RB Leipzig – BVB betting tip
What is it now? The decisive match for Champions League qualification or “just” the clash for fourth place?
The starting position ahead of the match on the 31st Bundesliga matchday between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund is downright curious and should not be neglected in the betting tip selection.
Accordingly, in my RB Leipzig Dortmund betting tip, I have also refrained from a classic 1×2 bet and focused on a goal bet with “Under 3.5 goals” (1.78 @Oddset).
But what’s the problem with this match? Let me break it down for you: Under normal circumstances, the tension couldn’t be greater. If RB win, the Saxons will extend their lead over BVB (and thus to fifth place) to five points. The Champions League would therefore be very close.
If Borussia win, on the other hand, the Black & Yellows will overtake RB and have CL qualification in their own hands on the home straight of the season.
None of this could matter at the end of the season, however, if Germany defends second place in the new UEFA annual rankings and thus secures an additional Champions League place for the coming season. Ultimately, it would not be Leipzig OR Dortmund playing in the top flight – but both.
To top it all off, this special circumstance is spiced up by the fact that BVB have the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against PSG immediately after the game against RB, where – incidentally – they could pick up crucial points for the aforementioned annual standings.
So the central question in my RB Leipzig BVB prediction is: Will BVB really give it their all in Leipzig or is the focus already on Paris?
The prognosis of the betting providers?
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that top bookmakers like NEObet Germany obviously reflect the special starting position for everyone in their RB Leipzig Dortmund odds.
For example, the odds for a Dortmund away win at around 4.50 seem to me to be a clear indication. The fact that even a draw makes it over the 4.00 mark is more than just a hint.
The home win odds of around 1.70 fit the picture all too well. One thing is clear for the major bookmakers: Leipzig is the clear favorite
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Dortmund
The Saxons’ clear favoritism is no coincidence, of course. For RB, Dortmund’s math games only play a limited role. If Leipzig win their home game, they can basically plan for the top flight. And that’s how the fourth-placed team will perform.
Especially as the form curve speaks in Leipzig’s favor. In the last seven Bundesliga games, they have scored 19 out of a possible 21 points. Together with new champions Leverkusen, this makes them the most in-form team in the Bundesliga.
RB have also scored at least two goals in 6 of those seven games. At the same time, however, they have not conceded a goal in 3 of their last 4 games.
Statistically, the bet “Leipzig to win & both teams to score” is therefore an excellent value bet with odds of 2.60. But why do I still not believe in a full-blown scoring festival?
Quite simply: In the games against the top teams Bayern and Real Madrid (2x) as well as in-form Mainz, the bet “Under 3.5 goals” would have led to success in each case.
The high-scoring games in recent weeks have only been against weaker teams or teams with poor form (Freiburg, Bochum, Cologne – sorry to all Cologne fans). And BVB don’t belong in the latter category
I’m not assuming that BVB coach Edin Terzic will be resting any regular players ahead of the PSG game against RB Leipzig.
Ultimately, however, I could imagine that Borussia will lack the very last percentage points to put up a fight against the Saxons. The upcoming Champions League semi-final is not an everyday occurrence and will undoubtedly play a role.
I therefore don’t expect any heroics against RB, especially offensively. If BVB scores less than two goals in Leipzig, odds of around 1.55 can be dusted off.
The following statistics are also interesting: After the success against Bayern, BVB have played four top games (Stuttgart, Atletico (2x), Leverkusen).
They only won at home against the Spaniards. So if I were forced to make a 1×2 prediction, I would bet on Borussia losing in Leipzig
Analysis of odds
It is clear that our bookmakers expect an above-average high-scoring duel between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund.
The odds for a match with over 2.5 goals are only around 1.40. The counter bet “Under 2.5 goals” is listed much higher at 2.90.
The classic “Both teams to score” is in the same vein. Here too, the odds of 1.40 are below average.
At this point, I don’t want to disagree too much. The scenario I have in mind for the match includes both bets as well as my main tip.
In fact, I consider a 2:1 win for Leipzig to be the most likely scenario. The result bet is at odds of around 9.00 and offers excellent value in my opinion
Dortmund is not a points supplier
The home strength of Leipzig is obvious. In the first 15 home games of the current Bundesliga season, they only suffered two defeats.
Ten games were won with three draws. On the other hand, Borussia have an impressive away record. With eight wins, six draws and just one defeat, they are the second-best away team in the league after Leverkusen.
So if you want to consider the “double chance X2” (odds at 2.20), you can refer to Dortmund’s previous performances at their opponents’ grounds and take a closer look in the Betway app, for example.
From my point of view, however, this tip is still in the range of a risk bet due to the special starting position
Will Leipzig’s run of success continue?
The balance of the direct comparison is extremely even. After 17 matches, Leipzig have won seven, BVB have drawn two and BVB have won eight.
In the first half of the current season, Leipzig won in Dortmund (3:2), extending their recent run of successes against Borussia.
In fact, RB have won four of their last five encounters with Dortmund
The Black & Yellows’ only win against RB since the 2020/21 season came in the previous season. BVB won 2:1 at home in the second half of the season.
Although there has been an above-average number of goals between the two teams to this point, nine of the 17 matches so far have ended with three or fewer goals.
Fittingly: Two of the most recent three duels have not featured more than 3.5 goals.
In any case, it is striking that there have been noticeably fewer goals to marvel at in Leipzig than at Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park.
A total of just 18 goals were scored in Leipzig’s eight home games. BVB were much more prolific with 35 goals.
This also reinforces my view that we won’t be facing an open exchange of blows on Saturday
My Leipzig BVB tip:
The special conditions make me doubt that BVB will put all their eggs in one basket in Leipzig and get involved in an offensive spectacle.
Instead, Borussia will probably be looking for a controlled encounter in order to conserve their energy for the match against PSG in the Premier League.
I therefore do not expect a high-scoring draw, nor do I expect Borussia to go down to defeat in Leipzig.
My RB Leipzig BVB betting tip is therefore: There will be less than 3.5 goals in total
