EM test match, Saturday, 08.06.2024
There is just over a week to go until the start of the major sporting event of the year, at least for us in Europe. Because on the other side of the pond, the Copa America, which is taking place at almost the same time, is attracting just as much interest.
Meanwhile, I went to my trusted digital betting shop on Saturday to watch the last test match of a very specific European Championship participant.
I noticed that the bookies were offering odds that I intend to take advantage of with my Sweden Serbia tip. Because the payout for a decent result for the Balkan kickers is surprisingly high
Denmark’s match against Sweden should have ended 1-1, but Christian Eriksen proved to be the difference-maker that Sweden lacked with his superb volley from full stretch in the final minutes of the game.
Denmark thus won 2:1 and their beaten Scandinavian neighbors can prove themselves against the next strong European Championship participant on Saturday: Serbia.
However, the Balkan footballers themselves suffered a setback. It was a 2:1 defeat against the ÖFB team, who I expect to spring a few surprises at the 2024 European Championship
Serbia have put in some dismal performances in recent months, including a 4-0 loss to Russia in March, a team that hadn’t played a competitive match of note in years.
In contrast, the performance against Austria was much better. After an early double strike by the Austrian side, the Balkan side came relatively close to a potential 2:2 equalizer, although they ultimately failed to score.
What we can expect in the match against Sweden is that coach Stjkovic will use the same starting line-up as against Austria and possibly even use it in the opening game of the European Championship.
Last Tuesday, the best possible 4-2-3-1 was on show for the Serbs, with Dušan Vlahović as the lone striker
Dusan Vlahovic has been a little subdued in recent weeks and at club level, as against Austria last Tuesday, he has once again failed to do much.
Serbia usually play with a lone striker, which is why either he or Aleksandar Mitrovic has to sit on the bench. Incidentally, the latter only came on late against the ÖFB team.
My speculation: Mitrovic will start against Sweden this time, as he scored a flawless hat-trick in his last appearance against the Scandinavians in September 2022
Attention: I wouldn’t underestimate Sweden’s ability to win friendly matches within their own borders!
Of the last 12 friendly matches in the land of the midnight sun, the “Tre Kronor” have always been able to be photographed by the press in the famous winning pose at the end of the game.
One drawback: 11 of these 12 victories came against smaller soccer powers who will not be taking part in the European Championship in Germany. However, in their last home game in March, they finally managed to beat Albania (1:0).
However, it is also clear that Serbia have a little more to offer than Albania, meaning that the Swedes’ long run of success could come to an end in home matches at the Friends Arena.
After all, they have only won 25% of their direct international matches against this opponent (3 defeats).
The last joint showdown, in which the aforementioned Mitrović played the game of his life, ended in the Balkans with a 4:1 victory for the Serbs, who in my eyes are the slight favorites this time too
Although I’m giving the visitors the role of favorites, the European Championship betting providers see it very differently in their Sweden Serbia odds, which is also a stroke of luck.
This makes it possible for me to use the one or other European Championship free bet that is already available in advance to take a shot at this odds imbalance with a targeted value bet.
Estimating 2.55 for one of the two sides to win assumes a perfect balance of power, which I personally do not see
In addition, don’t forget that Serbia could not only field their European Championship starting eleven, but should of course be in much better shape than the Swedish selection heading into the summer break a week before the start of the tournament.
However, you can also build a safety precaution into your bet by placing a double chance X2 bet, which offers you a possible win of 150% of the stake
Conclusion: Sweden are strong at home in test matches, but have only won once against a European Championship participant in this period. Serbia, on the other hand, defeated the Tre Kronor 4:1 in their last competitive match in the fall of 2022.
Serbia should also be in better form just before the start of the tournament, which should give them an additional advantage. In any case, the bookmakers’ Sweden Serbia odds invite you to place a bet that doesn’t see the visitors leaving empty-handed.
My personal Sweden Serbia betting tip: Double chance X2
