Brazil Serie A Matchday 18, Sunday, 21.07.2024 at 02:00
Top-class soccer is definitely on the cards in Brazil’s top division this weekend. I’m dedicating myself to Serie A and especially the Palmeiras Cruzeiro betting tip with a match combination.
Both teams are currently among the six best teams in the league, but Cruzeiro suffers from a chronic weakness on the road that has kept me thinking about this game. Accordingly, I opt for odds of 2.40 at Winamax for “Palmeiras to win without conceding a goal.”
The best sports betting apps made it easier for me to research this game and quickly confirmed that Palmeiras is the clear favorite with odds of up to 1.62.
Cruzeiro are only four points behind in the table and have recently picked up three wins in a row. Nevertheless, at Sunmaker and Co. betting odds of over 6.00 for an away win.
“Away” is the decisive keyword in the case of the visitors. Away from home, Cruzeiro cannot be compared with the team at home.
In particular, his team’s attacking play is likely to unintentionally accelerate coach Fernando Seabra’s premature ageing process
Nine guest appearances are enough to draw initial conclusions. These do not bode well for Cruzeiro.
Sixth in the table, they have only won two away games, shared the points in two away appearances and returned from five away trips without any points in their luggage.
In addition to the phobia of long-distance travel, the opponent is a decisive factor for my Palmeiras Cruzeiro betting tip. The home side can call themselves the record champions of the Brazilian Serie A and are currently second in the table
For four years, Palmeiras coach Abel Ferreira has been firmly glued to the home side’s bench and has orchestrated Verdão’s successes.
His classic 4-2-3-1 system offers a fantastic balance of defensive stability and space for the ball-winners.
This manifests itself in the numbers, which point to another championship celebration at the end of this season.
The Alviverde got off to a disastrous start to the season at home, going winless in three consecutive home games and then having to regroup.
Whatever happened after that brief spell of misery worked. The Porco have won six home games in a row recently, two of the last three even without conceding a goal.
Goals conceded are rarely to be found in the home side’s statistics anyway. The runners-up have kept a clean sheet in 47 per cent of their league games
Over the 17 matchdays played so far, Palmeiras have conceded just 0.8 goals per game – the second-best figure in Serie A!
However, there is no question of them staying in their own penalty area. Instead, coach Ferreira combines defensive discipline with a greed for big chances, of which no other league rival has created more so far (43).
Cruzeiro lack big chances in away games. Just six goals in nine appearances on the road have diminished hopes of a surprise win against the runners-up.
However, I don’t expect a game that will be remembered for its many goals. Palmeiras (17.7 xGA) and Cruzeiro (17.8 xGA) have put together two remarkable backlines.
I think the most likely outcome is a narrow home win, possibly 1-0 or 2-0. In any case, the best expected attack in Serie A (34.1 xG) should not leave the field without scoring in front of a home crowd.
On average, the Seabre squad has conceded 1.44 goals per away game. You could perhaps place this odds boost on the odds of 2.70 for an exact multi-result (1:0, 2:0 or 3:0).
Abel Ferreira is likely to come up with some brilliant ideas on the tactics board, otherwise Palmeiras’ second-most touches in the opposition penalty area would hardly be possible (423).
When the home side get into the box, they have the necessary dribbling quality. The Alviverde players have already been brought down four times and won a penalty.
If their playful means in possession are not enough, aggressive pressing could help the Brazilian record winners.
Palmeiras won more balls in the final third of the pitch than any other Serie A club (4.6 per game) and created plenty of opportunities as a result.
In purely tabular terms, this match is a top game. However, the bookmakers’ odds reveal that it is a top match with a clear favorite.
This role belongs to the home side, who have won six home games in a row and are up against one of the weaker away teams in Serie A.
My Palmeiras Cruzeiro betting tip is therefore: Palmeiras win without conceding a goal