Union Berlin – SC Freiburg betting tip
The bad news up front: It’s going to be complicated. The good news: I’ll spare you unnecessary details.
It’s clear that Union Berlin and SC Freiburg will face off in an extremely explosive duel on the final Bundesliga matchday.
The Berliners want to stay in the league, the Breisgauers want to reach the European Cup. The special starting position naturally plays a major role in my Union Berlin Freiburg betting tip.
And since the capital city side in particular are doomed to win in the battle to stay in the league, things are likely to be intense right from the start. Accordingly, I expect the 2.5-goal mark to be cracked
But let’s break down the table situation a little first. With a two-point deficit to FSV Mainz (15th place), only a win will help the Berliners to escape the relegation zone at the last minute.
Theoretically, they could also overtake Bochum, who are three points behind and in 14th place with a worse goal difference. A defeat, however, would mean direct relegation.
Finally, behind Union lurks 1. FC Köln, three points behind and with a goal difference that is only three goals worse.
In a nutshell: Everything is still possible for Union, from relegation to direct relegation
The betting operators’ forecast?
The do-or-die situation of the Berliners is clearly reflected in the Union Berlin Freiburg odds.
The bookmakers in our bookmaker comparison actually see the Berliners as the favorites. The odds for a home win are 2.15 on average, while an away win is estimated at a much higher 3.40.
Incidentally, I don’t fancy the draw. On the one hand, the odds of around 3.45 are below average. Secondly, I simply do not expect the game to end in a draw.
The starting position suggests that the crowbar will come out at the end of the game and a decision – in one direction or the other – will be forced. And an amicable and peaceful draw just doesn’t fit the picture
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Freiburg
Union Berlin need a win to stay in the league. That much is clear.
The problem: Wins have not been part of Berlin’s repertoire of late. They have not won their last seven games. Of a possible 21 points, just 2 were collected.
To make matters worse, they also suffered an emotional blow last matchday with a 3:2 defeat against relegation rivals Cologne.
They were leading 2:1 until the 86th minute and then went on to lose the game. In general, it is noticeable that Berlin’s defense in particular is losing its nerve in the relegation battle.
In the last five games, they have conceded a total of 14 goals. And that includes the anti-cyclical 0:0 against Gladbach.
Interesting: If Union concede at least two goals against Freiburg, strong odds of 2.80 are due – in my opinion an excellent betting alternative
And no, of course I haven’t forgotten you. I still owe you the starting position for SC Freiburg.
The fact is that Freiburg’s European Cup ambitions depend to a large extent on the outcome of the DFB Cup final.
If Bayer win the cup, eighth place becomes a Conference League place. If FCK win, Freiburg will have to finish seventh.
And with a one-point deficit to seventh-placed Hoffenheim, SCF would be well advised to pick up three points against Union to at least have a chance of securing a European Cup place.
Losing, however, is forbidden. After all, they could be overtaken from behind by Heidenheim, Augsburg and Bremen. However, Freiburg’s current form does not speak in their favor. Only one win in the last six games.
With solid odds of around 1.70, the “Double Chance X2” is still a good betting alternative. Only two of those six games were ultimately lost
Analysis of odds
Unlike me, Happybet Sportwetten does not expect an above-average high-scoring clash between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg.
In fact, the “Under 2.5 goals” is even quoted slightly lower than my main tip “Over 2.5 goals”. This is not least due to Freiburg’s recent statistics.
SCF have never scored more than one goal in each of their last six matches. And indeed, with a total of 44 goals scored ahead of the final Bundesliga matchday, they have the worst offense in the top half of the table.
However, it is also true that the southern Germans have scored at least one goal in eight of their last nine games and are therefore unlikely to come away empty-handed in Berlin.
Since you can basically assume that Union and Freiburg will play out a close duel, the bet “Draw at half-time” will of course be interesting. The odds of around 2.10 are slightly above average and offer great value given the starting position
Berlin with the home record of a relegated team
If you take a look at Union Berlin’s home statistics, it becomes clear why the capital team are now facing relegation after a great previous season.
They won just six of their first 16 home games. Only 1. FC Köln (4 wins) and relegated Darmstadt (1 win) were even less successful on the road.
Freiburg’s away record is ambivalent, however. On the one hand, Streich’s team are seventh in the away table.
On the other hand, they have lost every other away game and have a goal record of -10. SCF are therefore unlikely to be an away force in Berlin either
Four goals from the winner again?
The result of the direct comparison fits the picture perfectly.
With six wins for Berlin, four draws and five victories for SC Freiburg, the statistics are extremely balanced. Fittingly, the first-round clash ended in a draw (0-0).
Prior to that, however, the two teams had scored far more goals. Before the draw, the winner of each match had scored exactly four goals in the last three matches
The Freiburg team won once (4:1), while Union kept the upper hand in their last home game against the Breisgauers (4:2) and won 4:1 in Freiburg.
Berlin’s home record is positive overall. So far, the Irons have only lost one home game against Freiburg. However, with three wins, they have also had to settle for a draw three times.
Strikingly, in three of the last four matches, the first half in particular has been a hotly contested affair
In those three games, a total of ten goals were scored before the break. If the first half is the higher scoring half again this time, you can get great 3.10 odds in the Crazybuzzer app.
Equally striking: In the last seven Bundesliga duels, there have only been two home wins.
The main reason for this, however, was Union Berlin, who have already triumphed three times in Breisgau
My Union Freiburg tip:
As shown, neither Union Berlin nor SC Freiburg have been convincing in recent weeks.
However, the special starting position makes it necessary for both teams to go on the offensive. I think a classic 0-0 draw is simply out of the question.
A lively, heated match is therefore likely to develop, with rough play in front of and inside both penalty areas. I would hardly be surprised to see a penalty whistle or two.
My Union Berlin Freiburg tip is accordingly: There will be more than 2.5 goals scored in the match
