor Kiel have really warmed to the 45 minutes before the break so far this season.
The Breisgauers had scored just seven meagre goals by the break – only FC St. Pauli (5) had bettered them.
Kiel, on the other hand, were unable to close down their own penalty area until half-time and conceded the most goals in the first half (24).
Freiburg, on the other hand, collapsed a few times after the break. They conceded four goals in the second half against Leverkusen (1:5), two against Wolfsburg (3:2) and two against Dortmund (0:4).
I’m definitely curious to see how the two teams will perform in their first game after the admittedly short winter break.
What looked like an almost impossible task just a few weeks ago is no longer completely out of the question after the 5:1 win against Augsburg at the end of the season.
Kiel (8 points) are now just two points off Heidenheim and the relegation places (10 points), and six points off TSG (14) and St. Pauli (14) ahead of them.
Freiburg are aiming to go one better in the new year, if possible even up to the European places.
SCF are currently in ninth place with 24 points. However, the gap to fourth place in the table is no more than three points.
My Freiburg Kiel tip:
Kiel can get some action going in offense and test an SCF defense that has not always looked secure recently.
At the same time, the newly promoted team will not have suddenly solved its extremely large construction sites in defense with a new addition.
For my Freiburg Kiel betting tip, I’m therefore opting for “Both teams to score” and I’m looking forward to an entertaining pairing:
My tip: Both teams to score
