Serie A, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 6:00 PM
A top game? Definitely in terms of the name, but we can at least doubt whether these two really play a leading role in the Serie A championship betting. On Saturday, the Allianz Stadium is the scene of a very special duel.
The kings of draws welcome a team that is currently out of the international places. Or to put it another way: time for my Juventus AC Milan betting tip! In it, I will tell you why, in my opinion, the home side don’t have the best chances.
Still unbeaten after 20 rounds – not many clubs in Europe’s top leagues can say that! Juventus Turin can do just that, and yet the Bianconeri are an incredible 14 points behind the leaders.
In recent years, it has definitely not been easy being a fan of the Old Lady, but in the current 2024/25 season, supporters sometimes can’t believe their eyes. Their team, it’s like a curse, just keeps sharing the points!
In 13 of 20 games, they took home exactly one point, and seven of the last eight matches ended in a draw. Incidentally, it doesn’t matter which region of the table the opponents come from.
Whether it’s Lecce, Atalanta Bergamo, Torino in the derby or bottom-of-the-league Venezia, the fans already know what will probably happen before the final whistle. What kind of draw does Juve like best?
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Four times 1:1, four times 0:0, four times 2:2 and a 4:4 against Inter Milan, you can pretty much choose how many goals there will be. From a defensive point of view, it is important to mention that there have been no clean sheets in seven games.
Based on these numbers, you can probably already imagine that there is no real home advantage either. The Bianconeri have only won three times at their own stadium, out of ten attempts!
3:0 against Como on the first matchday, 1:0 against Lazio in October and 2:0 against FC Turin a month later, if Juventus is victorious, then at least always in combination with a clean sheet.
Four of their last five home games have ended 2-2, so it makes sense that I take a look at exactly this result bet at Betano. If the clash against Milan produces exactly this result, your courage would pay off at odds of 16.5.
At the same time, it can be seen that Juve have always scored exactly two goals in each of the last five games (including the 2-0 win against Turin). This even suggests two betting options to me.
On the one hand, you can bet on “over 1.5 goals for the home team” and get odds of 2.30 for this at Betano. On the other hand, there is a great tip at Interwetten that reads: Juve will score exactly twice. That would result in odds of 3.65.
The white and blacks will be worrying until kick-off about whether Dusan Vlahovic and Francisco Conceicao will be able to play, while Arkadiusz Milik is definitely not ready for the game against Milan.
Incidentally, the Old Lady has played against Milan twice in the last few weeks. In the league in November, it was a 0-0 draw, and a few days ago in the Super Cup, it was a 1-2 defeat. One win in the last nine games, which came about as a result of an own goal? That’s not much!
Nine goals were scored in the last eight duels, only three of them by Juve. 0:0, 0:1, 1:1, 0:3, 0:0, the most recent home games were really anything but successful. And yet, our tax-free bookmakers continue to place their trust in Juventus.
The odds for the weekend show us an average of 2.20 to 3.45. Of course, this also has to do with the fact that Milan are seventh in the race. But: the three-point gap to Juve shouldn’t be a problem, because they were once lower on the table.
Seven draws? Surely they don’t want to become Juventus 2.0! The Red & Blacks have won two of their last seven games. 2-1 against Como and 1-0 against Hellas Verona, the team put in a lot of effort against relegation candidates.
At least there have only been two defeats in the last eight away games, and a narrow 1-2 defeat at Fiorentina or Atalanta can happen quickly. 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 – all three away defeats followed the same pattern.
The absences of Noah Okafor, Samuel Chukwueze and Ruben Loftus-Cheek don’t exactly play into Milan’s hands, because with 29 goals from 19 match days, it’s certainly not as if everyone is satisfied offensively.
Admittedly, what Juventus Turin is doing in this 2024/25 season is very difficult to grasp. Yes, defeat is being avoided from game to game, but let’s be honest: no fan wants to see the constant draws anymore!
With Milan, a bogey team is now also arriving, the last few years have been marked by missed victories and far too few goals. The Rossoneri are not in top form, but then again, neither is Juventus itself.
Of course, I can also imagine VERY well that both teams will end this match with exactly one point. But since I think Milan is more likely to score the lucky punch, I have decided on the following bet:
Milan will not lose in Turin!