Copa Libertadores 2024, Friday, 16.08.2024 at 02:30
David against Goliath, even though we’re already in the knockout phase? In the Copa Libertadores, the round of 16 matches are finally underway, and even the absolute favorites for the title must first prove that they have what it takes to become champions.
One of them is heavily favored for the first leg in their own stadium. Why is that and why can I imagine a somewhat closer match? I’ll tell you in my Flamengo Bolivar tip and also add why I’m backing a home win by a maximum of four goals
First second, then first, and suddenly out in the round of 16? Flamengo’s performance in last year’s Copa Libertadores was somewhat curious, as they failed to live up to their own expectations.
After a 1-0 win against Olimpia, they were knocked out after all. So much for the review of the past season; the players don’t want to dwell on their experiences for long. The aim is simply to do better in 2024
The Brazilians are not really managing to get into a consistent phase in their league. Third place doesn’t sound bad in principle, but at the same time they have only won twelve out of 21 games.
Perhaps also interesting for your betting tip: Eight of these victories were by just one goal, and we count a 2:1 margin seven times. However, the national results are of course not everything that is put to the test in my analysis
In the Copa, the six matches in the preliminary round were quite turbulent. Three wins to nil, one draw and two defeats? These are the bare figures, which can certainly be explained.
2:0 against Palestino, 3:0 against Millonarios and 4:0 against Bolivar? These three victories, all of them with a clean sheet and several goals scored, were all achieved in their own stadium. But wait – Bolivar? Are they playing each other again in this round of 16?
In fact, they’re playing each other twice again! In the preliminary round, in the aforementioned 4-0 win, the score was already 3-0 after the first 45 minutes and it was the first home game against Bolivar since 2014.
Incidentally, this will also be the first competitive match between the two teams, so the sporting significance that awaits us now is even greater
One of the key players is likely to be striker Pedro. The 27-year-old has netted 29 times in 41 competitive games, making him a hot contender for another goal on Friday.
His partner Everton, often known for his dangerous assists, suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon a few days ago and will therefore be out for a long time. Matias Vina and Guillermo Varela are also suffering from injuries and are very likely to miss out
For our bookmakers, that’s no reason to change the favorites. Flamengo are clearly in the lead, with the odds averaging 1.10 to 26.0.
The visitors from Bolivia have only once reached a Copa semi-final, with the quarter-finals in 2022/23 being a success the last time they took part. So how far can they go this year?
The group stage got off to a really strong start, with Bolivar beating Palestino 4-0 and then winning 3-2 against Millonarios and 2-1 against Flamengo. Important: The win against their current opponents was of course at home.
The “second half” was far less successful, with one three-pointer, a draw and the defeat to Flamengo. The two games that were not won were both played away from home.
David against Goliath, Flamengo against Bolivar! Once again, the two face off against each other, with a home win on the scoreboard in each of the Copa group stages. Flamengo won 4-0 at home.
The home advantage is certainly not to be dismissed, plus of course the fact that the Brazilians know their way around the Copa much better when it comes to the knockout rounds of the competition.
Ultimately, I can’t really imagine Flamengo making a fool of themselves on Friday. At the same time, however, I don’t expect a result that involves a lot of goals, as the home side’s defense is actually too strong for that. Therefore, my final tip is:
Flamengo win by under 4.5 goals
