Bundesliga Matchday 7, Saturday, 19.10.2024 at 15:30
At the start of my Leverkusen Frankfurt betting tip for the 7th Bundesliga matchday, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the game won’t end 0-0.
In fact, I’m expecting a high-scoring encounter between Bayer and SGE on Saturday afternoon, in which Leverkusen won’t lose out in the end.
I therefore see my tip “Double chance 1X & Over 2.5 goals” (1.57 @Betano) as a certain inevitability. In general, the question for me is how sustainable Frankfurt’s current run of form is.
Can the Hessians be right at the top this season or will they have lost touch with the top again by the second half of the season at the latest?
The fact is that after the unfortunate opening defeat to BVB (0:2), SGE have not lost in all competitions and recently managed to snatch a 3:3 draw against FC Bayern in literally the last minute.
At the same time, Bayer Leverkusen let a 2:0 lead slip against newly promoted Kiel and had to settle for a 2:2 draw.
I’m taking this momentum into account in my Leverkusen Frankfurt prediction and am betting on the “double chance 1X” and not on a home win for the defending champions.
And as you are used to, I will of course present you with further betting alternatives on a silver platter.
The betting providers’ forecast?
I can only recommend the classic 1×2 odds to you with gritted teeth.
The odds for a home win for the Werkself are only 1.40. In view of the starting situation, this value is simply too low for me.
The draw (5.20) and the away win (6.80) are in the range of a risk bet.
If I had to choose, I would probably go for the draw. However, I wouldn’t feel comfortable without the double chance in this case.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Frankfurt: This is what ChatGPT
predicts and, as if on cue, our Leverkusen Frankfurt AI prediction follows on from this. In fact, ChatGPT recommends the bet “Victory Frankfurt” as a high-risk bet.
The argument in favor: The odds are really very strong given Frankfurt’s performances this season. The argument against: SGE won’t win in Leverkusen without a larger portion of luck.
In the medium-risk betting tip, the AI is aiming for a game with over 3.5 goals. I definitely go along with this.
I consider a 2:2 to be a realistic scenario. I can also get something out of a Leverkusen win with goals against.
The low-risk tip (Leverkusen score the first goal) gives me a bit of a headache.
Of course, there’s a higher probability that Bayer will score first at home. Ultimately, however, these types of “match progression bets” are always too close to a game of dice for me.
After all, even a blatant underdog can take a lucky lead (e.g. through a set-piece).
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Frankfurt
Nobody expected Bayer Leverkusen to perform as confidently this season as they did in the historically successful previous season.
However, the current problems in defense are surprising in their extent. While Bayer conceded just 24 goals in the championship season, they have now conceded twelve.
If you want to take a little risk, you can consider the bet “Frankfurt will score at least two goals”. The odds of 3.00 offer a really lucrative incentive.
This becomes all the clearer when you take a look at Eintracht Frankfurt’s offensive performances.
Before the seventh matchday, SGE has 14 goals to its name. Only Bayern (20), Bayer (16) and Stuttgart (15) have been more successful.
Of course, Omar Marmoush is mainly responsible for the Hessian scoring spree. The Egyptian is responsible for eight goals alone. Statistically, Marmoush has scored every 63 minutes this season.
So it goes without saying that a Marmoush goal will also be the focus of attention for the game against Leverkusen. Oddset Sportwetten is already offering odds of 3.30 for just one goal from the attacker. In my opinion, there aren’t many better betting alternatives for the duel.
Ratings analysis
Phew, when I looked at the odds for the simple over/under bets, I half fell out of my rocking chair.
The odds for a match with over 2.5 goals slipping below the 1.40 mark is something you rarely see in the Bundesliga (excluding FC Bayern).
Accordingly, the odds for the bet “Over 3.5 goals” are also well below average at 1.95. Rather irritating in this context is the evaluation of the classic “Both teams score”
Here the odds rise to a solid 1.55 and, in my opinion, can even be played as a single bet without a Bet365 bonus. If you don’t want to take much risk, this is the right place for you in my opinion.
The bet “Draw at half-time” is also worth a look. If you’re expecting an even exchange of blows, you can pick up excellent odds of around 2.70 with this bet.
Given the starting position, is a 1:1 at half-time completely out of the question?
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt odds:
If you take a look at the current Bundesliga home table, the surprise should not be small.
After six completed matchdays, Leverkusen are only in ninth place in the home table. Only one of three home games has been won.
They lost points against Kiel and Leipzig (2:3). At the same time, Frankfurt have won two of their first three away games and scored an average of two goals per game.
From this perspective, too, Bayer Leverkusen are by no means in for a walk in the park on Saturday.
SGE with problems against Bayer!
The direct comparison between Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt serves up a number of very interesting statistics.
First of all, it should be noted that Bayer have the edge overall. Of the 80 previous duels, Leverkusen have won just under half (39). In addition, the Hessians have drawn 13 and won 28.
Last season, the Werksclub had no real problems with the SGE.
In the first half of the season, Bayer dispatched Eintracht 3-0 at home. In the second half of the season, Xabi Alonso’s team strolled to a 5:1 win in Frankfurt.
If you now add Leverkusen’s 3-1 win in the 2022/23 season, the bet “Double chance Bayer & Over 2.5 goals” would have been successful in each of the past three duels.
Leverkusen’s home strength against Frankfurt is also striking. Of the 40 home games so far, only six have been lost
With nine draws, 25 wins have been achieved. Accordingly, the goal difference is clearly in favor of the Rhinelanders (91:41).
Impressive: Bayer Leverkusen have won all of their last nine Bundesliga home games against Frankfurt. The 2.5-goal mark has been broken on eight occasions.
Frankfurt’s last away win to date dates back to the 2013/2014 season. A good ten years ago, the Hessians won 1-0 in Leverkusen.
My Leverkusen Frankfurt tip:
Eintracht Frankfurt are currently on a strong offensive run and, in Omar Marmoush, have a top-class striker in their ranks.
As Bayer Leverkusen are not particularly solid defensively, I don’t expect the defending champions to get away without conceding a goal(s) on Saturday.
However, since I consider Bayer to be the more mature team and the nominal home advantage as well as the direct comparison also speaks in favor of the Werkself, my Leverkusen Frankfurt betting tip is: Bayer will not lose and at least three goals will be scored.
My tip: Double chance 1X & Over 2.5 goals
