Champions League, Wednesday, 27.11.2024 at 18:45
The footsteps of Sturm Graz coach Säumel could hardly be bigger. His predecessor Ilzer led the team to a league and cup double and left behind a perfectly coordinated and talented squad that is hungry for more triumphs.
On matchday 5 of the Champions League, Sturm Graz urgently need a win from their new coach to lift themselves off the bottom of the table.
The pressure is high, but the quality of the squad gives cause for hope. My Sturm Graz betting tip highlights the best bets for this crucial clash for the hosts.
In doing so, I will pay particular attention to the scenarios relevant to betting and not forget that the generous Bwin bonus conditions provide the perfect basis for any soccer bets.
But what can Säumel do that even Ilzer couldn’t? The situation is serious: Sturm Graz have lost all four games in the UEFA Champions League this season.
Should they also lose to Girona, that would be a negative record – five consecutive defeats at the start of a single European Cup campaign is unprecedented for Graz (excluding qualifying matches).
However, my Sturm Graz Girona prediction does not assume the worst! With the new coach, they could turn the corner, even if Girona are currently ahead on the betting markets as an in-form newcomer. However, a point win for Sturm remains within the realms of possibility.
And don’t forget: In the top flight, double winners Sturm Graz have to travel to Klagenfurt for their home games. Although the Styrians have fond memories of the Wörthersee Stadium, they would still prefer to play at home.
The bookmaker forecast
The Sturm Graz Girona odds differ significantly. Girona is the favorite with odds of 2.10 – the bookmakers believe that the Spaniards are a little more likely to win.
Sturm Graz, on the other hand, are given odds of 3.15 on average, which means that the chances of a home win are considered slightly lower on the betting markets.
KI prediction Sturm Graz vs Girona: ChatGPT
The Girona Sturm Graz AI prediction includes some interesting, but also extremely daring betting suggestions.
The high risk tip, “Girona over 2.5 goals”, doesn’t seem entirely realistic to me. Sturm Graz have not conceded that many goals in the top flight this season, which makes this bet a risky choice. I would prefer a more conservative approach here.
The second suggestion is a comparatively safer version, “Double chance X/2 and over 2.5 goals in the match”. However, this one doesn’t really convince me either – starting with the odds.
I can understand the idea behind it, but overall I think the forecast is too risky. The chance of a win for the Styrians is real!
The lower risk tip, “Graz under 1.5 goals in the match”, basically appeals to me. After all, Sturm could actually have difficulties getting through in attack.
But odds of 1.45 are too low for me to call it a really low-risk tip. Higher odds would definitely be more attractive here.
In summary, this is a Sturm Graz Girona AI prediction from ChatGPT with rather questionable recommendations in my opinion.
Analysis: Sturm Graz vs Girona
Strong how Sturm Graz have survived the change of coach so far. Anyone who thought the Styrians would collapse was wrong. After a 2:1 win against Hartberg, they made a real example of Austria Klagenfurt last weekend (7:0).
In addition, their last appearance in the Champions League was promising, as they were only beaten by Borussia Dortmund by a wafer-thin margin of 0:1.
All in all, new coach Säumel is certainly not starting from scratch (apart from the points tally in the UCL, of course). The team is first-class by Austrian standards and shouldn’t be without a chance against Girona.
I also think the Catalans are beatable because there is currently little to remind us of their dream season in 2023/24.
In the league, they are bobbing around somewhere in mid-table and in the top flight, they have only picked up three points with three defeats so far.
The aforementioned 2-0 win came at home against soccer lightweights Slovan Bratislava, after the Slovakians almost managed to salvage a 0-0 half-time draw and take the lead themselves.
Girona will definitely need to come up with more away from home and when they host the Austrian double winners.
Ratings analysis
The prospect of a low-scoring game is massively underrated in my opinion. The under-2.5-goal bet at around 2.30 offers excellent odds, especially when you consider that both teams have not exactly delivered high-scoring games in the past.
If you prefer a lower-risk option, you could also go for “Under 3.5 goals” at around 1.45 – a solid bet considering Graz’s defensive approach and Girona’s weakness on the road.
Girona are still waiting for their first away goal in the Champions League, which further increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
Sturm Graz vs Girona odds: The international comparison doesn’t suit the team from Graz!
The headline says it all! Sturm Graz have a particularly difficult time in European duels against Spanish teams. They have never won against a Spanish team, only drawing once and losing five times.
In their four matches in the Champions League, they have always come away losers, conceding a total of 18 goals.
For their part, Spanish teams have won five of their last six away games against Austrian teams in the top flight (one defeat, 0:1 by Sevilla against RB Salzburg in December 2021).
These statistics therefore clearly speak in favor of the better quality “La Liga”.
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Sturm Graz – Girona: Goal fireworks or rather a goal drought?
When you look at the Sturm Graz Girona odds, you could believe in spectacular goal fireworks – but on closer inspection, there are several reasons not to.
Sturm Graz have scored just one goal in the current Champions League season, and that was an own goal by Brest defender Edimilson Fernandes.
With just 34 shots and the fewest expected goals (2.23) in the entire group, the Austrians are far from being an internationally recognized goal factory in attack.
Girona are not much better, even if they have already scored four goals of their own.
What is unusual, however, is their tendency to self-sabotage: half of all their Champions League goals against fall into the “own goal” category (4 out of 8).
Even though they have increasingly been able to score through defenders such as David López and Miguel Gutiérrez in attack, Arnaut Danjuma is the only non-defender to have scored a goal so far.
As a result, I don’t think the Catalan offense is accurate enough to expect a high-scoring match on Wednesday either.
All in all, the offense of both teams leaves a lot to be desired, which speaks for an uneventful match. Despite the odds, which might suggest otherwise, you shouldn’t expect a flood of goals.
What you can blindly rely on, however, is that a first-time Bwin registration before Wednesday could be worthwhile. Not only because of the sports betting bonus mentioned at the beginning, but because the bookie offers first-class Sturm Graz Girona odds.
My Sturm Graz Girona betting tip:
Sturm Graz has shown a strong defense this season, and I expect them to be well organized against Girona as well.
Results like 1:0, 2:0 or even a 1:1 I think are very likely, and these are completely covered by my present combination bet. Girona are overrated as they have not been able to build on a strong 2023/24 season so far.
It is even conceivable that they will have to wait for their first away goal in the premier class after this game.
My tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals
