Nice – St. Etienne Tip Ligue 1 relegation, second leg on Friday, 29.05.26 at 20:45
Until shortly after New Year’s Day, the OGC competed in the Europa League, but now they are threatened with relegation from the highest French league again after 24 years. And according to my Nice St. Etienne tip for the second leg, this danger will resonate until the final whistle!
Fear was to paralyze the “eagles” from the south of the country again. Consequently, I trust the selection Under 2.5 goals, as it is currently traded by verified bookmakers at odds of around 1.65.
Even the first exchange of blows was so uneventful with a combined xG value of just 0.35 that it was not possible to cut together a 2-minute highlight video. That’s exactly how it should be on Friday evening in the Allianz Riviera.
Nice vs. St. Etienne AI predictions:
While I hinted in my introduction that the OGC could go down, I agree with our data model that it’s the slightly less likely scenario.
The calculated Nice–St. Etienne AI forecast has shown that Nice does not descend to odds of around 1.44 in the Betano app enjoys slight value. And I see it exactly the same way.
The second division team did not achieve anything at all in the first leg despite home advantage and did not fire a single shot on goal. However, this is hardly surprising, as the promotion prospect is missing several key players and now the loss of defensive boss Irvin Cardona is also threatening.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Nice |
Draw |
Victory St. Etienne |
| 49.2% |
29.3% |
21.5% |
Whether OGC will swing the thing home within 90 minutes is a tricky question. However, I show great confidence that the selection St. Etienne meets 2.27 has more than just a 50 percent probability of occurrence.
Nice has only lost at home to top teams such as PSG and Rennes in the calendar year 2026 anyway and should therefore dictate the game against the second division team in the second leg.
Last but not least, there is a certain Nice St. Etienne bet that halves your risk – half-time or full-time: a draw at 1.60.
What you need to know about Nice vs. St. Etienne betting
- The starting position after the first leg: The first duel on Tuesday at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard ended with a goalless 0-0 draw after an extremely tough game with few chances. The decision for the last place in Ligue 1 is therefore completely open.
- Nice’s ghost game disadvantage: After violent fan riots and a pitch storm on the last matchday against Metz, OGC has to play this decisive second leg in their own stadium completely behind closed doors.
- Ines crisis and Puel factor: The fall of Nice (from Champions League contenders to relegation) is causing huge unrest in the club. After only two wins from 18 games, returning coach Claude Puel is under gigantic pressure to avert relegation.
- St. Étiennes Momentum: “Les Verts” came into the relegation as third in the Ligue 2 table with a powerful tailwind. Defensively, Philippe Montanier’s team was extremely solid in the first leg and hardly allowed anything against Nice’s harmless offense.
