Wolfsburg – Mainz betting tip
Mainz is simply a great team under Bo Henriksen. Dortmund’s B-team or not, the 05ers conceded three goals in 30 minutes to the Champions League finalists last matchday to move above the bottom line.
After this rousing performance, I can turn a blind eye if someone wants to lecture me on FSV’s season-long negative streak of 20 Bundesliga away games without a win and can’t understand my Wolfsburg Mainz tip.
I’ll counter with eight unbeaten Bundesliga games in a row and put my money on motivator Henriksen, who seems to want to clap his team to victory
Like Henriksen, I’m playing my Wolfsburg Mainz betting tip on an away win with odds of 2.25 at Happybet.
The Wolves looked like a team that wants nothing more this season than to get the last 90 minutes over with against Bayern on the last matchday
The prediction of the betting providers?
The Volkswagen Arena is not necessarily the first place a neutral observer thinks of when the question of a cauldron arises. It will be a completely different story in Riyadh in the evening when the big world championship boxing match Fury vs Usyk takes place.
But back to the Volkswagen Arena in the afternoon, where the high-quality VfL team will even have to take on the underdog role in the odds comparison against a relegation candidate. At the top of the table, the Wolves are offering odds of up to 3.20 for a win.
Although Mainz is the weakest away team in the Bundesliga (9 points), it has clearly gained momentum and will be the favorite at the Volkswagen Arena with odds of up to 2.30 to win.
My confidence in the visitors even goes so far as to include a sports betting bonus in my Wolfsburg Mainz betting tip
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Mainz
Ralph Hasenhüttl has saved VfL Wolfsburg from relegation with catastrophic consequences and coached the Lower Saxons into a secure mid-table position.
Under the new coach, VfL won four out of seven league games, but mostly had to deal with mediocre Bundesliga clubs or out-of-form teams.
The turnaround of FSV Mainz 05, who also have good prospects of another year in the German top flight thanks to a change of coach, was somewhat more impressive.
Mainz 05’s defense has been remarkable on the road and has prevented them from conceding a goal in four of their last eight appearances.
Wolfsburg have rarely made an impact in attack this season. The hosts recently went into the showers without scoring in two of their five league games.
Meanwhile, the two opponents differ only minimally in terms of goals scored. Wolfsburg (1.2) and Mainz (1.1) have two of the five weakest attacking lines in the Bundesliga.
However, while Mainz are still fighting to avoid relegation in this game, the motivational basis for a passionate VfL game is not given
Quota analysis
Wolfsburg have won three of their last four league games and have won both of their previous two home games.
Despite this impressive record, the bookmakers are giving odds of up to 3.20 for the home side to win a home game against the supposedly in-form Wolves.
In addition, Mainz are the weakest away team in the Bundesliga on paper (9 points), but are the favorites in this pairing with odds of up to 2.30 to win.
That may sound a little confusing, but it goes right to the heart of my prediction for this match-up. Mainz have been unbeaten for eight matchdays, have impressed under Henriksen with their fire on the pitch and have been pretty solid defensively over the entire season.
The expected goals conceded by the Wolves (43.5 xGA) and Mainz (44.8 xGA) are both below the six best Bundesliga teams, which is why the odds of 2.05 for “Under 2.5 goals” are a clear frontrunner for the Oddset bonus
Motivator, gossip world champion and points summoner
Bo Henriksen was exactly the right choice to replace him on the FSV bench in a threatening situation. He has given the team and club much-needed energy and exemplifies this game after game on the touchline.
Henriksen’s success even extends to Thomas Tuchel’s shelf. The current head coach of the German record champions has scored 21 points in his first 12 games as coach of the 05s – Henriksen has 20 points to his name.
From the outside, the Dane feels like he is clapping for the entire season, which somehow gives his team additional strength. FSV have already claimed five white vests in the 2024 calendar year.
If FSV inflict their 17th defeat of the season on Wolves on the final matchday, they will be guaranteed to stay in the league, as well as a huge celebration for the Rheinhessen team
Does the 34th matchday really have to take place?
Wolfsburg have achieved the minimum target and secured another season in the Bundesliga. The gap between ambition and reality has widened throughout the season, but Ralph Hasenhüttl is set to usher in a new beginning.
The final matchday is no longer necessary for this. Even before the 33rd matchday, VfL were no longer out of contention for relegation and that was evident on the pitch. Wolfsburg were beaten 2-0 by a record-breaking German champions with little chance.
The conditions for more success on the final matchday are atrocious from a purely historical perspective. Wolfsburg were allowed to finish their last four Bundesliga seasons in their own stadium, but were unable to win any of these four final encounters.
That still sounds better than it actually was. Wolfsburg picked up just one point out of a possible twelve on the final matchday of the previous four seasons!
A win for VfL can no longer prevent their weakest Bundesliga record in six years and would be one of the last options for my Wolfsburg Mainz betting tip anyway
For Mainz, there is another incentive at the Volkswagen Arena besides staying in the league. With their first away win of the season, the visitors will prevent their weakest away record in the club’s history.
I don’t expect any goals from either side. Both Wolfsburg and Mainz have ended five of their last eight games with a successful bet on “Both teams will NOT score”.
If someone showed me the odds of 2.27 in the Crazybuzzer app for “Both teams will NOT score” for the first time, I’d be on fire immediately
What almost completely knocked me off my chair, however, was the comparison of ball contacts in the opponent’s penalty area.
Wolfsburg only managed a meagre 672 (14th), putting them a long way behind Mainz (839). With this surprisingly high number, the 05ers have made themselves comfortable among the top seven teams in this category.
Another indicator of a team playing below their expectations can be found in the comparison of expected goals (43.4 xG) and goals scored (36) by Mainz. Only Cologne have a bigger difference
My Wolfsburg Mainz tip:
Mainz are highly motivated, unbeaten for eight matchdays and have their sights set directly on relegation.
Wolfsburg have already put the season behind them and want to consign their sobering season to the history books sooner rather than later.
Both defenses are among the best in the Bundesliga, which is why I don’t expect too many goals.
The comparison of ball contacts in the opponent’s penalty area between Wolfsburg (672) and Mainz (839) is a good indicator for the outcome of this match in my opinion.
My Wolfsburg Mainz tip: Mainz win!!!
