Bundesliga Matchday 16, Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 15:30
This weekend, the Bundesliga resumes after a short winter break. One of the matches will be the crisis duel between Heidenheim and Union Berlin. The hosts have not picked up a single point from their last six games.
The capital side have picked up just one point from their last five games with a draw against Bochum and are therefore starting the second half of the season with a new head coach. Steffen Baumgart has taken over the job.
I expect a very tough battle for the three points at the start of the year. In my Heidenheim Union Berlin betting tip, I’m taking the goal for both teams from LeoVegas, at strong odds of over 1.80!
It looks bleak for Heidenheim. Frank Schmidt is experiencing his first difficult time in the Bundesliga with the team he has coached since 2007. Last year’s promoted team has only picked up one point from its last ten league games and was also eliminated from the cup.
At least they managed to survive the winter in the Conference League after their three wins at the start, but they only managed one point in the last three matches in this competition as well.
The oddsmakers’ forecast
There are no clear favourites in this game, which doesn’t surprise me to be honest. I was actually expecting almost identical odds for both teams to win, but Union are slightly ahead as the visitors at 2.40.
The success of the hosts is the second most likely outcome with 3.20, followed by the draw bet, which goes into the betting slip basket at 3.40 at LeoVegas.
However, committing to an exit bet after the break with two weakening teams is too hot for me. Will the AI agree with me?
KI prediction Heidenheim vs. Union Berlin: ChatGPT
Not at all! She even sees only a low risk with the bet selection “Double chance X2”. If I had to make a decision, I would only choose a variant that covers two outcomes.
When making the decision, ChatGPT refers to Berlin’s “solid defense”. In fact, only Bayern have conceded fewer goals, which made the four goals they conceded against Werder at the end of the season all the more surprising.
The middle risk option is for Union to score at least two goals. This option is definitely too risky for me. In any case, the bookmakers expect a fairly low-scoring game, so I get almost double the odds for both teams to score.
On the other hand, the high-risk variant is directed against Union, here ChatGPT turns around and finds the home win odds attractive in the higher odds region.
“Even though Union Berlin is considered the favorite, Heidenheim has shown in the past that they are capable of surprising stronger opponents at their home ground,” explains the artificial intelligence.
That definitely applies to the last few seasons, but this year no team has scored fewer home points than Heidenheim – just four. Therefore, I am also rather skeptical about this option.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs. Union Berlin
In total, Heidenheim has only won and lost eleven games, tied for the most defeats in the Bundesliga. Union have also only taken four three-pointers, but have bagged significantly more draws.
However, the offense remains a problem: after St. Pauli and Bochum, no team has pushed fewer balls over the line than Union. 14 goals have been scored so far in this high-scoring division
There can be no question of a lack of efficiency, as the expected goals value is also weak, with only the Kiezkickers undercutting 15.8.
Heidenheim still have 18 goals and a value of 20.5, but have scored the second-fewest shots after Kiel.
At the same time, the club from Baden-Württemberg is one of the three weakest teams in terms of the number of shots allowed on goal. Union, on the other hand, are among the top three in this discipline after Bayern and Leverkusen.
Rating Analysis
The offensive values are ultimately not a feast for the eyes for either Heidenheim or Berlin. However, statistics are not everything. The starting position ahead of this match is clear, with the hosts in particular aiming for three points.
Three points are a must against a team that is also struggling and is not one of the top teams in the league. The gap to safety is already four points.
Union also have their sights set on three points, but can clearly live better with a draw to keep their distance from the relegation zone.
The bookmakers are predicting a lower-scoring game in any case. For more than 1.5 goals, the Merkur Bets app already offers odds of 1.35, which I know from some La Liga or Serie A matches. Accordingly, we get a whopping 2.15 for at least three goals
Heidenheim vs Union Berlin odds: Baumgart still without a clean sheet against Heidenheim
Will Baumgart be able to help Union out of their form crisis? After a strong spell in Paderborn and a good start in Cologne, he was ultimately partly responsible for the Geißböcke’s relegation and missed out on promotion with HSV last season.
This season, Hamburg showed more in offense under his leadership, but the negligence in defense returned. Due to the lack of consistency, he was eventually let go.
I’m curious to see what he can do with the Irons, especially if he manages to breathe more life into the attack.
Baumgart’s record against Frank Schmidt speaks in favor of the double chance X2 suggested by the AI, although it is quite low. He has yet to lose against the Heidenheim side, winning two of the four games.
Are the Reds fit to the point?
Hamburg have left Baumgart as the best offense in the second division, definitely an encouragement for the Unioners, who not only want more goals at the Böllenfalltor.
So far, the new coach has been the only new signing for the Irons this winter. While some have snapped up an ex-coach from League Two, Heidenheim have snapped up a second division player – namely Karlsruhe’s Budu Zivzivadze.
A major weakening for the runners-up in League 2 and a clear strengthening for FCH 1? That remains to be seen. In League Two, the center forward scored twelve times in 17 games and set up three more goals.
In the cup, he contributed a further four scoring points. In addition, Schmidt’s team has once again made use of its southern German neighbors FC Bayern. In addition to Paul Wanner, Frans Krätzig will also kick for Heidenheim on loan in the future.
Speaking of personnel, Marvin Pieringer is suspended on Saturday, so it is quite possible that we will see Zivzivadze directly on the pitch. Julian Niehues and Denis Thomalla are also out through injury.
Union are not without injury worries either. Andrej Ilcic, Woo-yeong Jeong and Frederik Rönnow are all sidelined, as is captain Rani Khedira, who is suspended.
Last season, Heidenheim won 1-0 at home in the first head-to-head Bundesliga encounter in history, and we saw a varied 2-2 draw in the reunion.
We saw the most games between the teams in League Two. The balance here is slightly in Heidenheim’s favor with seven wins to four, with the points shared three times.
My Heidenheim Union Berlin tip:
First outing for Baumgart on Saturday and I think it’s going to be a heated one! There’s a lot at stake for both teams, especially the hosts need a three-pointer to close the gap to the safety zone.
However, Heidenheim have lost six league games in a row, are lacking the defensive stability of the previous season and are no longer scoring as eagerly following the departures of numerous offensive key players such as Tim Kleindienst, Eren Dinkci and Jan-Niklas Beste.
As a result, the club reacted on the transfer market. New coach at one club, new striker at the other! I expect a real thriller between the stumbling teams and a match at eye level in which both teams will score.
My Heidenheim Union Berlin prediction: Both teams will score
