Champions League, Wednesday, 27.11.2024 at 21:00
Peter Bosz is familiar to many German viewers from his time at Borussia Dortmund. His typical 4-3-3 system works brilliantly for PSV, making them the dominant team in the Eredivisie.
Eindhoven have scored an incredible 45 goals this season in just 13 league games (an average of 3.5 goals) and recently shone in the top flight with spectacular attacking soccer (4:0 win against Girona).
Shakhtar Donetsk have been able to score almost nothing so far. The Hirnyky scored their first two goals in this year’s CL edition on the last matchday (2:1 win against YB).
In my PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk betting tip, I expect a one-sided duel that the hosts will shape to their liking.
For odds of 2.62, I am willing to invest my Bet365 betting bonus and play the bet “PSV Eindhoven win without conceding a goal”.
The bookmaker forecast
There are no two opinions about the starting position of this pairing, as you can already see from the PSV Eindhoven Shakhtar Donetsk odds offered by Bet365.
At home, Peter Bosz’s team only receive odds of less than 1.50, which do not promise any significant profit without an add-on.
For Donetsk, with odds of around 7.50 to win, even a point would be considered a success. A possible draw alone seems difficult enough with odds of just under 5.00.
KI prediction PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk: ChatGPT
The artificial intelligence’s assumptions about this duel differ greatly from my basic assumption. If you ask Chat-GPT for a PSV Eindhoven Donetsk bet with varying degrees of risk, the safest option suggested is odds of 1.70 for “Both teams to score”, which you can find at ODDSET.
The explanation: Three out of four CL matches of the hosts ended with goals on both sides.
At least the AI builds its forecast conclusively on this basic assumption and chooses “Over 3.5 goals” for the medium risk, which appears on the betting shelf at Sunmaker at odds of 2.37. In my opinion, the success of this bet depends heavily on the performance of the hosts, who are known to score 3.5 goals per matchday in their domestic league.
The highest risk could also be combined with the two bets mentioned above. “PSV win 3:1” can easily be played with this Winamax betting bonus and, if successful, would lead to a 10.5-fold profit.
Analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Intense attacking soccer without regard for losses has made PSV the best team in Dutch soccer at the moment.
Eindhoven recently won three competitive games in a row and scored a total of twelve goals in this period!
Remarkably, and important for my PSV Eindhoven Shakhtar Donetsk betting tip, the hosts have won each of their last three competitive matches without conceding a goal.
The determination and drive towards the opponent’s goal is combined with extreme counter-pressing under Bosz, which has led to the most ball conquests in the attacking third (8.8 – just like Bayern).
No CL opponent has yet been able to prevent PSV from conceding a goal this season. Even against PSG (1:1) – currently the best expected defense in the premier class (1.9 xGA), the Eredivisie leaders cheered.
Donetsk fought a duel with Young Boys from Bern, who had no points, on the previous matchday and won for the first time in the new Champions League format (2:1).
However, this success should not be overrated. To date, only Bologna (0) and YB 1 have scored fewer goals than the Hirnyky (2).
Ratings analysis
PSV entered the final matchday as favorites for the first time this CL season and immediately lived up to the role. Eindhoven played the debutants from Girona dizzy in their own stadium (4:0).
Three clean sheets in a row and five competitive games in a row with “Over 1.5 goals scored” have lifted the hosts’ confidence to the clouds.
For “PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 goals” the bookmakers don’t have a tempting offer, but for “PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 goals” you can expect odds of around 2.35. Most recently, Bosz’s eleven surpassed this mark in three consecutive competitive matches.
PSV vs Donetsk odds: It’s best at home
The Philips Stadion has a capacity of 35,000. PSV supporters regularly take their seats there and have not yet been disappointed in the domestic league in 2024/25 (6 games, 6 wins).
Eindhoven have also yet to be beaten in their own stadium at international level. The 1:1 draw against Sporting Lisbon was followed by a magnificent 4:0 win against Girona.
Bosz’s side are now unbeaten in twelve European home games (7S, 5U). Another game could well be added to this period.
The fire in the hosts’ attacking play has so far produced 6.5 shots on goal per matchday (7th), which has been good for a total of 5.9 expected goals (17th). Donetsk have not come close to these figures so far.
Deep sleep of the attacking line
Shakhtar Donetsk’s forwards have rarely been in the spotlight in this edition of the top flight.
No other team in the top flight took fewer shots per matchday than the Hirnyky (2.0). In four appearances, the Ukrainian team’s players only took eight shots at the opposing box.
If you look at the distribution of shots on goal in the respective matches, you will find six out of eight shots on goal by the Ukrainians in the last duel with YB (2:1 win).
In other words: Donetsk did not take more than two shots on goal in the first three Champions League matchdays.
The visitors’ poor figures are underpinned by just 3.8 expected goals (30) and only five major chances created (29).
Away from home, Shakhtar have yet to score a single goal, but at least kept the games against Bologna (0-0) and Arsenal (0-1) close.
Of course, there is the possibility that Donetsk will earn a goalless draw. In this case, you can still pick up fantastic odds of 2.20 with a bet on “Shakhtar Donetsk Under 0.5 goals”.
The Hirnyky defense is absolutely fine and did not allow more than 6.5 expected goals in the first four matchdays – that is only just below average compared to all CL participants (20th)
The only two goals scored by the Ukrainian representative so far were in the first half. PSV are even ahead in terms of goals scored before half-time (4).
The goal difference in the first half is still negative (2-4) after four appearances by the visitors, as Donetsk have conceded four out of five goals before the break.
Under these circumstances, a risk bet on “PSV Eindhoven to score over 1.5 goals in the first half” could become a real value bet with odds of 3.40.
My PSV Eindhoven Donetsk betting tip:
PSV are unbeaten in twelve European games at home and only celebrated a smooth 4-0 win over Girona in their last Champions League home game.
It was Eindhoven’s first CL game of the current season without conceding a goal. I suspect that this will not be PSV’s last game without conceding a goal.
Donetsk have been disappointing up front so far and have conceded the fewest shots on goal of all CL participants.
My PSV Eindhoven Donetsk tip: PSV Eindhoven win without conceding a goal!
