The “Old Lady” is not just ailing, she is seriously ailing. Some would even say it has long been a coma patient. Hertha are threatened with relegation to the 3rd division in 2025!
After 25 match days, the Berliners are 14th in the table and right in the middle of the relegation zone. The lead to a relegation place is only three points at this point.
If this continues, a sporting and financial horror scenario looms. Relegation could jeopardize the existence of the capital city club…
Hertha relegation prediction: This is why they will fall
“We lacked all the basic virtues.” A sentence said by Hertha star Fabian Reese after the embarrassing 4-0 defeat at SV Elversberg somehow fits the Berliners’ entire season.
The market value of the team is 53.23 million euros, making the Hertha BSC squad the second most valuable after that of 1. FC Köln in this second division season. However, while the cathedral city side are playing for promotion to the Bundesliga, Berlin are fighting to stay in the second division.
It can therefore not be down to the fundamental quality of the team if Hertha are threatened with relegation in 2025. It’s more likely to be down to the attitude of the (too) well-paid professionals.
The problem that Hertha now face is that the fight to stay in the league requires precisely those basic virtues that have been lacking in many games this season. And now, all of a sudden, they’re supposed to show up…
With the change of coach from Cristian Fiel to Stefan Leitl, the Berlin management have already pulled the “change of coach” joker. He is now supposed to prevent Hertha BSC from being relegated. The first step was not successful – they went down 0:4 at the “village club” Elversberg.
The 0:4 against Elversberg was the highest second division defeat in 45 years. With 26 points from 24 games, the Blue & Whites are worse in the second division than they were last in 1985/86.
After 25 match days, Hertha have 13 defeats – meaning that they have lost more than half of all league games at this point. Only 7 of these 25 games have been won…
The only thing that somehow speaks in favor of the Berliners in the Hertha relegation prediction is the fact that the team should be significantly better on paper than all their rivals in the basement of the table.
The sporting quality with Fabian Reese, Michael Cuisance and many talents would therefore be there. But can promising youngsters such as Linus Gechter, Ibrahim Maza, Pascal Klemens and Marton Dardai withstand the enormous pressure that is now building up in view of the threatening situation?
This is another reason why the fear of Hertha being relegated in 2025 is spreading. And thus also of a deep fall into insignificance – with all possible consequences.
What happens if Hertha BSC are relegated in 2025?
What actually happens if Hertha BSC cannot prevent relegation from Bundesliga 2? A question that not only Berlin fans are asking themselves, but also many in soccer Germany.
What will happen in Berlin from the 2025/26 season onwards? Where will Hertha play after relegation in 2025?
Normally, Hertha BSC would continue in the 3rd division in the event of relegation – either directly or in the relegation play-off. However, there is a big “but”! If the Berliners do not receive a license for the 3rd division, the question is whether the club will continue to exist at all. Or will the “new start” then be in the Regionalliga?
The problem is the financial situation at the capital city club. The player budget for this season is 30 million euros. Even if Hertha are not relegated in 2025 and somehow manage to stay in the Bundesliga 2, players will have to be sold. Transfer surpluses in the double-digit millions are needed.
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However, should the worst-case scenario with Hertha BSC (@herthabsc)
case scenario with Hertha being relegated in 2025 actually materializes, the club can NOT count on income from transfer revenue. The player contracts are only valid for the first and second Bundesliga and do not include an option for the 3rd division. This means that all players are free if Hertha are relegated.
What’s more, Hertha will have to manage without investor money for the first time since 2014. After KKR & Co. (invested €61.2 million in 2014), Lars Windhorst (invested an incredible €374 million from fall 2019) and most recently 777 (invested €75 million from March 2023), there is no new investor or strategic partner in sight.
Relegation would shake the club, which narrowly avoided insolvency in the early summer of 2023 and is in the process of consolidation, to its very foundations.
In addition to the web-breaking transfer income, there would also be an exorbitant drop in TV money (€21.6 million this season) and reduced sponsorship income. All of this is threatening the existence of the “Old Lady”.
No 3rd league license for Hertha BSC?
If all these aspects (no transfer income, less TV money, less sponsorship income) are added together, the probability that there will be no license for the 3rd league for the Berliners in the event of Hertha’s relegation in 2025 is quite high.
This is also due to the respective organizations. While the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 run under the league association DFL, the 3rd division is organized by the German Football Association (DFB).
While the DFL takes the growth potential of the respective club into account when awarding licenses, the equity of the clubs is what counts most in the 3rd division.
Hertha, however, has little to none of this. According to the financial report for the second half of 2024, negative equity amounted to €32.5 million. Liabilities amounted to €53.9 million according to the half-year report
As a soccer club, the best way to solve this is to generate transfer profits. However, this would require a team with quality. This is available on paper, but if Hertha are relegated in 2025, they are not feasible…
If the 3rd division is not an option after Hertha’s relegation, where would the “Old Lady” play?
In all likelihood, it would then continue in the fourth-tier Regionalliga Nordost. The licensing process is much more relaxed in the RL Nordost.
The curious thing is that Hertha BSC’s second team currently plays in the Regionalliga Nordost. Should the professionals be relegated, the second team would also have to be “forcibly relegated”.
As none of the current Hertha players have a valid contract for a new start in the Regionalliga, a completely new team would have to be built in the short transfer period in the summer of 2025…
